
The next China shock will come from open-source AI
"Open-weight models lower adoption costs, expand developer communities and allow companies to work around constraints imposed by a lack of access to the most advanced chips. They are especially attractive to emerging markets but are gaining popularity among developers worldwide because of their cost efficiency and adaptability to different workloads.
Xi’s ambition is to accelerate the global proliferation of Chinese technology, build a stronger strategic foothold abroad, diversify China’s exposure to geopolitical risk and shape the global system more in China’s favour."
China’s open-source strategy is turning constraint into global reach. Countries adopting those models absorb Chinese technical standards over time. The more durable answer for the US is not only export controls, but a deliberate effort to develop strong open-weight models that can compete on performance, cost, and adoption.