u/cowardbeater1969

Interesting semiconductor play: VAT Group AG ($VACN.SW)

Interesting semiconductor play: VAT Group AG ($VACN.SW)

Founded in 1965, this company is based in Switzerland and has locations in Europe, United States, and Asia.

Their primary product sold are vacuum valves.

In simple terms, vacuum valves are designed to isolate, control, and regulate ultra-high vacuum (UHV) environments and gas flows.

VAT is located in the semi supply chain where they supply OEMs/toolmakers like Lam Research, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, and ASML that sell their WFE to chipmakers.

This is important since both Applied Materials and Lam Research mentioned strong outlook for the WFE market for 2027, due to demand from memory and advanced chipmakers.

In 2024, they had 71% market share in vacuum valves, effectively a monopoly.

They expect to grow from 71% to 85% by 2029.

Control valves and transfer valves are two of their highest market share components sold, and they expect semi-related valves to be the core product of their business beyond 2030.

The risk? Iran conflict had lowered their Q1 guidance.

"However, due to conflict-related and temporary disruptions in its supply chain and adjustments to customer specifications, VAT now expects sales for the first quarter of 2026 of around CHF 215 million and below the guidance given at the beginning of March of CHF 240–260 million. The book-to-bill ratio is expected to be around 1.6x for the first quarter."

"The outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February led to partial and temporary disruptions in VAT’s supply chain. Furthermore, late delivery of certain components and materials resulted in shortterm adjustments to existing orders. In total, the negative impact on sales is estimated at approximately CHF 25 to 30 million in the first quarter. The situation has since been mitigated, and the reconfigured orders are expected to be delivered during the second quarter"

However, they have confirmed positive outlook for 2026 and expect that order intake, revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, net profit, and free cash flow for the full year 2026 will exceed the 2025 levels.

https://preview.redd.it/arbledwbdr2h1.png?width=2142&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3cfec68e525ef6f653dcc78252beb2ceb5f3c66

https://preview.redd.it/dtp619fcdr2h1.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=75b0f4dc8caa65d151b2558905ddfe2d0fb8d633

https://preview.redd.it/eac8g6xcdr2h1.png?width=2184&format=png&auto=webp&s=425b7c1087539b2c5d1ee706880a3f291aef43f4

https://preview.redd.it/xn3stqiddr2h1.png?width=1072&format=png&auto=webp&s=20b474d67e67e301c83da36b924cc79763c76210

reddit.com
u/cowardbeater1969 — 13 hours ago

CFO providing visibility on CPU sales for this year alone of $20B

https://preview.redd.it/q14rp7nr2d2h1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c5dd582c6aa05cce6bd3d384fee17f93dd3e55e

“Vera CPU opens a brand new 200 billion town for Nvidia, a market we have never addressed before, and every major hyperscale and system maker is partnering with us to get it deployed.”

“We have visibility to nearly 20 billion in total CPU revenue this year.”

“Track to commence production shipments, starting in Q3.”

For reference: AMD did less than $20B in CPU revenues last 12 months from datacenters.

reddit.com
u/cowardbeater1969 — 3 days ago

Nvidia earnings highlights

Nvidia just had amazing earnings. Here are the highlights:

  • DC networking revenue was a record $14.8 billion, up 199% from a year ago and up 35% sequentially.
  • $80B buyback initiated
  • 25x increase in dividend to $0.25 from $0.01.
  • Total supply-related commitments were $119.0B
  • Vera Rubin on track for 2H of the year.
  • Q1 Data Center revenue grew 92% YoY and 21% QoQ to a record $75.2B
reddit.com
u/cowardbeater1969 — 3 days ago

Samsung memory prices expected to decline in 2H27

This may or may not be a warning sign for Micron and others since margins are the most important thing in this game.

u/cowardbeater1969 — 5 days ago

AI bottlenecks - per 2 engineers on X

Two engineers on X were interviewed to give their inputs on different bottlenecks, whether or not they exist in the AI supply chain. I listened/read both of their interviews and summarized this. Maybe this will give you an idea of where to look at since these are engineers talking about it.

Note: they have a lot of disagreement on various bottlenecks, but that happens...its up to you to research and see who is right.

https://preview.redd.it/4roruoo1zs1h1.png?width=1460&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e8bea0c5bf5d31b378a7b0fa821c94a6fdfa7a7

reddit.com
u/cowardbeater1969 — 5 days ago

My take on Reddit

I had recently started looking at Reddit, and it intrigues me. I feel this company is unique and gets a lot of undeserved criticism.

I did an article on the company if you would like to see my thoughts. This is what I went over:

  • Specificity of questioning/experiences from users enables valuable network effects for Reddit.
  • “Stickiness” of users makes it hard to find alternatives.
  • Advertisements aren’t interrupting, they are targeted and organic. 
  • Proprietary data requires LLMs to lock in contracts with Reddit for unique data.
  • DAU’s up 17% YoY to 126.8M.
  • 74% YoY growth in advertisement revenue in Q1’26; 94% of their revenue.
  • Ad load could be a huge driver to ARPU. 
  • Contract renewal with Google and OpenAI in 2027; may command more money.
  • Analyst stated “Digg” as competition
  • Dilution needs to subside, or completely stop.

Link

u/cowardbeater1969 — 7 days ago

US has approved around 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia $NVDA H200 chips, but no deliveries have been made, per Reuters.

Approved buyers include Alibaba $BABA, Tencent $TCEHY, ByteDance, and JD. com $JD. Lenovo and Foxconn approved as distributors. Each customer can purchase up to 75,000 chips.

Chinese firms have pulled back after Beijing guidance, with the government pushing to protect homegrown chip development. Nvidia's share of AI accelerators in China has "effectively fallen to zero," per Huang.

Jensen Huang joined Trump's China trip after Trump picked him up in Alaska, hoping to unlock the stalled sales at the Beijing summit.

reddit.com
u/cowardbeater1969 — 9 days ago
▲ 1.9k r/SmallCapStocks+1 crossposts

President Trump is currently flying to China with all of the following people to request "deals" with China's President Xi

  1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO

  2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO

  3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO

  4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO

  5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO

  6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO

  7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO

  8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO

  9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO

  10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO

  11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO

  12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO

President Trump also says there are "many other" CEOs joining him on the trip who have not yet been disclosed.

reddit.com
u/Relevant-Wallaby826 — 8 days ago