

Early reg mb mega and mega pairing tier list
I pulled every completed M-B tournament off Limitless (91 events, 6,830 teams) and scored each mega off real results instead of opinion. It’s dominance/results led, so the score is built from event wins, top cut volume, and usage, with win rate kept as a strong second factor. The actual weights are win rate 0.75, top cut volume 0.55, event wins 0.40, plus a stepped usage bonus.
A few things baked in: wins and top cuts are weighted by event size, so winning a 200 player major counts far more than an 8 player side event. Win rate and top cut rate get lightly smoothed toward the field average so a 2 game fluke can’t spike a tier. Usage mostly acts as a penalty for fringe picks (anything under 10 teams gets dropped hard) since the data shows usage is super consistent but barely predicts skill on its own, which is why I didn’t let it carry much. And the tier cutoffs aren’t hand picked, they come from where the actual gaps fall in the score spread.
The pairing list uses the same model but for duos, since around half of teams flex two mega stones. A pairing only gets ranked if at least 5 teams ran it. I tested that with a split half check and reliability falls off a cliff below 5 (about 0.39 at 5 teams vs 0.26 at 2), so under that you’re just ranking coincidences.
For what it’s worth Floette comes out as the number 1 mega (1,248 teams, 55.4% win rate, tied for the most event wins) and Charizard Y + Floette is the top pairing (372 teams).
EDIT: here are the top performing teams https://github.com/logdog2325/Pokemon\_Trainer\_Tournament\_Simulator/blob/claude/samurott-vgc-team-woglbi/champions-team-building/top-teams-deduped.md