u/swarrenlawrence

However immodestly, I would like to trumpet that I have just received notification of another award for CLOUD DRAGON, published in 2025. The Storytrade Award is for books set in the northeastern United States, rewarding "craft, excellence and innovation." Here is the jacket blurb:

"Climate fiction Without the End of the World

"Electrical engineering professor Jake Harper maintains his laser focus on the repair and re-engineering of the North American electric grids.

"Abbey London is the junior partner in an infectious disease practice with principal interest and expertise in novel vector-borne disorders.

"Together they operate Dragonfly Inn in nearby Virginia and care for their infant daughter with support from an au pair.

"Jake identifies evidence of a looming kinetic attack against the grid from photographs taken by his students, while Abbey discovers yet again an infection never before encountered in this hemisphere." 

All three books in my Trilogy of Dragons may be ordered from the website—swlawrence.com—online from almost anywhere, or perhaps best of all—independent bookstores. I will shortly be announcing launch events for FOSSIL DRAGON in several states, after starting with a delightful remote event in the Philippines just yesterday as a matter of fact. I'm still scratching my head on that one.

ClimateCentral: "Warming U.S. Cities Face Higher Cooling Demand and Energy Bills."

"This Climate Matters analysis is based on open-access data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA)." 

Demand for cooling is rising across the U.S., contributing to higher energy bills as households rely more on air conditioning in our warming climate—instead of the superior option of heat pumps for combination heating + cooling throughout the yr. "Cooling degree days—a temperature-based metric used to estimate the demand for energy to cool buildings—have increased since 1970 in 97% of the 241 major U.S. cities analyzed," with Austin, Texas just chosen as the poster child. 

"Based on long-term trends in cooling degree days, these cities have seen a 37% increase in cooling demand, on average, since the early 1970s," essentially the last half century. Logically, "households tend to spend more on cooling in warmer U.S. states that have higher annual cooling degree days." In the 10 states with the highest average cooling costs, households spent between $378 (in Hawaii) and $712 (in Arizona) on cooling in 2020, a metric which shows that finding updated figures—even, or perhaps especially, from governments—can be more difficult than pulling teeth.

As you can imagine, those most at risk are the poor, more equaterward located + extremes of age.

Guardian: "Fossils show huge carbon emissions harm forests, not ‘green the planet," by Oliver Milman.

Study of 56m-year-old leaves counters claims from Trump administration members of ‘benefits’ of fossil fuel pollution. 

'An analysis of fossilized leaf cells from a period known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which occurred about 56m years ago, helped reconstruct how the world’s forests responded when planet-heating gases were last previously released rapidly.' The current galloping pace of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is unmatched in historic + prehistoric records except for the PETM, when huge amounts of carbon were emitted over 130,000-yr period. The world heated up by as much as 8ºC = 14ºF.

"Authors of new paper found this prehistoric change caused a retreat in forests that blanketed the Paleocene-Eocene world, causing die off as the Earth browned rather than greened, a finding [with] “chilling implications."

“What we see is that as CO2 ramped up, forests became very dense, then subsequently collapsed, opening up dramatically,” said Regan Dunn, a researcher at La Brea Tar Pits + the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County." “Around 60% of the biomass of the standing vegetation was gone; it was a huge loss." This is a concern because the rate of carbon release has never been higher than the present. 

"Once the world started to burn coal, oil + gas in huge volumes from the industrial revolution onwards, the amount of emitted carbon dioxide surged at an unprecedented rate, with atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rising by > 50% in little over a century." Idiotically, prominent figures in Trump’s administration argue that burning fossil fuels benefits the environment.

“CO2 was never a pollutant,” Doug Burgum, the interior secretary, told Fox Business earlier this year. Same TV network last year, Last yr on the same TV network, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, said that there were “pluses” to global heating as well as negatives.

In hindsight, all I can see is the north ends of two horses galloping south.

CanaryMedia: "In this Brooklyn warehouse, stoves are turned into batteries," by Maria Gallucci.

"Startup Electra is outfitting induction stoves with slender batteries that enable the electric appliances to be plugged into a standard outlet—and [support] the grid." Unlike many induction stoves on the market, Electra’s model can plug into a standard 120-volt outlet and draw power to charge a 5-kWh battery. "Induction cooktop heats pans directly using electromagnetism, while the oven cooks food using [conventional] electric-resistance elements."

Customers can choose to use their batteries for ancillary grid storage. "With its software partners, Electra directs the batteries to charge up during the most beneficial times—for example, when solar power production is most abundant—and to discharge power during the grid’s peak demand periods."

'Induction cooks faster and more efficiently than old-school gas + electric appliances, and, unlike gas stoves, it doesn’t release pollutants that can harm people’s health.' Although federal rebates for electrification expired abruptly under the Trump administration, some states + utilities still offer incentives to help defray the upfront cost of going electric.

'Electra’s induction stove costs $3,999, more than triple the price of Wirecutter’s highest-rated electric range—although because that model uses 240 volts, this might require upgrading a home’s electrical panel, rewiring the kitchen, or hiring electricians to hook it up.' Electra says its unit avoids those added costs and, thanks to its battery, can even operate for several meals in a blackout. "Early data show that people who cook frequently are still using only about a fifth of the battery’s power per day, which bodes well for the lithium iron phosphate [LFP] device’s longevity."

"The company is also developing a pilot program with the city of Burbank, California, to help residents electrify their kitchens." And it’s partnering with a property owner closer to home, in the Bronx, to equip an 80-unit apartment building with its stoves. 

It's a startup + early mover, which tend to have hiccups. I love the concept, + I like the startup. Time will tell.

ClimateForwardNewsletter: "Birds are dying. Clues point to El Niño," by Catrin Einhorn.

"Every month, Giovanny Suárez Espín walks a beach near his home in southern Ecuador, monitoring for dead seabirds." On recent surveys, the sand has been littered with carcasses. "It’s too soon to say for certain what has caused the spike in deaths, which has affected various species, including sooty shearwaters, Peruvian and blue-footed boobies, cormorants, petrels + the critically endangered waved albatross. Die-offs in sea birds aren’t uncommon, but these are unusually emaciated. 

During an El Niño in the Pacific, the normal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters weakens. Fewer nutrients near the surface lead to less phytoplankton, which leads to fewer small fish like sardines and anchovies, and so on up the food chain. “Larger fish have the opportunity to feed deeper if there are deeper resources available or to move out of the region, but the seabirds don’t have that luxury.

"Historically, seabird populations were much more robust than they have been in recent decades, which gave them better resilience during natural El Niño cycles." But between 1950 and 2010 alone, monitored seabird populations decreased by 70%. ”Coastal development is taking over habitats." Introduced predators like snakes and rats are decimating seabird eggs. "Fishing hooks [+ plastic] are choking them." Nets are drowning them.

"Then there is the bird-killing ocean heat, which isn’t always tied to El Niño but is intensified by climate change." About half of Alaska’s common murres, some four million birds, died as a result of a marine heat wave from 2015-16. In March and April, a marine heat wave in California may have been behind a brief increase in reports of dead birds, including brown pelicans, loons and grebes, said Krysta Rogers, environmental scientist focusing on avian investigations in California. 

Since we are speaking of birds, recall the analogy of the canary in the coal mine. To extend this back further, link that coal burning to the devolving climate to the loss of seabirds. The connections are clear.

AAAS: "Halted dam releases threaten Colorado river ecosystems."

"Last week, Lake Mead reached its lowest water level on record, and is now at only 27% of its [design] capacity." It was last full in 1983 + has declined almost continuously over this century, with most of the water going to growing cities + thirsty crops in Arizona, California, and Nevada. "If levels continue to fall, it could jeopardize production of hydropower from the dams, which generate enough electricity for 1.6 million homes."

In 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) opened outlets at the base of the Colorado River’s mighty Glen Canyon Dam, unleashing gushers of water in an experiment meant to cool waters downstream. The strategy, called a “cool mix” release, aimed to thwart breeding of invasive smallmouth bass and protect native species. “It was very effective,” says Kevin Bestgen, a fish biologist at Colorado State University, so much so that the release was repeated in 2025. 

"But with the Colorado’s reservoirs at historically low levels, there may be little political will to release water to protect ecosystems." In August, USBR, which operates dams on the river, canceled this year’s cool mix release. In April, the agency also nixed one of the periodic “controlled floods,” a much larger cascade intended to redistribute sediment and build sandbars that provide habitat for fish.

"This year saw record low snowpack levels in the Rocky Mountains, which means less water flowing downstream into the two largest reservoirs in North America: Lake Powell behind the Glen Canyon Dam and, [downriver], Lake Mead behind the Hoover Dam." The new management plan gives USBR the right to cut back significantly how much water is released from the reservoirs. "Alongside reliable water delivery, a long-standing USBR priority has been hydropower."

Most people can see the fingerprints of climate change all over this scenario. We are in an era of protracted drought for the southwestern US. This is not manageable unless we fix the climate system.

YaleNews: "Removing ‘forever chemicals’ from farmlands—at a fraction of the cost."

A Yale-led research team has proposed a less expensive—and more environmentally friendly method—for removing certain “forever chemicals” from millions of acres of farmland in the US + around the world.

"The new process, which is based on data from agricultural sites in Maine, has the potential to address two connected environmental challenges: remediating per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) that have contaminated agricultural land for decades and scaling up the use of enhanced weathering to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere." 

PFAS are a class of toxic, man-made chemicals that have been used for decades in hundreds of products, from dental floss [yuck] + lipstick [yuck again] to frying pans + pizza boxes [another reason home-made pizza is better]. PFAS are ubiquitous in the United States, having made their way into groundwater and soil, and then eventually croplands.

Just as important, the new approach allows previously contaminated cropland to once again be used for an agricultural purpose—unlike current remediation methods. Noah Planavsky, a professor of Earth and planetary science in Yale’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and the son and brother of farmers, is also a faculty member of the Yale Center for Natural Carbon Capture and principal investigator for a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences which describes the new method.

“Though this study is U.S.-focused, based on the available data, PFAS are a challenge globally,” said Jake Thompson, an associate researcher in the Planavsky Lab and first author of the study. 

"There has been a lot of work on enhanced weathering (EW), a promising natural solution for durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that builds on the longstanding practice of applying crushed rock (such as limestone [also serpentinite]) to agricultural lands to mitigate soil acidification."

EW uses the same method to accelerate the Earth’s natural geologic carbon cycle by spreading finely ground alkaline material (e.g. silicate rock such as basalt [+ serpentinite]) over agricultural fields.

Two birds with two stones, as it were.

EIA: "Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years."

'Utility-scale battery storage capacity in US pole-vaulted over the Moon in last 3 years, with annualized average growth rate of 70%.'

"By end of 2025, U.S. had operational battery storage capacity of 43.6 gigawatts (GW)." During the first 6 months of 2026, operators added another 8.3 GW, based on EIA's latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.

"Operators anticipate bringing an additional 54 GW of battery storage capacity online over the next two and half years. Projections are for an additional 26 GW in 2027 + 14 GW in 2028, but I suspect this queue will expand, perhaps dramatically. 

Recall also that this does not include all the distributed batteries in companies + homes, of which more + more will be made available for balancing the grid. I myself have been waiting impatiently in line for my own EV battery to get connected.

Solar plants host the largest battery storage capacity units. "The Bellefield Solar and Energy Storage Farm, which began operations in December 2025, couples 500 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic capacity with 500 MW of nameplate power storage for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)." 

Plans for the Bellefield facility call for a doubling of the PV + storage capacity of the facility and for the new capacity to be operational by November this year. "If those plans materialize, the facility will become the largest power storage facility in the United States."

Detractors will jump on this sort of post with the argument that batteries don't actually 'generate' electricity. To forestall this argument, let me just say that I am happy to state that batteries 'usefully release' electricity. Hope this calms them down, as I am always aiming for civility.

Grist: "This Texas coal mine will soon be home to a 1.2GW solar farm."

"The project will use some of the land + assets from the adjacent Twin Oaks coal-fired power plant + Calvert surface coal mine, both of which will continue operating." The clean energy project will be among the largest in the nation—and biggest solar array ever built at a brownfield site in North America.

"The giant installation will further boost Texas’ thriving solar sector, which this year is expected to generate more electricity than coal in the Lone Star State." The renewable resource is helping meet the state’s energy demand from the triple demands of data centers, manufacturing facilities, + rising air-conditioning.

"Work has started on the first phase of the solar farm, a 491-MW section that is set to go online in August 2028." The remaining 658 MW could start producing power in August 2029.

'The 10,000-acre Big Rooter site will also include 1.6 GW-hours of battery storage, an upgraded electrical substation + 20 miles new extra-high-voltage transmission lines.' 

Much less beneficially, the investment firm says it also has the infrastructure + fossil gas access needed to build at least 800 MW of gas-fired generation, either for the grid or for customers like data center developers. 

Seems to me a sad story of 1-step forward, 1-step backward, in terms of reaching the critically need transition to an electrostate. Not to mention the smoke emissions of coal + fossil gas will require nearly constant washing of the solar panels.

SkepticalScience: "New Mexico’s clean energy success story."

"July is the most electricity-intensive time of yr in U.S., + the grid [works] hard to keep up." 

Many places, high electricity demand equals high pollution, which used to be true in New Mexico, but the state’s electricity supply flipped from majority climate-warming fossil fuels to majority renewables in just 5 yrs. Think on that, just 5 yrs. "Spurred by an ambitious clean energy law called Energy Transition Act, utilities [got] busy building solar arrays, wind turbines, batteries, + transmission." A major coal plant was retired + decommissioned. "Solar panels proliferated on homes, schools, businesses."

"Even while New Mexico was building out its clean energy future, electricity prices remained cheaper than average." New Mexico’s largest utility is Public Service Company of New Mexico, or PNM. "Only 5 yrs ago, most of PNM’s cooling needs were met by coal + gas, which made up 83% of its electricity generation in July of 2021."

Now abundant sunshine provides much of the region’s electricity. The 'golden' line on the graph shows [only] grid-scale solar every day for wk of July 6th, when solar flux generated 41% of the power.

Second, the 'green' line shows electricity stored + released by utility-scale batteries. During daytime, the line dips below zero when the batteries are pulling electricity off the grid to charge up. In the hot summer evenings, the green lines spike upward, as PNM’s battery fleet comes to life, delivering the solar energy stored just a few hours earlier. 

The next big player is wind, the 'blue' line on the graph, when the wind blows strongest in the evening—it’s the perfect complement to solar in this region. Thus, wind accounted for 20% of electricity generation during the week shown.

Fourth, the 'brown' line on the graph shows electricity generated from fossil gas. 

Finally, the nearly flat 'black' line exemplifies how coal works best at a constant pace. 

Take a deep breath, close your eyes for a moment, + imagine if every state + territory could accomplish such an abrupt transition simultaneously. It never hurts to dream. Except then you have to do the work.

DW: "Why is Germany building roads for yesterday's climate?"

"As the Autobahn buckles under heat waves, Germany is still paving roads for a past climate." Engineers know how to fix that—so what's the holdup? 

"Multi-day European heat waves with temperatures topping 40ºC (104ºF)  are increasingly leaving a mark on Germany's famed Autobahn—buckling concrete slabs, deforming asphalt + forcing temporary speed limits." In early July alone, seven stretches of the country's highways had to be shut down completely for a time."

"The cause often lies in the bitumen—the petroleum-derived binder in asphalt. It's elastic and can soften at high temperatures, from around 60ºC [140ºF]," said Autobahn GmbH." Bitumen is a component in most of the country's roads. When outdoor temperatures climb above 30ºC, the surface of dark asphalt can quickly heat to double that or more in the sun and then deform. 

Using modern, bitumen-free asphalt mixes lowers the risk of such damage. "The composition of the road surface is based on experience from the last 30 or 50 years," not on the increasingly noticeable shifts in the climate. "A 2019 study...found that dark asphalt heated up by 7ºC less when light-colored quartzite was mixed in." 

Germany isn't alone in facing increasingly hot roads. "Tokyo, for example, already uses reflective, water-retaining road surfaces as standard when resurfacing streets". These can lower the surface temperature by 8 to 10ºC. "By 2030, some 245 kilometers (152 miles) of roads in the Japanese capital are to be fitted with them." 

In Phoenix, light-colored coatings have also already been applied to numerous streets. They reflect more sunlight, so absorb less heat, but at the same time, this noticeably warms the surrounding air for passersby. 

"Even as average temperatures keep rising, the challenge remains that the road surface also has to stay stable in freezing winter conditions." As an alternative to bitumen, high-performance binders that can survive both extremes—frost and heat—are currently being developed. Otherwise this begs a comparison to generals who plan to fight the last war.

AAAS: "These moths smell with their wings."

"Like most insects, the wings of tobacco hawk moths (Manduca sexta) are covered in tiny hairs." These microscopic strands help insects taste and stay stable in flight. 

"But the tobacco hawk moth’s wing hairs do something researchers haven’t documented in any other insect: they help the animal smell, researchers report this week in the Journal of Experimental Biology." When the scientists looked at the tiny wing hairs with both light and scanning electron microscopy, they found the hairs were porous: a telltale sign of olfactory function. 

"Using a technique aptly named 'electrowingography,' the team placed the delicate detached wings between two electrodes and wafted odor molecules representing various chemical classes over them, hoping for a response." Two amines—a group of smelly organic compounds derived from ammonia, called pyrrolidine + piperidine—hit the mark. 

"Further testing with artificial intelligence predicted these molecules would fit perfectly into two of the receptors present on the hairs, suggesting that the hairs are fine-tuned to pick up on these particular scents." The two amines are found in pungent, rotting smells, but also in the olfactory bouquet of tobacco plants, the insects’ preferred location for laying eggs. 

"As such, their wings may work as accessory noses, helping guide them to these favorite spots." And get a load of that extension, these moths can also brag about their proboscis, longer than the rest of the insect's body.

OilPricedotcom: "Tidal Energy Could Cover 57% of US Electricity Demand, NREL Study Finds."

While the National Renewable Energy Lab is a reliable source of data, it is a bit ironic that this article appears on OilPrice.com, basically a bastion of support for all things fossil fuel. "NREL estimates US marine energy sources could generate 2,300 terawatt-hours a year, or 57% of the country's 2019 electricity output, yet the US has zero commercial tidal plants running today."

An Alaska-based startup is piloting a small, modular tidal turbine in Cape Cod's fast-moving currents to test its durability. "Similar pilots are underway in the Great Lakes and off the California coast, as US works to close the gap with Europe's lead in tidal and wave energy investment." Tapping into the country’s tidal energy potential could be a major game changer for homegrown energy security in America.

"While the US + Canada boast the highest surveyed levels of wave energy potential, the technology could provide a significant amount of the world’s energy needs if fully exploited." A new report from Ocean Energy Europe concluded that ocean energy has the potential to supply 21% of the European Union’s current energy consumption + a whopping 13% of global electricity demand. 

"This could be a complete game-changer for Europe as the continent struggles to establish energy independence and wean itself off of fossil fuel imports against the backdrop of seemingly endless energy crises." Europe is currently leading in terms of spending on tidal energy research and development, but the United States is quickly catching up thanks to ‘substantial’ funding programs from the Department of Energy. I would add that the USDOE is also lending full support for geothermal energy, in spite of crippling hostility to wind + solar. 

So let us hope that in graphs of electric generation sectors will begin to blossom with tidal + geothermal categories. Incidentally, the graphic for this post is only 1 of many types of design.

EIA: "Hourly peak load in ERCOT set a new record, exceeding 91 GW on July 22."

"Hourly peak load in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the regional transmission organization serving most of Texas, reached a record 91.1 gigawatts (GW) on July 22, 2026, according to data reported to us for [the] Hourly Electric Grid Monitor." The July 22 peak was 6% greater than the previous peak of 85.5 GW, set on August 10, 2023 according to ERCOT. Peak occurred at 6:00 p.m. CT and was primarily met with generation from natural gas (48%) and solar (32%) resources according to data reported to EIA." 

Peak occurred during a heat wave and could be surpassed again this summer, especially if Texas experiences another heat wave. "Electricity demand and generation in ERCOT have been increasing in Texas." But note how the solar buildout contributed to stability, not even mentioning wind power.

Abutting the Texas border, "more recently, electricity demand in the Southwest Power Pool reached a record 57.9 GW on July 27 at 5:00 p.m. CT." The SPP, unlike ERCOT, serves multiple states. The SPP region lies in the central southern U.S., serving all of the states of Kansas and Oklahoma, and portions of New Mexico, Texas [the part not served by ERCOT], Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, and Nebraska. 

FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is concerned that the SPP may be the U.S. entity most likely to fall short in providing enough generation assets as electricity prices climb.

In regions with increasing electricity demand and generation, periods of high demand, such as heat waves, are likely to continue to set records. You can bet your bottom dollar on it. But, when you flip that coin, don't let it fall on asphalt, as it may stick.

CanaryMedia: "California was mostly solar-powered in May—a global first." 

"While the Trump administration is busy pointing out that the sun doesn’t shine at night, solar is breaking records around the world, including in sunny California." Solar panels produced 51% of California’s electricity in May, the first time the clean energy source surpassed the halfway mark for an entire month. Amazingly, for once the data included both utility-scale + rooftop distributed solar installations on residences + commercial + industrial locations. 

"This isn’t just a milestone moment for California; it’s a milestone for the entire world." Think tank Ember says the state is the globe’s first major economy to cross the 50% threshold. (Hungary, at 47% in June 2025, is knocking at the door, though it has a far smaller GDP.) 

"Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that California power plants burn at appreciable levels, and solar is steadily squeezing it out of the system," as it must. "Case in point: Solar outproduced gas not only during its record month of May but throughout every month in 2026 leading up to it, too." 

Solar could not have reached these heights alone. "It needed batteries to get here—and California has that crucial energy storage in spades." The California Independent System Operator [CAISO], which manages most of the state’s grid, now boasts 16 gigawatts [GW] of batteries that can shift abundant midday solar production to later in the evening. "It’s not uncommon for batteries to meet over one-quarter of the state’s electricity demand for a portion of the night." 

Dan McCarthy, the author of the article, calculated that storage had grown by—26,129% over the last decade, 'a number so cartoonishly large' that he was almost hesitant to print it. The energy revolution, the progress toward an 'electrostate' is happening in real time, racing to solve our climate dilemma while we still have time.

OpenLibraryBioscience: "Airway immune signatures of protection and disease progression in recent human tuberculosis household contacts."

Fortunately, most individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis do not progress to active tuberculosis (TB). "Branchett et al. used single-cell sequencing approaches to profile immune cells in the lungs of individuals who were recent household contacts for patients with TB."

They 'interrogated' the airway immune response at single-cell resolution in bronchoalveolar lavage [fluid from lung endoscopy] with positron emission + computed tomography-characterized recent TB household contacts, who either controlled the infection or progressed to symptomatic disease, as well as of patients with active TB at diagnosis.

They found an inverse relationship between airway neutrophils vs. T-cells, which are lymphocytes involved in the immune response to infection. [Additionally, single-cell sequencing revealed interferon-dependent + interferon-independent 'signatures' in the neutrophils or 'pus cells.']

T cells showing signatures of exhaustion, cytotoxicity and cell death were found in progressors + patients with active TB, thus with a neutrophil-dominated airway profile. Conversely, they identified T cell signatures of protection in nonprogressor contacts dominated by genes related to regulation, quiescence and a stem-cell-like profile. 

"Our findings from early human airway responses in TB contacts reveal genes, pathways and cell states that may dictate infection outcome and inform strategies for developing effective host-directed therapies and vaccines."

Personally, I was never a progressor, never had active disease, but did develop a positive TB skin test during the early 1980s when I was taking care of a number of TB-infected patients. After some months of isoniazid [INH] therapy, my lifetime risk of TB is basically zero + I will never be infectious for others, at least as long as I avoid immunosuppression.

PaulKrugmanSubstack: "The Putinization of the American Military."

Trump’s Iran debacle is by no means the first war the United States has lost in modern times. 

"In Vietnam and in Afghanistan, America was similarly defeated by enemies that were nominally less advanced yet implacable." Most every American has seen the humiliating images of the 'last helicopter taking off from Saigon, and the chaos of the mad scramble to board the last plane departing in Kabul.' [I would throw in the second Iraq war].

"But the loss to Iran is different: it is the closest we have come to outright military defeat." U.S. forces pulled out of Saigon and Kabul, not because they had been beaten in battle, but because the domestic political cost of propping up client regimes became too great. 

"All indications are that the main reason the Trump administration is again calling off major operations against Iran is that America is running critically short of ammunition [+ weapons]. "Most reports, like one from the Wall Street Journal, say that Trump is backing down because military professionals have finally managed to convince him that U.S. stocks of advanced munitions are so severely depleted that the current rate of use will soon leave America critically weakened."

It should worry everybody that replenishing these stocks will take years—even after the shooting stops. "For example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the US has expended more than half of the Patriot missiles it had before the war, and that it will take until 2029 to replace them [see graphic]. As Krugman states, "the administration’s response to such reports, exemplified by recent remarks by Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, is three-fold: munitions aren’t depleted—or anyone leaking the fact that they are depleted should go to jail—or it’s Joe Biden’s fault."

The fixed belief that “lethality” is how you win surely led to basic inability to anticipate the blindingly obvious: that we have a limited supply of sophisticated weapons and that the Iranians could close the Straits of Hormuz.

Seems to me that Krugman just about nailed it. Reminiscent of when Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to the door of the Castle Church in Wittenberg.

Grist: "A swarm of solar ‘bees’ are coming to western North Carolina community hubs."

In the photo you can see solar arrays + batteries + associated gear being installed in a pair of standard shipping containers [red stars]. These small-scale solar microgrids for Appalachian communities could help keep communities warm + fed during future blackouts.

Nearly 2 years ago, Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina hard with flooding + grid outages. With the Appalachian mountains repeatedly battered by extreme rain + flash flooding in recent years, small-scale energy resilience projects are catching on.

"The state Department of Environmental Quality invested $5 M in 26 microgrid projects last August, in partnership with a coalition of nonprofits dedicated to the expansion of sustainable energy."  The goal is to build 24 stationary microgrids + 2 mobile ones. 

"This mirrors similar projects in storm-battered communities across the United States and its territories." Private + nonprofit microgrid networks have helped keep Puerto Rican communities electrified through increasingly violent hurricanes + an aging grid prone to frequent blackouts. Hurricane Ida prompted churches + community centers in New Orleans to launch a string of privately funded “lighthouses.” Stationary microgrids remain in one place, while mobile microgrids are found throughout the country, sometimes powering essential infrastructure like hospitals + wastewater treatment plants. 

"The small, portable, trailer-mounted systems, which the renewable energy advocates at the nonprofit Footprint Project call “beehives,” feature batteries and work in sunny and cloudy weather alike. "Cooler bees” include fridges and freezers for medications + food, “power bees” provide charging stations for phones + other devices, “water bees” filter water.  

Sara Nichols of the economic development group Land of Sky Regional Council says they "are essentially setting the model and the precedent for what we hope will be a much bigger statewide and national project to duplicate." 

That's the kind of American resilience I like to see. These storms are not going away.

Lazard: "Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Version 19.0"

Weeks ago I discussed LCOE Version 18.0 from 2025, but mentioned that when the 2026 annual comparison arrived I would repost. The bars represent the range of cost for a given energy source, with all the subsidies stripped out, hence the designation "levelized," as in a fair playing field. Utilities think in megawatt-hours, but take away 3 zeroes + you get the kWhs that you see on your monthly electric bill.

Note first the lower end of utility-scale solar went up from $38 per megawatt-hour to $40 per MWh [red circle] from a yr ago.

Onshore wind, secondly, is unchanged from $37 per MWh [red circle]. [Wind with storage up from $44 to $49 per MWh]. 

These 2 sustainable generation assets continue to be the cost champions.

Coal is up from $71 to $72 per MWh [red arrow appropriately aiming down]. 

Nuclear is up from $173 to $175 per MWh [red arrow pushing ahead with over $100 billion of federal subsidies].

Setting aside for a moment the problems of radwaste, diversion of special nuclear material, radiation releases in the long front end + back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, major accidents—let's just focus on the economics of nuclear energy.

Nukes are slowest to build, + their electricity is the most expensive on the planet. So one can love nukes or not, but instead trust the market + let the chips fall where they may. Yes, we could have a long discussion about SMRs + other novel technologies, but none is proven yet in the US,+ we probably won't see operating plants until the mid-2030s at the earliest. Russia + China have the only examples of operating SMRs, but both are authoritarian countries that can just plow ahead + spend whatever they want. Is that who we are now? 

And should the federal government be picking winners + losers anyway or should the market determine that?

And can any of you explain why globally the number of reactors has declined over the last 2 decades? 

And why the world-wide share of nuclear electricity is down to 9%? 

I look forward to some rational discussion of these points. And please take a stab at answering my questions. Thanks.

FOSSIL DRAGON is the opening act in my Trilogy of Dragons, where Jake Harper is in his last year of a graduate degree in electrical engineering at George Washington University in our nation’s capital. He is staunchly promoting the “electrification of everything” to address the weirding climate, and organizes a group of graduate students to address the civilizational risks of continued exploitation of coal, fossil methane gas and petroleum.

His partner, Abbey London, is completing her last year of an infectious disease fellowship at the affiliated med center. Her climate concern is dealing with the burgeoning threat of tropical and exotic diseases.

Together they operate her parents’ Dragonfly Inn in nearby Virginia.

Personally, each of them must decide if they truly want to commit to their relationship, or succumb to the temptation of past partners.

Meanwhile, another game is afoot, as three women plot an audacious attack on a key federal building. In a clown car. You heard that right. 

My publisher tells me only the paperback is out now, the ebook will not arrive until November. 

I should also mention that on my website - swlawrence.com - you can read the first chapter of all 3 books. Also available is a short video interview.

My books may be ordered from the website, online from almost anywhere, or perhaps best of all—independent bookstores.   

Finally, I am wondering how many of you actually noticed the clown face on the back cover? Cute, right?