u/Due-Coach6021

Following up from yesterday’s discussion, this week’s newsletter is live.

SpaceX S-1 files this week. Every space stock gets repriced against a $2 trillion benchmark. Thoughts on the IPO?

RKLB traded through every analyst target on the Street this week including the most bullish at $150. Every covering analyst is now technically in upgrade territory. Is anyone expecting a pull back on Monday?

The ASTS debate in the comments proved one thing, a revenue miss is not a valid determinant at this stage. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all validated the model the day after earnings. What could happen to shake people’s confidence?

Overview this week is LUNR, specifically a $6.24 billion defence contract that didn’t get the coverage it deserved.

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NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

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Reposting as Reddit removed for ‘financial advice’, however given the 50 positive comments, best to repost again!

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Probably the most important week in space equities since I started covering the sector. Full breakdown below.

RKLB: past every analyst target
Stock traded through every single price target on the Street, including the most bullish at $120. New Street initiated this week at $150, now the highest target anywhere. Space Force Chief of Space Operations visited their facility. 1,000th Rutherford engine off the production line. Second acquisition of 2026, Motiv Space, the company that built the Mars rover arm.

ASTS: missed revenue by 60%, stock up 20%
Q1 revenue $14.7M vs $36.6M consensus. Net loss $191M. Didn’t matter. Reaffirmed $150M–$200M full-year guidance, mid-June Falcon 9 launch for BlueBird 8/9/10 still on track, peak data speed of 98.9 Mbps confirmed on in-orbit satellite. Then AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon announced a joint venture to extend mobile via satellite. The market looked straight through the quarter.

LUNR: record quarter + surprise UK acquisition
$186.7M Q1 revenue, nearly 3x year-on-year. First positive Adjusted EBITDA. $1.06B backlog. Also announced acquisition of Goonhilly Earth Station, 44 antennas, expanding into cislunar communications. Roth Capital raised to $50.

Golden Dome
CBO put the cost at $1.2 trillion over 20 years. RKLB and Raytheon selected for the Space-Based Interceptor programme this week. ASTS named to the SHIELD contract pool. This is a structural tailwind now, not a headline.

SpaceX S-1
Public filing expected May 18–22. Roadshow starts June 8. $2tn valuation. Every space stock is being repriced around this benchmark.

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A few things I’m curious what this sub thinks:
- ASTS missed revenue by 60% and went up 20%, is the market right to look through it or is this a trap?
- LUNR is trading well above every analyst target except Roth’s $50. Is this overpriced or ahead of the curve?
- HAWK just IPO’d at $26 and hit $34 day one. Is anyone here getting in or waiting for the first earnings?

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NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

This week was probably the most eventful in space equities since I started covering the sector. Full breakdown below.

RKLB +34%
Record $200M quarter, up 63% YoY. Four analyst raises in one session. TD Cowen now at $120.

HawkEye 360 (HAWK) IPO
New space stock worth knowing about. RF signals intelligence — detects radio emissions from ships, aircraft and military assets globally. Profitable at IPO, 80% gross margins, $302M backlog. Closed +30% day one.

ASTS
BlueBird 7 fallout ongoing but mid-June Falcon 9 launch confirmed for satellites 8-10. Earnings Monday — most important call in the sector right now.

SpaceX IPO
S-1 expected late May. Every space stock is being repriced around it.

I track 33 space stocks and ETFs — RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL, BKSY, RDW, FLY, HAWK, OKLO, SPCE, KRMN, DXYZ and more, on a free live dashboard with broker targets, launch calendar and a weekly deep dive newsletter.

If you want the full deep dive, broker target changes and launch calendar in one place every Sunday, it’s free and takes 10 seconds to sign up. Link below.

Hi guys,

I am continuing to improve the website / dashboard, populating with live data every 60s across the stocks we know and love.

I’ve also published the second newsletter.

Both will continue to ramp up in quality as we progress.

Any insight let me know.

Orbit Alpha