u/norcalnatv

Wonder how Kagan's take goes over with Cohen and Edelman. A tl:dr summary (but the article is recommended):

• The article argues that the U.S. and Israel have already lost the war with Iran in strategic terms, even if fighting continues and Trump insists he is winning.
• Iran has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into a contested or partially closed waterway, driving up global energy prices and demonstrating it can disrupt the world economy at relatively low cost.
• Trump’s strategy has been a series of coercive escalations—airstrikes, a “shock and awe” campaign, and then a blockade—without a credible exit plan or achievable political objectives, which leaves Washington stuck with bad options.
• Tehran’s leadership believes it can outlast U.S. political will and exploit Trump’s domestic vulnerabilities, betting that Americans and allies will tire of higher prices and ongoing risk more quickly than Iranians will endure economic pain.
• Any endgame now likely involves the U.S. accepting negotiations largely on Iranian terms (including de facto control over the Strait and sanctions relief), meaning Washington will have to dress up a defeat as a “deal” or hollow victory.

Gift link: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/?gift=feB0wTot4ZpR3y6s84C1wRjk2Gam51CaATg7BITdeqE&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share