Dubai’s wealthy expat appeal is being disturbed by regional conflict and missile risk, pushing some to leave. Italy and Singapore are emerging alternatives due to stability and tax/wealth regimes. But both have trade-offs, so many may still return to Dubai if/when this is over.
As we move further into 2026, the global immigration landscape continues to evolve at an unprecedented pace. Countries worldwide are reimagining their immigration policies to attract talent, capital, and expertise in an increasingly competitive global marketplace.
At Harvey Law Group, not only do we track immigration trends, we also forecast where they are heading. Based on the latest policy shifts, economic pressures, and geopolitical realignment, here are our five immigration predictions for what will define immigration opportunities in 2026 and why acting on them now could be critical.
PREDICTION 1: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WILL COMPETE AGGRESSIVELY FOR HNWI CAPITAL—THEN RESTRICT ACCESS WITHIN 24-36 MONTHS
After decades of skepticism, many developed nations are now reversing course and actively opening their doors to wealthy investors. The shift has created one of the most significant immigration windows for high-net-worth individuals in 2026. For investors who understand how immigration cycles work, they know that this period of openness is temporary and that such opportunities rarely remain available for long. Within the next 24–36 months, we expect to see tightening eligibility rules for passive investment immigration, heightened due-diligence requirements, and renewed political scrutiny as public sentiment shifts, making the present moment one of the most advantageous times to secure residency through investment.
Why This Prediction Matters: Understanding the Cycle
Immigration policy for wealthy investors follows a predictable pattern:
Phase 1 – Openness: Countries create generous programs to attract capital
Phase 2 – Success: Programs become popular, attracting significant investment
Phase 3 – Scrutiny: Media attention, political criticism, and security concerns emerge
Phase 4 – Restriction: Programs tighten requirements or close entirely
We have seen this pattern repeats across major economies. Canada closed its Federal Immigrant Investor Program in 2014 after concluding that investor immigrants contributed roughly $200,000 less in taxes over 20 years compared to skilled workers.
The United Kingdom terminated its Tier 1 Investor visa in February 2022 amid allegations that the program provided a channel for corrupt individuals to “push dirty money” into the country. Australia followed suit in July 2024, shutting down its Significant Investor Visa after determining it delivered poor economic outcomes.
These closures illustrate a consistent reality. Passive investor programs are often launched with enthusiasm, generate controversy as they scale, and ultimately face political pressure to shut down. The full cycle typically plays out over five to ten years, from generous offering in the beginning to eventual restriction or closure, making early entry the strategic advantage for investors who understand the pattern.
We are currently in Phases 1 and 2, depending on the investment immigration program of concern, yet moving rapidly toward Phase 3. Here is why we expect the cycle to repeat, and why 2026 is likely the last window of maximum accessibility before global tightening for investment immigration begins.
With the recent launch of the Trump Gold and Platinum Card program, the United States offers the clearest example of this new openness. This new program provides permanent residency to individuals who make a financial contribution of at least USD 1 million. This marks a significant departure from its historically restrictive approach to investment immigration.
For decades, the U.S. relied almost exclusively on the EB‑5 program, a pathway defined by at‑risk capital, mandatory job creation, and multi‑year processing delays. By introducing a streamlined option to investor through the Gold and Platinum Card program, the U.S. is signaling that it now intends to compete directly for global wealth, acknowledging that ultra‑high‑net‑worth individuals expect faster, simpler, and more predictable residency pathways. This shift is a clear example of Phase 1 openness with generous terms designed to attract capital before political scrutiny inevitably returns.
New Zealand’s Active Investor Plus Visa program reflects a different, but equally revealing, form of early‑phase openness. New Zealand offers a pathway to permanent residency for those willing to commit at least NZD 5 million into approved investments. The program’s structure of high investment thresholds paired with clear, predictable processing standard, signals that New Zealand is opening its doors to investors as part of the broader Phases 1–2 expansion cycle.
Moreover, Hong Kong has moved decisively into the openness phase by amending its immigration regulations to make the New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) program far more accessible. The updated framework allows applicants to count jointly owned family assets toward the net‑worth requirement, use wholly owned private companies for qualifying investments, and allocate a larger share of real estate investment in Hong Kong toward the HKD 30 million investment threshold. These changes position Hong Kong as one of the most welcoming major jurisdictions currently in Phases 1–2, reinforcing the city’s ambition to reclaim its status as Asia’s premier financial hub.
With these moves, we are predicting maximum accessibility in terms of immigration options for high-net-worth individuals in 2026 and 2027, with gradual tightening through 2028-2030. For those interested in these options, we suggest to take action and apply in 2026 while requirements remain accessible and processing is fast.
PREDICTION 2: TECH ENTREPRENEUR VISAS WILL CONSOLIDATE AROUND “WINNERS”
As artificial intelligence and frontier technologies accelerate, countries are no longer competing only for capital. They are competing for the people capable of building the next Google, Tesla, or Nvidia. Governments have watched immigrant founders create trillion‑dollar companies in the United States, and they are acutely aware that nearly half of America’s Fortune 500 firms were founded by immigrants or their children. That insight has reshaped global immigration strategy.
Nations now understand that attracting a single exceptional founder can generate substantial long‑term economic value. As a result, we are entering a new era of aggressive competition for tech entrepreneurs, with countries racing to design faster, more flexible, and more founder‑friendly pathways in hopes of capturing the next wave of transformative companies.
As more countries launch or refine their tech‑focused immigration programs, a predictable pattern will emerge. A handful of programs will become clear “winners” in 2026, attracting disproportionate demand and quickly becoming oversubscribed.
The Netherlands Startup Visa is a prime example of a program on the cusp of this shift. It has been quietly building momentum for years, with a growing number of founders securing funding, scaling internationally, and hiring Dutch talent. As these success stories multiply, facilitators will inevitably become more selective about whom they sponsor.
By Q3–Q4 2026, we expect facilitators to raise their standards, choosing to support only the most promising ventures as application volume increases. Founders who apply in Q1–Q2 2026 will benefit from today’s relatively straightforward process before the bar rises.
Canada’s planned new entrepreneur pilot program for 2026 represents another meaningful development in the global competition for founders. It will likely launch with reasonable requirements to attract early applicants and demonstrate early success.
But once word spreads, especially as U.S. founders seek alternatives to visa uncertainty, application volumes are likely to rise quickly, increasing processing times and creating the potential for backlogs. Those who apply early will benefit from lighter demand, faster adjudication, and clearer administrative pathways before the program matures and becomes more competitive.
Across all these programs, the pattern is unmistakable. They launch accessibly to build volume, early success stories generate buzz, applications surge, gatekeepers become selective, rejection rates rise, and requirements tighten. For tech entrepreneurs choosing between multiple programs, applying to two or more programs simultaneously is often a practical risk‑management strategy.
Innovation‑based programs rely heavily on subjective assessments of whether a founder meets an “innovation bar,” and those judgments can vary widely between incubators, immigration officers, and political cycles. Because of this discretionary power, even strong founders can face unpredictable outcomes. Submitting multiple applications is therefore a rational safeguard, as the additional cost involved is trivial compared to the opportunity cost of betting on a single program and missing the accessible phase.
If you are a tech entrepreneur considering immigration but not yet ready to begin the process, it is worth recognizing that these programs will likely remain available in the coming years, though the landscape will evolve. By 2028, you will likely be applying alongside candidates with stronger traction, the innovation threshold will rise, and competition will intensify as these pathways mature. We suggest taking a simple first step is to map out your preferred jurisdictions now, so when you are ready to apply, you can move quickly before standards rise and competition intensifies.
PREDICTION 3: HIGHER DEMAND FOR CITIZENSHIP BY ANCESTRY AS NATIONALITY LAW RELAXES
Aside from the above‑mentioned immigration trends, another quiet shift is unfolding in immigration law and, interestingly, this is driven not by capital, skills, or entrepreneurship, but by bloodlines. Around the world, governments are reopening or expanding citizenship by descent pathways, creating opportunities that would have been unimaginable a decade ago.
As more countries liberalize these rules in recent years, people are increasingly discovering that historical injustice or a forgotten lineage may unlock full citizenship rights in another country. Since citizenship by descent pathways are far more accessible, affordable, and politically uncontroversial compared to investor visas, we expect demand for citizenship by descent to surge in 2026 as awareness spreads and applicants rush to secure citizenship by descent before governments tighten the rules.
Canada’s recent reforms are among the most significant. For decades, outdated laws created “Lost Canadians”—people who should have been citizens but were excluded due to gender discrimination, marriage rules, or arbitrary provisions. New legislation corrected these injustices, restoring citizenship to thousands who were previously shut out. Beyond the individual impact, Canada’s reforms signal a broader willingness to revisit and expand citizenship eligibility, setting a precedent that other countries are now watching closely.
Slovakia’s amendment to its citizenship by ancestry law marks another major shift. The new provisions allow individuals with a Czechoslovak parent, grandparent, or even great‑grandparent born in the modern‑day territory of Slovakia to reclaim citizenship, regardless of whether the ancestor later lost or renounced the citizenship. This makes Slovakia one of the most accessible European Union (EU) ancestry pathways available today. For the Slovak diaspora around the world, this change is transformative, as it opens up a new gateway to full EU mobility rights.
Austria’s citizenship pathway for descendants of persecuted persons is another example of this global shift. Designed to acknowledge a dark chapter of Austrian history, the program grants EU citizenship to descendants of those who fled persecution under the Nazi regime. What makes this remarkable is that Austria, which is traditionally one of Europe’s most restrictive citizenship jurisdictions, created a generous, streamlined carve‑out specifically for this group. It demonstrates how moral responsibility and modern immigration policy can intersect to create meaningful new opportunities for individuals.
Together, these developments signal a broader global trend. Countries are increasingly willing to revisit, expand, and modernize citizenship‑by‑descent rules, unlocking opportunities for people who once assumed they had no claim to another nationality. As these pathways open and awareness spreads, we expect that the demand for citizenship by ancestry is set to accelerate sharply.
That momentum will be intensified by a second, equally powerful force, which is the growing recognition that these windows can close just as quickly as they open.
Italy’s abrupt decision to restrict its famously generous citizenship by descent programin March 2025 to only two generations sent shockwaves through the global diaspora, reminding applicants that even long‑standing ancestry pathways are vulnerable to political pressure, administrative strain, and shifting national priorities. As more people witness how quickly eligibility can disappear, we anticipate a far more decisive rush to secure citizenship through bloodline in 2026 while the rules remain favorable.
PREDICTION 4: INCREASED POPULARITY FOR RETIREMENT VISA PROGRAMS
For many retirees in North America and Europe, the math of retirement no longer works the way it once did. Higher costs and pension uncertainty are prompting a growing number to explore life abroad, and in 2026 we expect retirement visa programs in affordable, high‑quality countries to see a sharp rise in applications, transforming what were once niche pathways into mainstream retirement strategies.
Panama’s Pensionado program illustrates this perfectly. Long considered one of the world’s most attractive retirement pathways, it grants immediate permanent residency to applicants who can demonstrate a clean criminal record and a stable lifetime pension of at least USD 1,000 per month.
The program also offers an unusually generous package of benefits, including substantial discounts on healthcare, transportation, and entertainment, making everyday life significantly more affordable for retirees. Combined with Panama’s significantly lower cost of living compared to the United States, Canada, or Western Europe, the program provides a realistic opportunity for retirees to stretch their pensions without sacrificing comfort, safety, or quality of life.
Costa Rica is experiencing a similar rise in interest through its Pensioner Residency Permit program. Known for its political stability, universal healthcare system, and “Pura Vida” lifestyle, Costa Rica has become a magnet for retirees seeking a slower pace of life. The Pensioner Resident Permit program requires proof of a stable monthly pension income of USD 1,000 and grants a renewable two‑year residency with processing times as fast as three months, making it one of the most straightforward pathways to residency in the region. As global healthcare costs continue to climb, Costa Rica’s affordable medical system, combined with its reputation for safety and environmental sustainability, we expect Costa Rica will attract more retirees in 2026 and beyond.
We predict that application volumes to both programs will surge dramatically in 2026 for several converging reasons. First, the cohort of Baby Boomers reaching retirement age has never been larger, creating unprecedented demand. Second, inflation has made traditional retirement destinations increasingly unaffordable, what worked five years ago simply does not pencil out anymore.
Third, social proof is reaching critical mass. As more retirees successfully relocate and share their experiences, the perception shifts from “risky alternative” to “smart strategy.”
Looking ahead, we expect the next three to five years to bring not only increased demand for existing retirement visa programs but also the launch of new retirement pathways from countries eager to attract this growing demographic. Retirees represent stable, low‑maintenance residents who spend locally without competing for jobs, an ideal immigrant class from a policy perspective. Countries across Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Southern Europe are watching the success of Panama and Costa Rica and preparing their own offerings.
While we do not predict imminent changes to existing retirement visa programs, the growing popularity of destinations such as Panama and Costa Rica means earlier applicants benefit from less crowded infrastructure, lower local cost of living, and established expat communities that are not yet oversaturated. Acting in 2026 can position retirees ahead of the demographic wave we expect to build through 2027 and 2028.
PREDICTION 5: GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR IMMIGRATION TO CRYPTO-FRIENDLY JURISDICTIONS
As governments worldwide intensify cryptocurrency taxation and reporting requirements, we expect investment-based immigration application volumes to crypto-friendly jurisdictions to surge dramatically in 2026, with digital asset holders increasingly prioritizing jurisdictions that offer regulatory clarity and favorable tax treatment.
Surveys have showed that the population of high‑net‑worth individuals holding substantial crypto positions has expanded rapidly over the past two years, with a growing cohort now reaching millionaire and even billionaire status as digital assets become a mainstream component of global wealth portfolios.
As this new crypto‑wealth class begins evaluating jurisdictions that offer regulatory clarity and genuine acceptance of digital assets, a few immigration programs are starting to gain attention. Nauru’s Citizenship by Investment program, officially known as the Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship program, has emerged, offering citizenship starting at just $90,000 under a limited-time promotion.
What makes Nauru particularly attractive is not just the investment price point, it is the explicit acceptance of cryptocurrency as source of funds, provided proper documentation is supplied. In 2025, Nauru became the first Pacific nation to establish a comprehensive digital asset regulatory authority, positioning itself as a regulated hub for crypto exchanges. The program offers fast processing in just 3-4 months and imposes no residency requirements. We predict this program will see significant application growth as awareness spreads within crypto communities throughout 2026.
Meanwhile, we expect Portugal’s Golden Visa program to continue attracting sophisticated crypto investors, but through a different value proposition: a stable regulatory environment combined with favorable tax treatment for digital assets.
Portugal remains one of the few countries where real estate can be purchased using cryptocurrency, and capital gains on crypto held for more than 365 days are tax‑free. Investors can also use crypto‑derived wealth to qualify for the Golden Visa through EUR 500,000 investments in approved investment funds. This blend of tax efficiency, lifestyle appeal, and regulatory predictability makes Portugal especially attractive to digital‑asset holders seeking long‑term security and legitimacy for their wealth.
Aside from Nauru and Portugal, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also positioned itself at the apex of crypto-friendly immigration, ranking among the world’s top five crypto friendly jurisdictions.
The country maintains a zero personal income tax and zero capital gains tax regime on personal crypto holdings, offering a level of fiscal predictability that stands in stark contrast to the tightening regulatory climate in many Western economies.
For those seeking long‑term residency in the UAE, the UAE Residence Visa program provides a straightforward pathway. Crypto‑affluent investors can qualify for a 10‑year renewable visa by purchasing property worth at least AED 2 million (approximately USD 550,000) in an approved real‑estate project. With this highly attractive long term residency pathway and a tax friendly environment for digital assets holders, the UAE has become a preferred destination for investors seeking both lifestyle advantages and regulatory stability concerning their digital assets.
These developments indicate that jurisdictions offering regulatory clarity, reasonable tax treatment, and accessible immigration pathways for digital‑asset holders are capturing the world’s fastest‑growing wealth demographic and we expect the trend toward crypto-friendly immigration to accelerate significantly throughout 2026 and beyond.
The applications is actually going back beyond grandparents, the key is proving an unbroken documentary chain connecting each generation to the Canadian ancestor. The further back it goes, the harder it gets in practice, as it can get difficult to locate the documents needed to prove the Canadian citizenship of the ancestor.
I would really recommend looking into professional help if you are dealing with a complex multi-generational case, as it makes a big difference having someone who knows exactly what IRCC wants to see.
As for non-certified records, from what I understand, IRCC does not typically need certified records.
Hope this helps, and good luck to us all!