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SURABAYA, Indonesia -- Two recent opinion polls show that President Prabowo Subianto's approval ratings have plummeted, with one saying the West Java governor is significantly more popular -- raising questions about Indonesia's political landscape ahead of the 2029 elections.

A poll released on Wednesday by Tempo Data Science, the research unit of Tempo magazine, shows that Prabowo's approval rating dropped from 75% in December last year to 37% in August. The survey had 1,260 respondents from Indonesia's 38 provinces.

Khairul Anam, general manager of Tempo Data Science, attributed the declining public satisfaction mainly to negative perceptions of the economy. "The two main issues putting pressure on people's daily lives are the high prices of necessities and the limited job opportunities," he said.

The result came a month after pollster Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) reported that Prabowo's approval rating had sunk from 81% in November to 51% last month.

Saidiman Ahmad, a researcher and program manager at SMRC, said the president's popularity level followed the same downward trajectory as his flagship programs: free meals for children and opening village cooperatives. Between November last year and July, public satisfaction with the two programs almost halved to just 34% and 25%, respectively.

The two costly programs have sparked a wave of protests in multiple cities over the past year, including the latest one that turned violent late on Thursday in Jakarta, where thousands rallied outside parliament. They were also demonstrating against corruption, inflation and other issues.

SMRC asked respondents to choose their favorite for Indonesia's next leader from among 20 names. Only 14.5% chose Prabowo, while 35% picked Dedi Mulyadi, the governor of West Java. Prabowo's main rival in the 2024 election, Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor, and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming, came third and fourth with around 8% each.

With only Prabowo and Mulyadi in contention, the latter prevailed among respondents with 59% over the former's 28%. The rest of the respondents were undecided.

"If a presidential election were to be held today in Indonesia, Prabowo would likely lose," Ahmad said. "The president's popularity has certainly taken a severe beating this year."

In SMRC's poll last November, Prabowo topped the multi-name chart with 34%, followed by Mulyadi with 19.7%.

Mulyadi, 55, is a politician with Prabowo's Gerindra party, which the president still chairs. Popularly known in Indonesia by his initials KDM, the governor of Indonesia's most populous province -- West Java is home to approximately 50 million people -- is often compared to former President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. Both are seen as populist figures coming from non-elite backgrounds.

Mulyadi's populist bent is fanned by a strong social media presence, with over 12 million followers on TikTok and 9 million subscribers on YouTube.

Rendy Pahrun Wadipalapa, a political scientist at the National Research and Innovation Agency, said Mulyadi is the main beneficiary of Prabowo's diminishing popularity, which presents a dilemma: "Gerindra and Prabowo are almost certainly watching this closely and will likely try to manage Dedi's exposure carefully."

Wadipalapa said Prabowo might decide not to run for re-election, clearing the way for Mulyadi, or try to contain the latter's rise by offering him the vice presidency. But the 74-year-old president has never indicated he will not seek another term. In a February speech, he challenged his critics to "a fight in 2029."

Ahmad said that with his rising popular appeal, Mulyadi might not be happy with the second best option, and might leave Gerindra because "other parties will naturally gravitate towards a popular candidate."

Indonesia has a fragmented political system in which 24 parties competed in the last elections, held simultaneously with the presidential vote in early 2024. Only eight parties met the parliamentary threshold to win seats in the House of Representatives.

The election laws previously required a party or a coalition of parties to command 20% of legislative seats, or 25% of popular votes in the previous legislative election, to be able to nominate a presidential candidate. The constitutional court abolished that clause last year.

Observers doubt Prabowo will run with Gibran as vice president again in 2029 given the evident fallout between the two, and with Gibran's father, the former president. The eldest son of Widodo, Gibran has largely been sidelined from Prabowo's programs since they took over national leadership in October 2024.

Widodo, whose backing of Prabowo was considered vital to his election, has reportedly grown apart from the president, who was his defense minister.

Constitutionally barred from running for a third term, Widodo is also pushing his other son into politics. In 2023 Kaesang Pangarep became chair of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), but it failed to garner the minimum 4% of votes required to win seats in parliament.

Widodo left his old party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), over disagreements on presidential candidates. PDI-P is currently the largest party in parliament and the only one outside Prabowo's coalition.

Instead, the former president last year announced he would throw his weight behind PSI. In June, he started a "political safari" on the party's behalf, starting in Lampung province, followed by a visit to East Nusa Tenggara last month.

PSI Deputy Chairman Andy Budiman said he was optimistic his party will make it into parliament in 2029, saying it is enjoying growing popularity for two reasons: the "Jokowi effect" and, at the former president's urging, "structural consolidation" to establish a presence in every village in Indonesia.

"Jokowi's decision to identify with PSI has undoubtedly raised the party's profile, enabling it to tap into new sources of popular support," Budiman told Nikkei Asia.

Johannes Nugroho is a contributing writer.

Spoiler alert!

>!In Star Leap, the MC will have access to a library in Rovere Academy, Lordlake, Falena, and it contains both old and new lore. It contains information both for new players to the series and also long-term fans of the series.!<

Book: The Ancient Armes Dynasty
Long, long ago, centuries even before the Sindar people arrived, a mighty dynastic nation held sway over this land: the Ancient Armes Dynasty.
Blessed by the power of the Sun Rune, the dynasty flourished beyond compare, its territory once spanning what are now the Queendom of Falena, the New Armes Kingdom, and the Nagarea Theocracy.
But one day, the king’s madness caused the Sun Rune to run out of control. The vast kingdom was destroyed in a single night, reduced to a parched wilderness.
The dynasty’s capital is believed to have stood near Amdort Mountain in what is now central Falena, though no ruins have ever confirmed this. If it truly was burned away without a trace by the Sun Rune, it’s unlikely any will ever be found.

The New Armes Kingdom today claims to be this dynasty’s successor, but shares no real ethnic or cultural link to it. The claim is better read as a political statement, a declaration of intent to “build a nation to rival the Ancient Dynasty.” Since most people now associate “Armes” with the New Armes Kingdom, the ancient one is usually just called “the Ancient Dynasty.”

Book: About House Rovere
Lordlake, celebrated as “the jewel of the Queendom” for its lush greenery and abundant water, was governed by Lord Rovere, head of House Rovere, who poured his heart into the city’s development.
Lord Rovere was beloved by his people. At the time, Falena’s powerful nobility was split into two rival factions, but Lord Rovere skillfully mediated between them, known as the foremost of the pro-Queen faction, loyal to and respectful of the Queen.
The people of Lordlake lived in peace and prosperity, until unrest broke out over a dam built upstream on their water source, sparking the Lordlake Rebellion. In the chaos, the Dawn Rune, kept in the East Palace, was stolen, an unprecedented scandal.

That Lord Rovere himself incited such an uprising was unthinkable. But the Queen’s wrath fell on him regardless. He was executed, and the punishment extended to his entire family, ending House Rovere for good.

Then, by judgment of the Sun Rune the Queen bore, Lordlake’s forests withered and its rivers ran dry, leaving the land a ruin. The grief of anyone who called that place home must have been indescribable.
Galleon, a Queen’s Knight at the time and himself a native of Lordlake, could do nothing to stop the riot in his own hometown. He could only accept Lord Rovere’s death and his homeland’s ruin.

Book: The Sun Rune and the Night Rune
Long ago, the Sun Rune and the Night Rune came into the world as a paired existence, bound by a powerful bond, governing light and darkness together.

But over time the Night Rune grew to resent the Sun Rune’s overwhelming brilliance. Unable to endure it any longer, it transformed itself into a sword, severed the bond, and vanished.

From the fragments of that broken bond, the Dawn Rune and Twilight Rune were born. The two are said to remain at the Sun Rune’s side ever since, watching over and guarding it in place of its lost other half.

Book: Strife Within the Royal Family
This tragedy began in the late 210s of the New Calendar, during the reign of Queen Olhazeta. Her younger daughter, Princess Falzrahm, second in line to the throne, began working the Senate for support, seeking to have her elder sister Princess Shahrewar renounce her position as heir so Falzrahm herself could be elevated to first in line.

It’s said House Barows, having married into Falzrahm’s household, orchestrated this from behind the scenes.

Both Olhazeta and Shahrewar had married into House Godwin, and it’s claimed House Barows, fearing their own waning influence, incited Falzrahm to act. The truth is uncertain, but Falzrahm herself does seem to have genuinely coveted the throne.

The dispute drew in House Godwin and House Barows, and eventually the lesser nobility loyal to each, into open rivalry. Even Olhazeta, once known for her wisdom and decisiveness, was by then elderly and lacked the strength to bring it under control.
It never escalated to open warfare, but a bitter war of intrigue played out in the shadows. Its peak came with Princess Arshtat’s Sacred Games. Though her cousin Haswar, daughter of Shahrewar, was older and higher in succession, Falzrahm and Lord Barows pressured Olhazeta into holding Arshtat’s Sacred Games first, hoping to establish Falzrahm’s claim as a fait accompli.

To everyone’s surprise, the winner of the Games, and Arshtat’s hand, was a young traveler from a foreign land.

Had either House Barows or House Godwin actually won, the losing side might well have risen up in arms. Ironically, the outcome cooled tensions instead.

That peace lasted only until Olhazeta’s death in 226. With the throne now within reach, the feud reignited before mourning had even ended, and rapidly spiraled into open bloodshed, driven above all by the assassins of the Nether Gate. Though sworn to serve the Queen directly, with the throne vacant they took contracts from both princesses’ camps.

Their actions brought unprecedented bloodshed to the Sun Palace. Both House Godwin and House Barows suffered losses, and both princesses’ husbands were struck down as well.

Shahrewar, never especially strong-willed, lost the will to keep fighting and ceded the throne to her sister. But Falzrahm, consumed by paranoia, suspected even this was a trick, and ordered the Nether Gate to kill Shahrewar.

Falzrahm finally took the throne, only to die of illness two years later, an oddly quiet end given the blood spilled to reach it.

The wound this strife left on Falena will not heal easily. Still, there is some comfort in knowing that Arshtat, Sialeeds, and Haswar are determined never to repeat their mothers’ mistakes, and stand together in solidarity.

Book: Oboro Detective Agency, Past and Present
Oboro Detective Agency was founded by the famed detective Oboro, run on the motto “swift investigation, strict confidentiality, one path to the truth.”

Based aboard a ship in Raftfleet, the agency’s fleet in the Queendom of Falena, its exceptional intelligence-gathering supported the army retaking the capital from the shadows, contributing to the end of the Sun Rune War.

The agency’s work covers everything: uncovering facts hidden behind incidents, tracking down lost heroes through background searches, and exposing buried pasts, some reportedly including truths long buried in history.

But once the war ended, Oboro himself vanished. Rumor places him in the Nagarea Theocracy, though no one has ever confirmed it. The investigators left behind still keep the agency’s sign up, carrying on its work in his absence.