u/inspurious_

Canadian residents returned home from the US by air 27% less often between January to July 2026 than over the same months of 2024 (before Trump was re-elected).

This decline is specific to the US. Trips home from everywhere else are up 11% over the same comparison period. Interactive version

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It's a trend that's happening all across Canada, but some cities have hit this threshold much earlier than others. Source.

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Canada's baby boomers are mostly past retirement age. But they have not yet begun to cross the country's average life expectancy of about 82 years.* Source.

* This is life expectancy at birth. For someone who has already survived to age 70, life expectancy is 87.

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Breakdown of which regions are driving this increase (tldr: mix of US and European visitors)

Data from Statistics Canada. Chart source

First chart shows the year-over-year change in Canadians returning from the US by air. It's down significantly in 2025 and 2026 compared to 2024 (pre-Trump).

Second chart shows the year-over-year change in Canadians returning from everywhere else except the US. It's up in 2025 and 2026 compared to 2024.

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Source. In the aggregate, the car theft rate across Canada didn't change much between 2019 and 2024 (up 3%). But that hides a sharp split between East and West.

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Source, with data for other provinces.