u/teardropshot

I wanted to post the full context of Marc Stein's most recent LeBron rumors here since a lot of it — especially the most recent Bronny rumors — were taken out of context. Most of what he's writing is very positive toward Cleveland, but quite frankly, it doesn't seem that they have insider info into the Cavs.

The source is his most recent newsletter, which is paywalled: https://marcstein.substack.com/p/july-fourth-nba-trade-free-agency

(I excluded the embedded tweets that he references in the text.)

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Some important updates from LeBron Watch ...

🏀 James has been spotted in Northeast Ohio multiple times over the past week, which has only amplified the notion that he is indeed strongly weighing a third stint with the Cavaliers ... even though it is completely normal for him to return to his home state in the offseason to reconnect with Akron and thus might just be one of those trips. Yet there is certainly a growing belief among teams competing for James' signature that the lure of the 41-year-old playing out his final chapter with the team that drafted him — compared to, say, early favorites Golden State — is looking more and more like the scenario to beat.

🏀 The Cavaliers were expected by now to have come to terms on a new deal with James Harden and have likewise been in the mix of teams expressing interest in Jonathan Kuminga. All they've actually gone through with so far, though, is agreeing to a minimum deal to re-sign reserve center Thomas Bryant while watching Dean Wade (Philadelphia) and Keon Ellis (Brooklyn) come to terms on new contracts elsewhere. As our pal Brian Windhorst, who also happens to be an Akron native, likes to say this time of year: Now why is that? One conspiracy whisper making the rounds: They want to make sure that they have open roster spots to be able to trade for the Lakers' Bronny James in the event that they are able to welcome Dad back as a free agent signee.

🏀 The Sixers, Nuggets and Timberwolves, league sources say, all still believe that they are in this race to some degree and getting legitimate consideration from James and his camp alongside the Cavaliers, Warriors and Heat. On his latest Game Over podcast with Max Kellerman, Paul certainly spoke glowingly of the Anthony Edwards-led Timberwolves and their coach Chris Finch.

🏀 This part is purely read/analysis from The Stein Line rather than reporting: The Warriors and the Timberwolves might actually have the players (and coach) that most appeal to James. (Miami's pitch is compelling on those fronts, too.) Golden State also offers the luxury of more reachable travel-wise than any other leading bidder from Los Angeles, where James and his family have been ensconced for the past eight years. Yet the question persists: Is James truly prepared to play out his record 24th and potentially final NBA season as a Warrior or Timberwolf or Sixer or Nugget? That is among Cleveland's unquestioned advantages here. The Cavaliers can offer a storybook ending as well as a real shot at a trip to the NBA Finals. Strong combination. Maybe even doubly strong when you are also likely to turn the season into documentary content.

🏀 The Stein Line reported earlier this week (above) that the Spurs — who struck a deal Wednesday to sign Tobias Harris away from Detroit — were not expected to join the LeBron chase. That continued to be the expectation entering the holiday weekend even after the Spurs were mentioned by Paul on his podcast among 10 realistic destinations:

🏀 However …

We must add this as a catch-all disclaimer/reminder from Paul himself in a quote he gave to ESPN when it comes to the Spurs and perhaps all of the above depending on how literally you want to take the words: "Every day things change."

Source: https://www.hoopshype.com/story/sports/nba/2026/06/28/nba-intel-jaylen-brown-trade-talks-jalen-durens-free-agency-nikola-jokics-future-tyler-herro-more/90729174007/

This source isn't paywalled, so you can click into the link. It's mostly in line with what Windhorst and Stein have reported besides the number of suitors for Wade, which surprised me.

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Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade is expected to have various suitors in free agency, including the Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Phoenix Suns, Detroit Pistons, and Portland Trail Blazers, league sources told HoopsHype. 

The Cavaliers had a chance to extend Wade last offseason, but couldn’t agree on a new deal. There were also trade talks with the Houston Rockets before the franchise eventually added Dorian Finney-Smith. However, the Cavaliers kept Wade instead, and he helped the franchise advance to the Eastern Conference Finals this past season. 

Now, the 29-year-old forward is not expected to give Cleveland a hometown discount upon entering unrestricted free agency. The 76ers recently hired longtime Cavaliers general manager Mike Gansey as their new president, who identified Wade as a rookie two-way player. The Blazers had the third-worst shooting percentage in the league last season (.343), while the Lakers ranked 14th, and the Pistons and 76ers ranked in the bottom half of the league in that category. Wade, of course, is a capable 36.7 percent career 3-point shooter and a noted defender. 

Meanwhile, as the Cavaliers navigate James Harden’s return and Wade’s free agency, Cleveland’s Max Strus and Dennis Schroder have been mentioned in trade talks with the franchise currently projected over the second apron. 

With that in mind, after finding Jaylon Tyson in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft to give themselves a young, cheaper rotation option, the Cavaliers appear to feel equally bullish about rookie Meleek Thomas, who turns 20 on August 6th. Thomas, who was selected 34th overall in the second round of the draft, is expected to agree to a standard NBA contract with the second-round exception, HoopsHype has learned.

Sixers (who I believe have the full NTMLE) are interested in Wade:

The Raptors hope to come to terms on a new deal with the Georgian forward before the marketplace opens, but Mamukelashvili is expected to have multiple suitors at a sizable portion of the full $15 million midlevel exception if he does not score a new deal from Toronto before Tuesday evening at 6 PM ET.

The same holds for Cleveland's Dean Wade.
While the Cavaliers, sources say, are still prioritizing the return of the versatile swingman, Wade is expected to draw interest from various playoff teams. Philadelphia, we're told, is among them.

Brooklyn is interested in Ellis:

Keon Ellis, meanwhile, appears less likely to stay in Cleveland ... unless the Cavaliers lose Wade.

One anticipated landing spot for Ellis is Brooklyn, where the defensive-minded guard could reunite with Nets coach Jordi Fernández, who was an assistant in Sacramento during Ellis' Kings tenure.

All of this seems in line with what Windhorst has told ESPN Cleveland (go to the linked video).

Not directly related to the Cavs, but it seems that there is a lot of demand across teams for big men, and because of that there is a lot of movement in FA for big men.

Source (paywalled): https://marcstein.substack.com/p/yes-more-of-the-nbas-latest-trade

Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/marcstein/p/the-giannis-antetokounmpo-trade-latest-b5f?r=nuq3a&utm\_medium=ios

If the Bucks indeed choose Boston’s offer over Miami’s, sources say now, Milwaukee ownership’s insistence on getting a bonafide star (Jaylen Brown) back for Giannis would be among the deciding factors … as much as the Bucks want to hold two lottery picks in Tuesday’s draft.

Donovan Mitchell is eligible a $272 million extension on July 7th.

>Mitchell has two years remaining on his contract and is eligible this summer sign a four-year, $272 million extension. The $60.6 million salary in 2027-28 would replace the $50.1 million player option. He would earn $75.2 million at the age of 34 in 2030-31.

According to all the reporting I've read from ESPN and the Athletic this year, it appears that the Cavs are very eager for him to sign an extension this summer. The Harden trade was done in part, for instance, because of pressure from Mitchell.

Two weeks ago, Windhorst talked about how there is a chance that Mitchell will not re-sign this year (see first ten or so minutes of that video). The $272 million extension is the max for nine years of service. If Mitchell waits a year, he is eligible for a larger payday. From the (Bobby Marks) ESPN article again:

>If Mitchell waits until the 2027 offseason, he would be allowed to sign a five-year, $352 million contract with Cleveland. The caveat is playing out the season on an expiring contract.

I believe there can also be a no-trade clause attached after ten years of service.

Mitchell is effectively on an expiring deal for us going into next season, since only the next year of his contract is guaranteed -- his 2027-2028 deal ($53 million) is a player option. Windhorst mentioned in his interview that an "outside consultant" would advise Mitchell to wait a year because this player option offers built-in insurance for Mitchell.

I didn't think much about the player option when he signed his first extension with us, but it does seem to give him extraordinary leverage. Mitchell has said all the right things about wanting to stay in Cleveland. However, it does also appear that he has large monetary incentives to wait a year. This feels incredibly risky for the Cavs. To paraphrase Windy again: If he waits a year, he could potentially leave the Cavs in free agency next June and we would lose him for nothing. If he gets injured over the course of the next season, he can always just opt into the player option. We take on all of the risk if he does not sign an extension with us.

I've written a lot here. My guess still is that the organization will have an extension done in July, if only because they have been very willing to make big moves to appease him, and there is probably some level of understanding that he will stay before they made those moves. If we don't hear anything on July 7th though, does anyone know how much we should be prepared to hear about a Mitchell trade? Or does it seem possible even then that the organization will bet that he signs an extension next year?

All of the destinations that would presumably appeal to him, as we've written at length previously (below), would almost certainly require James to take a substantial pay cut from the $52.6 million he earned in 2025-26.

That reality alone makes it difficult to project what the 41-year-old will ultimately do.

Staying with the Lakers is widely believed to be his preferred choice because he is so entrenched in Los Angeles now after eight seasons with the purple and gold. Yet league sources maintain that Golden State remains legitimately interested in adding LeBron to their Stephen Curry/Jimmy Butler/Draymond Green core coached by Steve Kerr ... with the pitch presumed to include the idea that LeBron could commute from Los Angeles to some TBD degree without having to move his family.

The idea of a third stint for James as a Cleveland Cavalier is harder to envision not only because of the severe financial limitations that the Cavs would face in trying to bring him back to the Northern Ohio but the sheer distance from what has been established since the summer of 2018 as James' Southern California base.

https://open.substack.com/pub/marcstein/p/the-nbas-up-to-the-minute-trade-chatter?r=1m9zg&utm\_medium=ios

Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/marcstein/p/sunday-best-the-latest-nba-intel?r=nuq3a&utm\_medium=ios

Early projections on the likely ballpark for Young's new deal with the Wiz: $120 million over three seasons. Young has until June 23 — Night 1 of the draft — to activate or bypass the player option. He's eligible for a three-year extension worth nearly $160 million until June 30.