u/John_Houbolt

Tough call because I know the Bulwark values, as do I, a broad scope of perspectives in a good faith effort to build a big tent anti-MAGA coalition. But there are a few accounts here and they appear to be increasing in number, that seem to be actively degrading the content and experience here which diminishes Bulwark’s mission. Something to consider.

Was just reading the Players Tribune piece posted in this sub. And this really stuck out to me:

>"Also … I’ve never been around so many tall people in my life. No, seriously, it’s like: How are these dudes so big? You know Aday Mara is 7’3”, right? Crazy. And this isn’t one of those 7’3” guys where all they can do is dunk. He’s making behind the back passes. No looks. I’m like: I didn’t know they actually made people like that. And then he’s a beast on the other end, too. Early on in practices, he’d be blocking my shot every time. I’m talking to my coaches like, “Um, maybe I suck? I can’t score on this guy.” I had to go back to the lab and figure out some new moves. And that’s how it is with pretty much all the guys on this team — they’re always doing things that make me want to work even harder just to stay at their level. We’re always pushing each other. And any given night, any of us can go off, which I think takes the pressure off of us as individuals. It makes everything so fun."

Cam Boozer like Steph and Klay grew up on the sidelines and in the locker rooms of their NBA fathers. He had the best possible training, coaching and competition his entire life. He was always playing against the best talent and had what Yaxel describes here for at least the last 5-6 years of his life if not longer. Yaxel played with competition that actually pushed him and had elite coaching for one season. Now he's going to have that every day. And I really think he still has a lot of growth in him. The guy played less than half of one season of high school and no AAU ball. The way he learned basketball was playing with his friends, and none of them could match him physically, so he was never pushed to work to be great against great players. That happened for the first time less than a year ago.

I don't bring up Boozer to suggest that Yax is a better prospect, he's not. Obviously. But the contrast in the two is important to point out when people write off Yax for being so much older than Boozer or any freshman.

I agree with the idea that the draft *IN MOST CASES* should be seen as a way to add players to your rotation for the coming season that can contribute immediately and grow into bigger roles as their skills and physical attributes mature.

This is why I am really high on Wagler. Because he can be a 6th-8th man in a rotation to come off the bench tomorrow and knock down open jumpers at a high rate. And in three years he might also be leading your offense.

As a Warrior fan I look at what the Warriors did with Kuminga in rolling the dice on someone they thought had star potential but knew was raw. Kerr wouldn't play him because the maturity of his skillset wasn't there. He had very little he could add in year one to get him on the floor. So they got very, very little out of a top 7 pick. Teams can not afford to do that.

It's also why I'm high on a guy like Yaxel, who is older but is ready now. And there is a high probability a team would only have him for 4-7 years at which point he would be no older than 30. So why would I care if he's 23 now?

I think a lot of front offices over think things trying to get the best probability at an all star or a team leader, when that is rarely what the draft yields for the team that drafts the player. And in the current CBA that will become less likely.

Looking at the past 7 years—choosing that number to try to capture players who are either on rookie deals or a rookie extension—only 17 of the 144 all stars represented the team that drafted them (only looking at last 6 years of all stars to not artificially pad the N with rookies who weren't all stars). And of those 17 only 5 were outside of the top 5 slots.

Player (Draft Position) Year drafted position drafted (i.e first pick, second pick, etc) year as an all star

Zion Williamson (#1) 2019 1 2021, 2023

Ja Morant (#2) 2019 2 2022, 2023

Darius Garland (#5) 2019 5 2022, 2025

Tyler Herro (#13) 2019 13 2025

Anthony Edwards (#1) 2020 1 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

LaMelo Ball (#3) 2020 3 2022

Tyrese Maxey (#21) 2020 21 2024, 2026

Cade Cunningham (#1) 2021 1 2025, 2026

Evan Mobley (#3) 2021 3 2025

Scottie Barnes (#4) 2021 4 2024, 2026

Jalen Duren (#13) 2021 13 2025

Alperen Sengun (#16) 2021 16 2025

Jalen Johnson (#20) 2021 20 2026

Paolo Banchero (#1) 2022 1 2024

Chet Holmgren (#2) 2022 2 2026

Jalen Williams (#12) 2022 12 2025

Victor Wembanyama (#1) 2023 1 2025, 2026

5 goals (could have easily been 6) in two World Cup matches days shy of 39. Lionel Messi turns 39 in two days. Will he be the best 39 year old athlete in history? Obviously Lebron and Brady are in the conversation. But he's better than KAJ was at the same age. Better than Jordan was in his Wizards days.

EDIT: Brainfart on Bonds. But I also thought of Clemens and there are probably others, Nolan Ryan? Who’s on the Mt Rushmore?

Player	Age	HT	WT	PPG	3PT%	3PA
Wagler	19	6'6"	185	17.9	39.7	5.9
Klay	19	6'6"	187	12.5	41.2	5
Klay	20	6'6"	202	19.6	36.4	6.7
Klay	21	6'6"	202	21.6	39.8	7.2

The knock against Wagler has been his slight frame and limited athleticism. He's also seen more as a PG because he has good distribution and creation skills. However I think his role in the early part of his career is going to be off ball as a jump shooter. That's where I see him looking a lot like Klay. And note that at the same age, they basically had the same body. Klay got huge in the NBA, and there's no reason that couldn't happen for Wagler. As he adds weight and improves handle, his game may expand to be a primary ball handler who is also an elite shooter with positional size.

On the defense side of the ball, he doesn't look like he will be locking down primary options on offense. But he is a smart defender with good positional size.

• 2022 (Qatar): Quarter-finals (eliminated by Morocco)
• 2018 (Russia): Round of 16 (eliminated by Uruguay)
• 2014 (Brazil): Group Stage
• 2010 (South Africa): Round of 16 (eliminated by Spain)
• 2006 (Germany): 4th Place (lost to Germany in the third-place play-off)
• 2002 (South Korea/Japan): Group Stage

Bill Simmons has been right about these things before. Not saying he is always right or even often right, and that isn't the point here. But it seems like he is a good dot connector who if he has a little inside info can be right at times. I think that was the case when he said Lebron would go to the Lakers at least a year before it happened. IIRC he also called Durant going to the Warriors. Saying he would "bet his life" that Lebron is going to go to the Warriors seems to me to be a way of him saying—I know this is going to happen because I have inside information.

He may end up being wrong in embarrassing fashion. But I thought I would just play around with the trade machine to see how this will work.

I have thought for a while now that if Lebron went to the Warriors it would only make sense on a vet min or at most a MLE of some variety. And over the past year things have only trended more that direction. If Lebron is going to the Warriors, here is why I think he would do it on a vet min or MLE

1. The guy is a billionaire. The money is of little real consequence other than to signal his value/dominance. But. he has so thoroughly established this over the past 23 years is there really much value to be gained from prioritizing money now? Sure his ego and agent might not agree, but the I think it makes sense that he would care more about making the most out of his final season(s) on the court and for his legacy.
2. A Lebron S/T would have to be for three years. I would be shocked if he or the Warriors would want to do that. Perhaps the Warriors would want to at a super low number—like Moses Moody money. And I suppose he could just retire at any point during that contract if he isn't up for playing until he's 45. But I don't think the Warriors would want to risk that and tie up the money that far in the future for him. Slight chance this could happen, but it seems less likely.
3. If Lebron is coming here, it's either because he just wants to have fun with Steph, or he want's his 6th 5th ring. I'll be the first to agree that there are other places he could go to give himself a better shot at a ring—hell, staying in LA would be more convenient and at least as likely as the best case scenario the Warriors could put together to make a deep playoff run. Because of all this, I think, if he chooses the Warriors he'd want to maximize the roster he's going to, letting the Warriors keep Jimmy and Draymond, the only players who could possibly make an S/T work.
4. The only other way the Warriors could acquire him without an extraordinarily unlikely S/T would be as a vet min or MLE.

Just following the logic here, I think there is a decent chance that Lebron would be acquired via MLE or vet min if he is intent on coming to the Warriors. So how serious is Simmons about betting his life? I just think that's his way of signaling inside info, and he's done it multiple times in the past and one of those times involved Lebron. Another involved the Warriors.

Lots of things going well right now in spite of the W-L which I think eventually improves.

On the Seattle/Portland sibling rivalry

I am converting a detached building on my property to an ADU. My permit is in review. The fire marshal is saying that my road needs to be 20 feet wide which it is, and must support 70,000 pound fire aparatus. Waste management services my house with a front loading truck which from the best I can tell can weigh as much as 80,000 fully loaded and 60,000 pounds with a lighter load. I don't see why they can't service my converted building—particularly when it shares a driveway with my house.

Has anyone had issues with the Fire Marshal? I converted an attached garage a few years ago and this issue didn't come up. Wondering if something has changed.

This season was basically the first time Yaxel has had elite coaching and played with a very talented cast of teammates. He played 11 games in HS and didn’t play AAU. So we are basically looking at a guy who, yes is old but has basically no experience before college and the majority of his college experience wasn’t at a top or even major program.

I understand that his physical maturity creates an advantage on most opponents. But isn’t there something to be said about his decision making, defensive IQ, court mapping and passing ability. all are pretty high level even compared against the best players at his position?

I guess what Iam wondering is, does the cognitive side of his game developing so well in just one year of elite training and coaching offset his physical maturity? His anthros are great but his sprint, vertical aren’t even particularly strong. My sense of it is that he’s being tagged as “old” just based on what the age correlation says when he shows a lot of evidence of being a freakish outlier when looking at his experience and training.

compare him to Boozer. Obviously Boozer is a better prospect but he should be. He grew up with every possible advantage as the son of an NBA all star. It just seems like I see a lot of “but his age” and virtually no comments about his incredibly accelerated learning curve.

What do you all think.