u/BostonSucksatHockey

 A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
 favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
 form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
 to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
 monitor the progress of this system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

JTWC has taken over from NHC for issuing advisories.

Sunday will be a bit on the cool side with highs in the mid 60s under light winds and increasing clouds. A few showers will be around in the afternoon and evening.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/weatherstory

Saturday will be much cooler than Friday with highs in the low 70s under mainly sunny skies and light winds.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/weatherstory

Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Discussion

>Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z  18.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  18.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  19.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z  19.7N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z  19.9N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z  20.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z  20.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z  20.5N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z  20.7N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

High temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees above normal under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/weatherstory

Expected to be a short-lived system.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
----------------------------------------------
INIT  29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

To emphasize: this is not necessarily the most likely model solution to verify. And to be absolutely clear, this storm will NOT be anywhere near as strong or large as Superstorm Sandy. The storm may not retrograde as shown here, and may instead either linger off the coast of Long Island or even skedaddle off to the northeast.

However, the ECMWF model is one the most reliably accurate models within this time frame (i.e., 90-120 hours), and so this worst case scenario is plausible. And this weekend's full moon will lead to increased coastal impacts (Sandy also occurred during a full moon).

What does this mean for us?

1. Coastal flooding and beach erosion. Persistent northeasterly winds will likely create problems for Long Island Sound facing communities from The Bronx to Montauk and for bay facing communities along Fire Island. If the storm does retrograde as depicted, winds would shift to be more easterly or southeasterly, which would then create problems for ocean facing communities from Montauk all the way down the New Jersey coast. Moderately high fetch will lead to waves and swells up to 8-12' and will create a high risk of rip currents; High tides will rise well past their normal limits, especially with the Full Moon on Saturday, leading to coastal flooding and beach erosion.
2. Windy with Gale/Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts. Winds will be strongest along the coast, but even inland areas could experience sustained winds up to 25-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. Winds will likely begin picking up in velocity by Saturday morning, initially over eastern Long Island and then westward, peaking overnight Saturday into Sunday. Loose objects and decorations will be blown around. Tree limbs and overhead wires may also blow down. Power outages possible in Suffolk County.
3. Rainfall should be modest but flooding could be possible. Easterly winds all week will keep the region cool and stable, and subject to very isolated, very light showers. As the Nor'easter approaches, bands of rain will pass over the region from east to west, with steadier and heavier rainfall beginning Saturday afternoon or evening and continuing overnight. The aforementioned stability suggests a steady stratiform rain as opposed to heavier convective rain; but PWAT values around 2.0" and an enhanced low-level jet could result in a period of heavy rain overnight into Sunday, possibly some rumbles of thunder. The early consensus QPF calls for around 1" for NYC and up to 2" for Long Island, but flash flooding could be possible with overnight downpours, If the storm retrogrades as depicted, an additional 1/2" - 1" is possible on Sunday.

TL;DR - It's going to be an ugly Saturday night.

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
 Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
 Baja California, and on Hurricane Polo, located a few hundred
 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

 1. Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
 The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several 
 hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, has produced an 
 increase in showers and thunderstorms over the last few hours. The
 environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for
 further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
 during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-
 northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands
 should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
 An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days
 to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental 
 conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a 
 tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as 
 the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This 
 motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and 
 southwestern Mexico.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Katz/Pasch

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
 Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

 1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
 A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa
 tomorrow. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be
 particularly conducive, some slow development of this system is
 possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far
 eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor
 the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain
 are possible there by the end of the week.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Mostly cloudy south, and becoming partly sunny north during the afternoon on Tuesday, with temperatures continued slightly cooler than average. Breezy, especially along the coast.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/weatherstory

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Gulf of California:
An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of California is 
bringing heavy rains to portions of the Mexican state of Sonora.  
Although the development chances appear to be decreasing since the 
system is expected to move inland later this morning, heavy rains 
will likely continue across portions of the state of Sonora 
during the next day or so, and could cause isolated flooding.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico within the next few days.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development, and this system could become 
a tropical depression early next week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for 
significant development through the weekend as the system moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph.  However, some gradual development of this 
system is possible early next week when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster CangialosiTropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Gulf of California:
An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of California is 
bringing heavy rains to portions of the Mexican state of Sonora.  
Although the development chances appear to be decreasing since the 
system is expected to move inland later this morning, heavy rains 
will likely continue across portions of the state of Sonora 
during the next day or so, and could cause isolated flooding.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico within the next few days.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development, and this system could become 
a tropical depression early next week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for 
significant development through the weekend as the system moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph.  However, some gradual development of this 
system is possible early next week when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi