So what exactly happened to Russell Westbrook's shooting?
In Westbrook's 16-17 MVP season, he shot .343 from 3 on 2.5 makes a game, and nearly 85% from the line on 10.4 attempts. Those are the numbers of a decent shooter. He had never been a sharpshooter, but he had a decent looking shot and put on a famous jump-shooting clinic in a finals game in 2012.
After the best shooting year of his career, some saw the potential for him to continue improving his percentages as his athleticism declined but his IQ improved. He could've aged gracefully.
But what happened post 16-17 was one of the most drastic, high profile shooting declines in the history of the sport, causing the rest of his career to be full of controversy at its best and disastrous at its worst. Normally, players become better shooters as they age and allow freak athletes like Westbrook to prolong their careers. Lebron is the most obvious example of this, but there are countless others.
17-18 saw him shoot 73% from the line, an 11% decrease. Most people pointed to a new rule messing with his routine. Now I'm a big believer in the importance of a good routine, but if you're a good shooter you're a good shooter. I could understand a 5% dip following the rule change, but 11? Not to mention he had many seasons to get used to the rule change and develop a new one. But things only got worse from there.
18-19 he shot 65% from the line, another drastic, 8% dip. He actually rebounded well the following season, shooting 76%, but would never crack the 70% mark after that, and pretty much hovered around the 66% mark for the rest of his career.
His 3-point and mid-range shooting were noticeably worse, too, with multiple seasons shooting under 30% from deep. This cannot be explained by the free throw routine rules. There were reports of hand/finger injuries, but most of these were two his left hand and again, there have been famous instances of players, like Kobe Bryant, playing through a broken pinkie on his shooting hand and still maintaining a decent shooting percentage.
Some people will point to his athleticism to decline which, to me, it was present, but he actually maintained his athleticism pretty well in the twilight of his career. He remained one of the more athletic guards in the NBA for his entire tenure and had some double digit rebounding seasons after 16-17.
Still, he wasn't the freak he was in his 20's. In theory this meant that defenders didn't have to play off him as much to respect the drive and contest his shots better. The reality is in 16-17 he was hitting all kinds of contested shots as he was the MVP and main offensive threat on his team. So he proved he can hit contested shots when his confidence is high. After 16-17 the vast majority of his shots were wide open as defenders completely sagged off him. He had never received that type of treatment up to that point.
Westbrook was constantly criticized for his shot selection in the latter portion of his career, but the truth is most of his shots were open and those were shots he was able to make at a respectable clip early on. So it's hard to blame him for taking them. But unfortunately when you are as bad of a shooter as Westbrook was at that point, nearly every shot, even open ones, are bad. But it was too late for him to turn into Rondo and though he was a good playmaker, he wasn't the b-ball IQ genius Rondo was. Up until the very end he was dynamic enough to "make plays", get to the hole and distort defenses, but he committed too many turnovers and missed too many shots to be anything other than an analytics nightmare. It all stemmed from the shooting decline.
Westbrook has always been known as a hard worker. He was allegedly in the gym working on his shot all of the time. He had time to heal his hand and finger injuries or make the adjustments needed to at least become decent again, if not quite as good as in his peak. He had 8 seasons shooting over 80% from the line. He knows what it takes to make shots and had built up the muscle memory. It's not like Nick Anderson, who got the yips following traumatic misses at the line in the finals. He just got that much worse.
Still, some people will say his confidence was shot and got the yips. You're telling me he had the yips for the entire second half of his career? Someone who was known for his extreme confidence and fearlessness was too nervous to make shots and couldn't adjust at any point during 8 seasons?
No, something happened to his shooting form. Was it finger/hand injuries? How does someone with hand injuries THAT drastic continue to be one of the best rebounding guards in the league and throw down vicious dunks? Upon the eye test, he didn't seem to struggle catching the ball or with being aggressive, and his hands seemed fine to me. There may have been subtle issues, but nothing that could explain the seismic drop off.
I'm not really sure what it was. Maybe he really was in his head all the time, constantly getting traded and hearing all of the chatter around him. Maybe his hand injuries were more serious than I thought. Maybe he didn't put as much time in the gym working on his shooting as we were led to believe. Whatever it was, Westbrook's career is the tale of two halves - the first half as a freak athlete and unique talent consistently improving his shooting, paving the way for him to become a savvy veteran guard who's still a great athlete.
Unfortunately, the second half is the story of a guy who went from a freak athlete to a just great one, who literally forgot how to shoot. I would say most of his issues, shot selection, getting traded, difficulty making as many plays and even his ability to get to the rim (harder to do when defenders are completely sagging off you), were a direct result of his drastic, unheard of shooting decline.
So what was it? Hand injuries? Form just unexplainably broken? Or was he, despite his outward bravado and seemingly confident demeanor, one of the mentally weakest players we've ever seen, shooting with a sense of fear for 8 whole seasons?