u/Flag_Shagger

I swear this sub has just been gaslighting everyone about how good 3.7 flash is. I’ve been using it for a while and it is so bad; always forgets stuff, glosses over key information, tiny outputs…my use case is currently just using it for revising MS Finance - oftentimes 20+ files uploaded in chat + quant study…and oh my am I happy I switched back to 3.1 today.

Honestly anyone else feel like they’re being gaslit about 3.7 flash? I swear it’s gotta be google bots trying to force everyone to use the cheaper/shitter model so they can save money.

Maybe for other use cases 3.7 flash is better

If I remember from various posts here SK Hynix is averaging about 600-700k share buybacks a day, which is double the sustainable rate. Despite that, we are still basically flat mtd. My worry is that if buybacks falter for even a moment, where would the price be? For example take today, we finished 1.5% in the green - buy without the buyback support, where would we be? -5%?

Also a full week now foreign institutions have been net selling & lower than average total volume. Makes me wonder when these same firms have incredibly bullish price targets, have very bullish models/forecasts, & still are net selling. Very suspicious.

Idk what to say guys, am I beyond cooked? Is wendy’s really my final destination?

I’m a pretty average student, moderate GPA, GMAT 700, semi target school, nothing impressive really.

How do I get my first piece of work experience?

I am wondering if it’s possible for me as a non-eu national to do an erasmus internship. I know it’s officially supported as it depends on the country your university is enrolled in, but my issue is more so with visas.

Since I’m not an EU national, I don’t have right to work anywhere in the EU. That makes me think nobody is going to hire me as an intern due to visa issues….Does anyone have any experience with this?

We had so much good news over the last month. Market didn’t react at all. Now I’m just wondering: is there any reason for the market to rerate memory upwards again?

All the FUD spread in July got debunked pretty quickly. Bad news is priced in but drops 4 times on the same news. Who would be surprised if CNBC or Bloomberg ran a story on Chinese memory tomorrow, absolutely nobody, but still the stock would drop, even though we’ve heard the same story rehashed a gorillion times. It’s getting a bit tiring.

The market is clearly telling us they don’t believe the asymmetry in memory pricing power will stay. I don’t see how this changes anymore. Think about it:

- If memory prices stay elevated all the way out in 2028, the market will say “well what about 2029!!!!!!!”
- If memory prices stay elevated all the way out in 2030, the market will say “well what about 2031!!!!!!!”

why was the market happy to pay 8xfwd in June & only 4xfwd now? All the FUD. To reverse this we need need the opposite of FUD - GUD. Except everytime we get good news nothing happens.

So if good news is irrelevant, and bad news has a leverage effect, what the hell is even going on anymore?

got invited to the eafc27 beta. last fifa i bought was fifa 17. i immediately booted up seasons and had a game and not only does the gameplay feel really horrible and the camera is trash, but the opponent decides to start time wasting as soon as they go 1-0 up? wtf happened?

it’s a closed beta, in division 10, and people are time wasting to get a win? what the hell is wrong with people?

They could literally buy back >10% of outstanding shares lol

Anyway this is interesting if true; we know Micron plans to return 100% of FCF to shareholders - the implication is clearly that Micron is confident in the structural nature of demand, meaning they don’t need to hedge by keeping some FCF on the balance sheet.

If SK Hynix announce >80% FCF return then it will be a massively bullish sign that SK Hynix is not hedging against cyclicality by keeping excess cash on the balance sheet.

just wanna share my thoughts as a long time COD player. I’ve played all cods from cod 4 - aw and then after that only sparingly. i never played ww2 so I decided to play it for the first time, it’s actually unplayable.

1. the maps are genuinely awful, there is no 3 lane design and every map has 15 different angles you can die from
2. the create a class system sucks
3. the grenade spam is absolutely ridiculous. I’ve never played a call of duty where it’s this bad in mp.

maybe it’s just me but every game i’m playing my teammates are all going negative and the other team is calling in kill streaks every 20 seconds. I’ve played about 10 games and haven’t won a single one. WTF is wrong with this games matchmaking system?

korea is the one who started the huge selloff a month ago, and everytime there’s been a bounce in the U.S. market it gets sold off immediately the next trading session following Korea.

In other words, we need koreans to buy tomorrow but why would they?
- loads of people are liquidated (less capital to support an uptrend)
- institutions prefer to buy the ADR (less capital to support an uptrend)
- leverage being slowly removed from the market thanks to new regulations (less capital to support an uptrend)

also to put it bluntly:
the last months selloff was almost purely mechanical - not fundamental. if we actually double check the mechanics, we need foreign institutions to force the kospi up. ADR is trading at a 60% premium right now …

if korea trades sideways jinky janky again, we are gonna shed all gains by tomorrow. the market is a total joke.

ADR is nearly at the same price as yesterday, before the earnings miss. So how the hell has the ADR recovered so quickly?

It sort of implies that the miss was priced in. But that can’t be right because it dropped immediately by 20% in Korea.

WTF is driving price action anymore?

the market is a joke

the bear thesis cannot be defeated. doesn’t matter what the earnings are, hyperscaler capex doesn’t matter, guidance doesn’t matter.

if the market keeps asking “but what about next year” everytime, the stock will never rerate upwards.

what’s the catalyst to rerate upwards?
\- google earnings: raise capex, RED
\- Sk hynix posts miss: RED
\- interest rates - RED
\- iran war - RED

the bear thesis literally cannot be defeated because they’ll always ignore all the evidence with fear of “but muh cyclical hurt durr”. I just don’t see a way that changes. this is worsened by the fact the kospi is being deleveraged on the way down, meaning anytime we get a reversal it will be slow and painful, and many will sell whenever they get a chance. combined that with the constant fud over the last month and it’s hard to see any reversal at all.

I think SKH is a great fundamental story, but if the market doesn’t, who cares? what’s the catalyst? it was supposed to be earnings. now, we just have to hope institutions start mass buying silently because they have no way to justify buying it after spreading fud for the last month.

the bear thesis cannot be defeated. doesn’t matter what the earnings are, hyperscaler capex doesn’t matter, guidance doesn’t matter.

if the market keeps asking “but what about next year” everytime, the stock will never rerate upwards.

what’s the catalyst to rerate upwards?
- google earnings: raise capex, RED
- Sk hynix posts miss: RED
- interest rates - RED
- iran war - RED

the bear thesis literally cannot be defeated because they’ll always ignore all the evidence with fear of “but muh cyclical hurt durr”. I just don’t see a way that changes.

I mean just think about the fud on memory:

- interest rate hikes (the same hike has been priced in 6 times already - wtf?)
- cxmt: valued at $500b and can’t even match mu supply, can’t compete in hbm, will not even satisfy the chinese market. how is this story derailing the memory narrative yet its the most valued company on the chinese mainland?
- open source models: just deepseek 2.0, this reignites the race & demand for semis, its bullish if anything because it improves the ROI for end users & increases adoption -> higher demand for memory
- earnings miss: fud about SK Hynix gonna miss opearnings by 8%, seriously wtf?
- chinese DUV machines: wow so they can build the same machines they’re already importing? they are bottlenecked the exact same way, nothing about the story has changed except ASML loss DUV sales.
- apple using cxmt: i’ve yet to see a single person believe this story to actually result in anything. people who think trump is gonna import chinese memory are regarded.
- earnings durability: seriously? google just raised capex again, the other will follow suit. all of them say they are supply capped & have over >$1.5tr in backlogs… & neoclouds are saying they’re breaking even on their investments after only 2-3 years.

all evidence points towards the supply glut lasting atleast another 5 years. but sure the memory story is over….let’s all buy apple at 40x earnings 🤡

I mean just think about the fud on memory:

- interest rate hikes (the same hike has been priced in 6 times already - wtf?)
- cxmt: valued at $500b and can’t even match mu supply, can’t compete in hbm, will not even satisfy the chinese market. how is this story derailing the memory narrative yet its the most valued company on the chinese mainland?
- open source models: just deepseek 2.0, this reignites the race & demand for semis, its bullish if anything because it improves the ROI for end users & increases adoption -> higher demand for memory
- earnings miss: fud about SK Hynix gonna miss opearnings by 8%, seriously wtf?
- chinese DUV machines: wow so they can build the same machines they’re already importing? they are bottlenecked the exact same way, nothing about the story has changed except ASML loss DUV sales.
- apple using cxmt: i’ve yet to see a single person believe this story to actually result in anything. people who think trump is gonna import chinese memory are regarded.
- earnings durability: seriously? google just raised capex again, the other will follow suit. all of them say they are supply capped & have over >$1.5tr in backlogs… & neoclouds are saying they’re breaking even on their investments after only 2-3 years.

all evidence points towards the supply glut lasting atleast another 5 years. but sure the memory story is over….let’s all buy apple at 40x earnings 🤡

Look, I get it. The man called 2008, made a billion dollars, got a movie made about him with Christian Bale. Legendary stuff. But can we talk about how this dude has been screaming "beginning of the end" for AI stocks for the better part of a year now while Jensen keeps printing money.

Every quarter it's the same thing. Burry files his 13-F showing he's doubling down on puts against NVDA and PLTR. Financial media runs the headline "Big Short investor warns of collapse." We all panic for about 45 minutes. Then earnings drop, guidance gets raised again, and the stock rips another 8%.

I'm not saying AI isn't overheated. Half the companies slapping "AI" into their earnings calls have about as much actual AI as my toaster. But there's a difference between "this will correct eventually" and being early for so long that you've basically just been wrong.

The guy was massively short on Tesla years ago too. How'd that work out? Sometimes being the smartest person in the room just means you're too early for the room to care.

Meanwhile Wendy's pumped 25% in June because someone posted "save Wendy's" and you degenerates actually did it. So maybe technical analysis was never real to begin with.

What's your actual thesis here though? Do you think Burry finally times this right, or is he just gonna keep rolling those puts into the next expiration until heat death of the universe?