u/Ubersicka

U.S. commercial real estate is showing another major sign of stress.

According to Trepp’s latest September 2026 data, the office CMBS delinquency rate rose to 12.16%, up 16 basis points from August. That is above the peak seen during the Global Financial Crisis.

CRED iQ's broader measure was even higher, putting office CMBS delinquencies at 13.2% in August, with the office special-servicing rate reaching 15.7%.

One important distinction: much of the current stress is being driven by maturing loans that cannot be refinanced at existing valuations and interest rates, rather than borrowers simply missing monthly payments. CRED iQ estimates that 71% of distressed office balances are tied to failed or imminent refinancing.

Source: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate at Highest Level This Decade – Commercial Observer

The key question now is whether lenders continue extending troubled loans or begin forcing more restructurings, sales and foreclosures.

Is this primarily an office-sector problem, or could it eventually spill over into banks, credit markets and the broader economy?

• MP Materials $MP +6.3%

• USA Rare Earth $USAR +3.4%

• Trilogy Metals $TMQ +2.9%

• Lithium Americas $LAC +2.0%

USA Rare Earth's stock is ~15% lower than when Trump Administration got equity stake

$NKE is flashing two massive bullish catalysts that market sentiment hasn't fully priced in:

1. ~$986M Refund Injection: Nike hit a pure cash windfall following the Supreme Court's IEEPA tariff invalidation. They didn't have to refund consumers, meaning nearly $1B drops straight onto their balance sheet to fund operations and dividends.

2. Whale Accumulation: Donald Trump disclosed buying up to 250k ofNKE Class B shares in his recent OGE ethics filings.

With Elliott Hill executing operational resets and $9B in total cash reserves backing the balance sheet, is $NKE primed for a massive mean-reversion rally, or are supply chain headwinds still a trap?

President Trump has announced that CNN, MS NOW (formerly MSNBC), and Politico are banned from the White House, effective immediately, over what he calls "constant fake news" reporting.

In the statement, he also cited the roughly $8 million in Politico subscriptions purchased by the federal government under the Biden administration, calling it corruption. He says more outlets could follow.

Source: https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/2101101916399001773

What do you think? Is this a legitimate response to biased coverage, or a threat to press access? Or maybe vendetta for his first term when many social media were banned?

Nike's yield looks great until you see why it exists. The payout didn't grow into it — the stock halved into it. $1.64 annualized against a $35.78 share price, after a ~49% drawdown over 12 months and a fall to the lowest levels since 2014.

So the question isn't "is 4.6% attractive." It's "is 4.6% real."

**The cash flow math (fiscal years end May 31):**Cash from operations fell to $2,868M in FY26 from $3,698M in FY25, partly on a big receivable build tied to an outstanding tariff recovery. FCF is down roughly two-thirds from FY2024.

Why a cut still isn't the base case:

• $9.0B in cash and short-term investments. A $2.4B dividend runs off the balance sheet for years.
• Investment grade (A+ / A2), net debt ~1.4x EBITDA, interest coverage ~12x.
• They already pulled the lever: buybacks went $4.25B (FY24) → $2.99B (FY25) → $123M (FY26). The repurchase was sacrificed to protect the dividend. That tells you the priority order.
• 24 straight years of increases. Boards defend streaks.

Three dates that settle it:

1. Oct 1 — Q1 FY27. Watch gross margin excluding tariff effects, China direction, digital comps.
2. Nov 16–17 — Investor Day. New CFO David Denton started in August, and new CFOs rewrite capital allocation frameworks.
3. Mid-November — the dividend declaration. Another 1-cent raise keeps the streak but confirms caution. A flat dividend breaks 24 years and would be very loud.

Not financial advice. Numbers from Nike's 10-K filings - FY26 FCF is derived (opcash less capex) and approximate.

Check the earnings quality. FY26 EPS was $2.10, but $0.52 of that was an expected IEEPA tariff recovery. Management said EPS would have been ~$1.58 without it. Against $1.58 the payout ratio is over 100%. Against FCF/share it's ~110%.

And look at the raise history: 12% → 11% → 11% → 9% → 8% → 3%. A board confident in its cash flow does not raise by one cent.

My read: the dividend survives, but it likely stops growing. You're getting 4.6% with no inflation protection, currently funded from the balance sheet rather than operations. That's compensation for risk, not a free lunch.

Happy to be argued with on the China assumptions.

From iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro, and iPhone 18 Pro Max to Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, and AirPods 5…

Joke on side, many skeptic people on that product, but i think it's a great tool to check the market. What do u think about it?