u/PTAGoatofalltime

• The Debut will thrive here. Absolute easy cakewalk WGA win and SAG Actress win.

• The Invite will do great here too. Its winning WGA Screenplay with La Bola Negra ineligible.

• None of the non-English films expect La Bola Negra are making PGA. Sorry to inform you.

• SAG loves Emily Blunt. She's getting in at least here if nowhere else.

Oscar Predictions mid-Venice and Telluride, pre-TIFF

 The Odyssey: Not much to add in since my last update. Amazing critical reviews, insane box office run, great audience reception. No reason to think this is not the frontrunner right now. I have it getting 4 acting nominations now, with Leguizamo being the weakest of them.   
Nominations I have it getting (17 in total) – Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress (x2), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound, Original Score, Original Song
Wins I have it getting (10) – Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Sound, Original Score

La Bola Negra: Netflix is clearly gearing up to give it a massive campaign, maybe the biggest one they have had till yet. Probably a more emotionally accessible film than The Odyssey, with (more) resonant themes to current real-world issues. Has the underdog narrative. Guitarricadelafuente is getting nominated; you'll understand when you see the film.  
Nominations I have it getting (13 in total) – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature, Casting, Production Design, Film Editing, Costume Design, Sound, Original Score, Original Song
Wins I have it getting (3) – Adapted Screenplay, International Feature, Original Song

Wild Horse Nine: Reviews out of Venice were great, but not amazing like The Banshees of Inisherin. Should be a pretty solid frontrunner in Screenplay and win-competitive in Lead Actor (his recent comments notwithstanding), though I think this might end up being weaker than initially thought, with a Director snub being in the cards and its BTL potential maxing out at Editing and Score.  
Nominations I have it getting (8 in total) – Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, Film Editing, Original Score 
Wins I have it getting (2) – Original Screenplay and Casting

The Debut: I was underestimating this, but even in the best case scenario for it I hadn't imagined that it would turn out like this. A 90 on MC, an insane rating curve on Letterboxd with the majority being 5 stars. Absolute career-best raves for Moore (who is the easy frontrunner in her category) and Giamatti (who is also, admittedly a bit weaker, a frontrunner in his category), with both having multiple, insane Oscar clips. Could end up being the competition for WH9 in Screenplay. Apparently also a contender in Director, which wasn't something I had even considered. BTL potential with Editing, Score and Song as well.   
Nominations I have it getting (9 in total) – Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song   
Wins I have it getting (2 in total) – Actress and Supporting Actor   

Dune Part Three: So, after much internal debate, I put this in my top 5. Part of that might be because I read Dune Messiah, and honestly it’s not *as*alienating and weird as some people have made it out to be. It’s got a good release date which will ensure that it stays in the minds of voters, it’s an iconic ending to a great franchise, and people are fucking *hyped* for it. I also have, against my better judgement, Villeneuve in, because I simply can’t find an alternative.
Nominations I have it getting (8 in total) – Picture, Director, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Visual Effects, Sound  
Wins I have it getting (1) – Visual Effects

The Invite: I know this is A24’s second priority, but it’s not gonna directly compete with the demographic that The Debut appeals to. People *adore* the film and it will do well in regional critics’ groups, especially in the acting and Screenplay categories. 
Nominations I have it getting (6 in total) – Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing   

All of a Sudden: Look, I know the drawbacks. A 3 hour long foreign language film it is, but you know what it also is? An emotionally accessible and devastating mediation on the healing power of art in the face of hopelessness. Tell me what’s more up the Academy’s alley than that.
Nominations I have it getting (5 in total) - Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature   

Project Hail Mary: This had buzz towards the start of the year, but The Odyssey kinda stole its thunder, and Dune Part Three will steal its thunder even more. Its release date doesn’t really help. This will have a nice little techs + Picture package and be happy with it.    
Nominations I have it getting (6 in total) – Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Sound, Visual Effects 

Obsession: With Elsinore turning out to be kinda mid, Focus can fully focus (heh) on this instead. It would have been stronger if Navarrette was gonna win in Lead Actress, but since that’s (probably) not happening anymore, it will be have to be in the 9 – 10 spot and be happy with it. Its insane box office run and memorability is just a plus on its record.
Nominations I have it getting (3 in total) – Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay   

Fjord: The reason I have it this low is *not* because of the discourse it will generate (which will, honestly, not be that much), but because it’s a cold, slow and alienating meditative film on difficult and complex topics and themes. I liked it, but a crowdpleaser it is not.
Nominations I have it getting (3 nominations) – Picture, Original Screenplay, International Feature

• Peter Lorre in M
• Erich von Stroheim for Grand Illusion
• Anna Magnani for Rome, Open City
• Takashi Shimura for Ikiru
• Setsuko Hara for Tokyo Story
• Toshiro Mifune for Seven Samurai
• Toshiro Mifune for Yojimbo
• Marcello Mastroianni for 8 1/2
• Ingrid Thulin for Winter Light
• Anne Vernon for The Umbrellas of Cherbourg
• Liv Ullmann for Scenes from a Marriage
• Ingrid Bergman for Autumn Sonata
• Irène Jacob for Three Colors: Red
• Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose
• Cho Yeo - jeong for Parasite
• Renate Reinsve for The Worst Person in the World
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value

• Mary Pickford for Coquette (1929)
• Marie Dressler for Min and Bill (1930/1931)
• Helen Hayes for The Sin of Madelon Claudet(1931/1932)
• Katharine Hepburn for Morning Glory(1932/1933)
• Bette Davis for Dangerous (1935)
• Joanne Woodward for The Three Faces of Eve (1957)
• Sophia Loren for Two Women (1961)
• Jodie Foster for The Accused (1989)
• Kathy Bates for Misery (1990)
• Jessica Lange for Blue Sky (1994)
• Charlize Theron for Monster (2003)
• Julianne Moore for Still Alice (2014)