u/alex8762

Trade would happen after July 1 when the poison pill provision ends.

Denver-

Gets an expiring contract and ok bench 3&D wing in Josh Green that can play a KCP like role with Jokic. Shot 40% from 3 this year while getting rid of Christian Braun so they can pay Peyton Watson. Denver also

sends out a 2nd round pick to compensate Brooklyn for facilitating the offloading of Braun.

Charlotte-

gets rid of the bad Tre Mann contract while getting Christian Braun, who despite having his reputation ruined, still has some upside due to his young age, and has skills the hornets need, such as cutting, another shooting threat, decent defense in the regular season. Since the stakes in Charlotte or lower, he can play better for them, and at least be more versatile than Josh Green and would be far better a player than Mann, Green and Williams combined.

Brooklyn-

gets 2 2nd round picks from Charlotte and Denver to absorb Charlotte's bad contract(since Brooklyn has over 30M in cap space). Tre Mann has a small chance of improving due to still showing flashes of shooting, and would be an extra ball handler if Saraf is unplayable next year.

I've warmed up on Acuff as best guard available or at least lowest risk. All the guards are still head and shoulders above the wings and centers IMO, so they were drafted higher.

Why the wolves would do it:

Miles Bridges is younger, has a shorter contract, and is cheaper. This year he bought into being a 4th option and has played well without the ball, being a good lob and spot up threat, so he won't be stealing touches from Ant. He can also play at a faster pace, so he doesn't set the flow of the wolves' offense.

Why the hornets would do it:

Bring a bigger veteran true power forward with playoff experience who plays with lots of physicality and would be a good culture setter on a hornets team ending their rebuild.

This draft MDJ will have an opportunity to cook with the 54th pick. Thankfully there seem to be quite a few possibly NBA quality bench players this year who have a high chance of falling. Here are some players that the warriors could use on their bench.

Here are some intriguing 2nd round prospects who declared for now.

Highlight video under each description

1.Eliot Cadeau

6'0

The starting PG of UM's championship team. Projected to be undrafted. A decent playmaker and shooter. Can't be worse than Pat Spencer and will have chemistry with Yaxel, Mara or Morez if they're drafted at 11.

https://youtu.be/y4M7tjQjpAY?si=hL1V5bqYE1KEEgZ9

2.Braden Smith

5'10 Purdue point guard. Projected to be undrafted.

Excellent playmaking, ball handling and BBIQ. Good midrange game and spot up shooting. Could be a nice late round steal and could be our Ryan Nembhard or poor man's CP3.

https://youtu.be/JvTZj8EuzL0?si=G9Nk9hZBmCVPiJse

3. Richie Saunders

Dybantsa's teammate at BYU. Senior. 6'5 with 6'8 wingspan. Was projected in the 40s but dropped due to torn ACL. Excellent spot up shooter and good midrange game. Great off ball BBIQ, hustles for boards. Has NBA level size for a wing. Main issues are lack of lateral speed and athleticisk, but his positive wingspan will hopefully help with him being a serviceable defender in the NBA.

Comparison: taller Podz. Kerr will probably cheat on podz for him.

Nevertheless he would be a steal at pick 54.

https://youtu.be/CQG8IBHs2KA?si=-EXofXdR8hI\_3DQ3

4. Jack Kayil

Played for Germany in U19 with Christian Anderson. 6'0 point guard. Don't know much about him but performed well at the combine

https://youtu.be/KrCblK5G4ac?si=i26OzmC3lJBUa2aZ

5. Trevon Brazile

Acuff's teammate at Arkansas. 6'10 stretch forward. Senior. Good defender and quite athletic. Most likely won't drop to 54 but a must pick if he's still available.

https://youtu.be/vrhYRi\_tVuI?si=iW9\_ehrQXHnAHNv7

6. Milos Uzan

6'3 guard at Houston. Senior. Highly athletic and great defender and cutter. Can't shoot 3s. Could be our GP2 2.0(GP3?)

https://youtu.be/fazF\_2ABWGI?si=QWUNNEkR5Hq30Gvi

7. Andrej Stojakovic

Peja Stojakovic's son. 21yo. 6'7 wing who has shown good athleticism and verticality. Great slasher, good ball handling and an excellent off ball cutter. Main issue is that he has a hitch in his shooting form, making him a poor 3 point shooter. Could be our jumbo GP2 or Kuminga from the slums of Serbia who's actually willing to play off ball.

https://youtu.be/jkSkYIoUW8w?si=IBN3ELSYeYcjhlJG

8. Alexandros Samodurov

6'10 Greek forward. 18yo. Bench player for Panathiniakos. Has shown 3 point shooting potential , good footwork and fluidity for his height. Still very raw and doesn't have an NBA ready body.

https://youtu.be/uPhwuHr5fTg?si=7kHTcrC\_ZujUXKiW

This time used the ESPN app since it seems to have the updated list of players in the combine.

Most exciting lineups with these picks:

1. Wemby and Luigi Suigo double big lineup being fed l by Braden "vanilla CP3" Smith

2. Podz-Gui-Yaxel 3 man game

3. Cameron Carr - Cason Wallace - Caruso - Wiggins - Mitchell small ball death lineup

4. Ebuka Okorie on the raptors

5. Labaron- Kyrie -Cooper- PJ- Lively starting lineup

6. Sergio De Larrea 6th man floor general on the Knicks

7. Burries- Daniels- JJ- Okongwu- Quaintance switchable defense nightmare lineup

Nets:

Get a protected frp, Horford and great 6th man Melton

Warriors:

Get Ziare Williams, who's being slept on and can become an excellent 3&D wing, i.e. the next Jaden McDaniels

Orlando attracts Reaves with a 168M 4 year extension (42M a year) to reflect his talents.

Orlando does a painful sacrifice for a starting level near all star point guard that can remove any ball handling responsibilities from PB and can make Suggs have only a 3&D role, i.e. unlock Orlando's talent.

Lakers get a young star SF to pair with Luka and take Isaac's garbage contract in exchange for getting a younger star forward.

​

How Orlando benefits:

Orlando gets Draymond as an expiring, which will give them much more cap flexibility next year to sign a star point guard free agent. He's worse offensively than Suggs, but a much better defensive and offensive playmaker,which the magic need. He'd also be a great fit in the Magic's culture of gritty physical defense.

In Orlando since he wouldn't have to carry the offense nor play small ball 5, he would be able to play with max effort every game, with less hail mary passes resultinh in turnovers, and be a better spot shooter due to not being gassed.

The magic also receive Podziemski to be a point guard off of the bench on a cheap contract, whos a career 37% shooter, healthy(played 82 games this season ), good cutter, good rebounder, good team defender and has limited self creation ability. While not being very efficient in the playoffs, he has shown more consistency than Suggs there, and brings more offensive playmaking. He also is more than willing to play off ball and defer to the star players so he wouldnt be taking touches away from Franz, Bane, or PB.

How the Warriors benefit:

The warriors get another proven defensive player who's still relatively young in age, who they can play as a tank commander when theyre rebuilding and try to rehab his value.

They also get more positional size with DaSilva, who's still young and very inconsistent but has shown good 3&D potential. He would bring youth(though with a limited ceiling) and size to a team with too many guards.

DaSilva hasn't been a needle mover for the magic, so they wouldn't lose that much talent by trading him, especially given that they've prioritised Anthony Black. On the warriors, DaSilva would get more consistent playing time since they'll be tanking, so they can evaluate wether hes a good fit for them.

In this deal, the warriors either let Porzingis walk, or sign him to a 8-10M contract in order to make cap space.

This survivorship bias exists in the discourse of the value of picks in 2 areas-

1. The trade value of NBA 1st round picks. Most teams' fanbases massively overrate the value of picks and act like any trade, hypothetical or existing, for a player in exchange for more than 1 FRP who isnt an All Star is a rip off. In essence, its almost like NBA viewers think the Knicks missed out on 2 future Klay Thompsons, an SGA and 2 Kawhais in exchange for Mikal Bridges.
2. Narratives about how bad teams dont need high draft picks to become contenders because Jokic/SGA/Brunson/Giannis/Butler exist

I constantly see claims that any later first round picks by bad teams that failed to net franchise cornerstones are the result of "bad scouting" rather than bad luck or the draft class being shallow.

Part of this may be because of the failures of the Sacramento Kings being imprinted into the the fabric of NBA draft discourse ,as well as the last 2 drafts having been unusually deep in terms of productive bench or starting players being found in the late first and second round.

Тhe majority of the time this isn't the case.

Most drafts, for example the 2023 one, even if they do have a generational prospect, are top heavy, where theres max 1 or 2 starting or 6th man players after the 4th-6th pick, and the vast majority of players there are 9th-11th men or out of the league after their rookie contract. For example, a 15th pick has something like a 80% chance of becoming someone like Cam Reddish, Frank Kaminsky or Jett Howard and a very low chance to be a borderline all star starter like Desmond Bane.

For the vast majority of non rebuilding teams who have only a contention window of 3-7 years due to the CBA, there's little opportunity cost in trading several unprotected first round picks for a starter filling a skill need, such as Desmond Bane, since teams might burn through 8 mid first round picks over a span of 5-12 years before they stumble on someone like that. The same can be said if Derrick White is traded for 5-8 FRPs. How many more years will it take to find someone like DWhite at the 15th-30th pick?

Of course this only applies to players with no injury history and are still young or in their prime. Trading 5-6 FRPs for such a player is like trading 4-5 lottery tickets for a ticket that hit.

The hornets pay for a young power forward that fits their needs and culture. Gui would be ideal, being able to space the floor, hustle for offensive rebounds. T his year he also learned to get to the rim , to be a good secondary playmaker and a good physical defender.

The warriors get an unprotected hornets FRP for 2027 and 3 SRPs, which would give them assets for a rebuild or for a bigger trade. They also get McNeely, who's really raw but projects to be a good shooter with enough size for the wing, who also fits their post Steph timeline.

The warriors swap their 11th pick for the hornets' 14th and 18th picks.

The hornets are thus able to draft Yaxel Lendeborg or Hannes Steinbach in order to try to get to the playoffs next year who they sorely need, while the warriors who are starting their rebuild get 2 bites of the apple with drafting 2 younger long term project players at lower picks.