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u/robmoo_re

▲ 9 r/Colts

[OC] The Colts Biggest Comeback Wins Since 2002

Some crazy comebacks courtesy Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Of course the 45-44 win against the Chiefs, and a rogue Matt Hasselbeck leading a comeback against the Falcons in 2015 at #7

perthirtysix.com
u/robmoo_re — 13 days ago
▲ 16 r/bengals

Bengals Biggest Comebacks Since 2015

By demand, my post yesterday was the "most exciting games", which tend to be higher tension throughout; there were quite a few mentions of memorable comebacks, like the Seahawks game in 2015. These are the biggest Bengals comebacks since 2015, ranked by minimum win probability.

perthirtysix.com
u/robmoo_re — 13 days ago
▲ 283 r/nfl

Jets finish the 2025 season with incredibly uncompetitive football, averaging 7% win probability during their last 5 games

u/robmoo_re — 14 days ago
▲ 59 r/nfl

Broncos, Jags, Bears, and Patriots led the league in Fight Score in the 2025 season

The fight score is the cumulative win probability overcome in wins. For example, in the Broncos game against the Giants, they were down to a 0.8% chance to win with 5:21 left in the 4th quarter. They eventually won that game, earning them a +99.2% fight score for the game.

The fight scores for the seasons simply sum the fight scores across all wins.

The win probability model used takes into account the Vegas pre-game line. A -3.0 line is about a 60% kickoff win probability, and a -7.0 line is about 75% win probability.

You can click on any of the teams to see the game-by-game breakdown of fight score.

perthirtysix.com
u/robmoo_re — 15 days ago
▲ 74 r/Saints+1 crossposts

I spent the week making NFL Draft Report Cards. Built with Vue.js and D3.js

u/DickButkisses — 22 days ago
▲ 33 r/eagles

Instead of looking at total player value, this looks at which team has the probability of landing the best player of all selected, based on how players in that selection and of that position have performed historically.

Even with this conservative metric, the Eagles are heavily favored in their trade with the Rams yesterday.

This analysis also doesn't account for the fact that Uar is a HOF lock

u/robmoo_re — 25 days ago
▲ 11 r/dataisbeautiful

Built with Vue.js and D3.js

We put together a grid ranking all 32 NFL teams at every position for the last 20 years, 2006–2025. Each cell is a team's rank (1–32) at a position based on how their picks over- or under-performed the historical expected value of the slots they were taken at.

A few things you can do with it:

  • click any cell to see every pick a team made at that position
  • click a position label to see the league's best picks and biggest busts, broken out by draft day (day 1 / day 2 / day 3)
  • switch the sort between efficiency, pick count, and estimated draft capital spent

This is built on our pVAR metric, a career-value metric that combines per-snap grades, approximate value, and awards. Recent classes are weighted lightly e.g. tapered at 25%, 50%, 75% for 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.

u/robmoo_re — 29 days ago