u/Alarmed-Error529

MARKET: MLB MONEYLINE
ODDS SOURCE: FANDUEL

Games 2413
Accuracy 0.5570
Brier score 0.2440
Brier skill score 0.0168
Log loss 0.6807
A/E ratio (all) 0.9564
───────────────────────────
Market brier 0.2423
Model vs mkt brier 1.0071
───────────────────────────
CLV (opening line bets vs closing line)
Games w/ both odds 2411
CLV mean +0.0031
Beat closing line % 50.00%
Edge vs close mean +0.0678
───────────────────────────
── Bets Against Opening Line ──
EV bets 1780
EV ROI +0.0150
EV p-value 0.2854
EV significant False
All-bets ROI +0.0151
Sharpe 0.0134
Max DD (units) 53.37
A/E ratio 0.9198
Kelly profit $-273.57
Kelly ROI -0.0297
Kelly Sharpe 0.0239
Bootstrap ROI +0.0143
95% CI [-0.0353, +0.0677]
Prob of profit 0.7010
───────────────────────────
── Bets Against Closing Line ──
EV bets 1796
EV ROI +0.0145
EV p-value 0.2954
EV significant False
All-bets ROI +0.0185
Sharpe 0.0127
Max DD (units) 54.57
A/E ratio 0.9063
Kelly profit $-144.46
Kelly ROI -0.0097
Kelly Sharpe 0.0466
Bootstrap ROI +0.0137
95% CI [-0.0371, +0.0664]
Prob of profit 0.6970
───────────────────────────
── Bets Against Closing line @ 1% vig (prediction market proxy) ──
EV bets 2263
EV ROI +0.0558
EV p-value 0.0106
EV significant True
All-bets ROI +0.0546
Sharpe 0.0485
Max DD (units) 44.73
A/E ratio 0.9370
Kelly profit $+1,264.20
Kelly ROI +0.0226
Kelly Sharpe 0.1086
Bootstrap ROI +0.0552
95% CI [+0.0017, +0.1029]
Prob of profit 0.9770
───────────────────────────
── Bets Against Opening line @ 1% vig (prediction market proxy) ──
EV bets 2263
EV ROI +0.0508
EV p-value 0.0161
EV significant True
All-bets ROI +0.0505
Sharpe 0.0451
Max DD (units) 44.91
A/E ratio 0.9424
Kelly profit $+1,366.19
Kelly ROI +0.0306
Kelly Sharpe 0.1112
Bootstrap ROI +0.0514
95% CI [+0.0064, +0.0973]
Prob of profit 0.9880

I’m talking moneylines, spreads, totals for sports like MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB, NBA.

How much time after the lines are released will I have to bet them at opening price?

Is there a good place to monitor to see when opening odds have dropped or is that something I gotta create myself

Any help is appreciated, thank you!

I’ve been pretty curious what kinds of approaches people in this sub use. Obviously you don’t have to give away any of your secrets, but I feel like a general high level overview would be nice to see.

I come from more of an applied ML background, so my approach has always been how can I build the best ML model in order to be profitable.

I guess if you’re not doing ML, it’s more of a traditional statistical route?

Curious to hear people’s experiences with both approaches and which ones worked better for you guys

It seems pretty accepted that closing lines are as close to the true probability as we can get, but I’ve always been a little bit skeptical on that.

I assume closing lines are probably not super efficient on really niche markets, so maybe it’s possible to be (+) CLV and (-) ROI on those markets, but I was just curious about other people’s experiences. Obviously it’s possible in a short noisy sample, but I’m talking about large samples

Also, do closing lines at recreational books like draft kings have any merit? Or is it best to use the closing lines of a sharper book like pinnacle? I imagine when you devig the odds they’re almost identical, but I haven’t looked into this too much

Thank you!