u/MochiHill

Ok so Situational Awareness LP, the AI hedge fund run by that ex-OpenAI guy Leopold Aschenbrenner, just disclosed a 19.9% stake in SharonAI (SHAZ). That's 5.4M shares including pre-funded warrants.

Stock ripped 14% after hours on the news. Was pulling the chart on moomoo and this thing went from a $30 IPO in Feb to $84.66 on june 30, so already up 180% before this filing dropped. Feels late but also feels early idk.

What caught my eye is the setup. SHAZ just closed a $1.6B strategic round on june 22, has a $250M annual compute deal with NVDA, and is deploying 40k Grace Blackwell GB300 GPUs across APAC. Plus a 600 petabyte data partnership with VAST. So this is a pure infra play, not another software wrapper.

Aschenbrenner's fund is sitting on ~270% returns since 2025 and manages $20B+. When someone with that track record concentrates almost 20% into one name, i pay attention. Not saying follow him blindly, plenty of smart money has blown up on concentrated bets. But the thesis (APAC AI infra buildout > US software apps) actually makes sense given how crowded the LLM app layer is.

Execution risk is real tho. 40k GB300s is a massive deployment and NVDA supply is still tight. If they miss timelines the multiple compresses fast.

Anyone else in SHAZ or watching it? Curious if people think 19.9% is a floor signal or if he's already trimming into strength.

Closed out my $MU stuff and I'm just gonna sit on my hands the rest of the session. HBM narrative keeps pulling this thing around and every time I think I've got a read on it, the tape flips on me lol.

Not gonna post the P&L, it is what it is. Some days you take the W, some days the W takes a chunk of your soul. Today was somewhere in between tbh.

Scrolling the moomoo community and half the room is calling top, other half is loading. Feels like nobody actually knows, everyone is just vibing off AI headlines and whatever NVDA does the next morning.

Kinda tired of trading memory names honestly. The moves are big but the setups feel sloppy, and holding overnight into an earnings cycle sounds like a slow way to lose sleep.

Anyone else just tap out early on $MU today? Curious if you're flat, still long, or waiting for a red flush to reload.

Holding a decent bag of $OPEN and honestly just need one clean session without the usual afternoon fade.

Been checking the tape on moomoo all week and every time it looks like it wants to break out, some seller shows up and slaps it back down. Wild how a name this beat up still moves like a meme.

No thesis dump here, no chart printout, just vibes and hope at this point. ngl the anxiety of watching a small cap try to run is a full time job.

If tomorrow opens green and actually holds through power hour, that would be a first this month. If it rugs again into close, might just close the tab and touch grass.

Anyone else still in this thing or did you all bail already? Curious who's still riding and who's waiting for a real breakout confirmation before hopping back in.

A random SNDK chart popped up with just "did I do it bro" as the caption. No thesis, no words, just the chart. Kinda love that energy tbh.

Context: Korea's been ramping chip capex hard and every memory name is catching a serious bid. Been watching SNDK move on the moomoo community feed all week, that whole "memory supercycle" narrative picking up steam again.

These no-thesis chart posts always crack people up, but the setup here isn't a joke. Korea capex flowing straight into DRAM and NAND buildout, and every memory play is feeling it. SNDK looks like the smaller cap way to ride the same wave a lot of people are already chasing through the bigger names.

Anyone else riding the memory wave right now? Or is this the top and everyone piling in at the wrong moment lol

So yesterday Palantir dropped this sovereign isolated deployment engine, basically letting governments run AI fully air-gapped on their own metal. Paired with the NVDA collab they announced back in March, this feels bigger than people are pricing in.

The pitch is clean: cloud AI is a no-go for defense and most federal stuff because of compliance. So PLTR bundles their data platform with Nemotron and NVDA GPUs, ship it as one box, and call it a day. Snowflake, Databricks, Microsoft cant really copy that overnight because they live on the public cloud side.

Was digging through the chart on moomoo this morning trying to figure out if im late again. Honestly the run has been brutal already, but the sovereign AI TAM is supposedly $600B by 2030. Even shaving that down for hype math, the contract sizes get fat fast.

The thing that bugs me is the cert cycles. Government procurement is slow as molasses, and federal budget fights could push deals into next fiscal year. Also, NVDA technically wins either way, PLTR is the higher beta bet here.

Im sitting on a small core, debating adding on any red day. fwiw the volume on PLTR yesterday looked unusual compared to the past few weeks.

Anyone else playing this through PLTR directly or just stacking more NVDA and letting the rising tide do the work? Curious how the options crowd is thinking about IV here, feels rich.

Been digging into the Palantir x NVIDIA sovereign AI thing all weekend and honestly it's bugging me how quiet the chatter is.

Quick recap of what I pieced together from the moomoo news feed: they announced the Sovereign AI OS collab back in March, and yesterday Palantir actually shipped the isolated deployment engine for NVIDIA's Nemotron models. So this isn't a hype slide anymore, it's live in classified environments.

The angle that got me: AWS, Azure, GCP literally cannot walk into a SCIF. Closed source cloud models stop at the door. PLTR + NVDA basically just built the only legal path for frontier AI into intelligence and defense workloads. Projected sovereign AI TAM is $600B by 2030 per the article.

For NVDA it means more GPU clusters into agencies that were previously off limits. For PLTR it means bigger contract values without burning cash building their own foundation model. Both sides win and competitors can't really copy it overnight.

Risks I'm not ignoring: gov certification cycles are brutal, federal budget fights are a thing, and PLTR multiple is already insane. ngl I'm not chasing here, but I'm not selling my runners either.

Pulled the chain on moomoo and the Jan calls are getting some love. Am I being too bullish or does this actually change the PLTR story for the next 2 years?

Been chewing on this all morning. Korea just announced 800 trillion won for four new chip factories in the southwest, another 81 trillion for a packaging plant in Chungcheong, and a plan to double DRAM capacity in five years. On top of that, over 1,000 trillion won earmarked for AI data centers by 2035.

Everyone's gonna pile into Samsung, SK Hynix, maybe MU on the US side. I get it. But this feels like a classic picks and shovels setup to me.

If you're doubling DRAM capacity, you don't get there without ASML scanners, AMAT and LRCX deposition and etch tools, KLAC for metrology, Tokyo Electron all over the line. Same story on materials, Shin-Etsu and SUMCO wafers, DuPont chemicals, Linde gases. The fabs fight each other on memory pricing. The equipment guys just collect orders no matter who wins.

Was pulling up the order book comps on moomoo earlier and the equipment names already have visibility deep into next year. Memory is still hostage to the cycle. Margins compress the second supply catches up, and we know how that movie ends.

Risks I'm not ignoring: overcapacity hangover, export controls getting messier, China indigenization eating into long term TAM. fwiw none of that changes the near term capex flood.

Anyone actually long the memory names here instead of the toolmakers? Curious what the bull case looks like when capacity is literally being mandated to double.

So Korea is going all in on semis. 800 trillion won for four new chip fabs in the southwest, another 81 trillion for a packaging plant in Chungcheong, and over 1,000 trillion won earmarked for AI data centers by 2035. The stated goal is doubling DRAM capacity in 5 years.

Samsung and SK Hynix are obviously the headline names. But honestly the more interesting trade imo is the picks and shovels. Every fab needs litho, etch, deposition, inspection, test, plus wafers and gases. So you're looking at ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC on the front end, then KLIC, TER, ASMPT, Advantest on the back end. Materials side is Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, DuPont, Linde.

Was pulling up the chip equipment chains on moomoo earlier and the order flow on some of these names already looks frontrun. Memory cycle is supposedly turning, AI capex isn't slowing, and now Korea is basically subsidizing the next leg of demand for these tools.

The bear case is real though. Overcapacity risk if everyone (Korea, Taiwan, US, China, Japan) builds at the same time. Margin compression. And the whole thing is one geopolitical headline away from getting nuked.

Am I overweighting the equipment names here? Feels like the cleanest exposure but also feels crowded. Anyone playing this through Micron instead of the toolmakers? Or just sitting it out until we see actual DRAM pricing follow through?

INTC sitting at 137, up 5.41 premarket, semi tape repairing after the 6/17 Warsh FOMC hold and that 6/18 Intel-Apple foundry pop. AI-semi rotation back on. Pulled the ETFs tab on the INTC page and there it is — INTW 2x long, LINT 2x bull, INYY for the option-income angle. Three different ways to express the same thesis without me digging through a separate site.This is the part I keep coming back to: one tap from the underlying to its full lev list. I used to keep a notes file with 'NVDA = NVDL, TSLA = TSLL, INTC = INTW/LINT'. Dumb. moomoo just surfaces it on the stock page with price and % chg inline. If I wanted to short the rip without paying HTB fees I could grab an inverse from the same panel — clean tactical instrument for a 1-3 day catalyst trade, no options gamma headache. And seeing INTW -1.07% while spot is green is a free lesson in decay before you size up.Just try the ETFs tab next time you open any chip name. Way faster than what you're doing now.

Ok so — pulled up the MSFT Daily Brief this morning and it's basically what I needed in 10 seconds. Bid/Ask sitting 90.91% on the bid side, BBO 364.80 vs 364.82, tape leaning green but barely. Brief tagged the Azure AI capex chatter bullish and the rate-sensitive megacap setup bearish given Warsh's higher-for-longer tone from the 6/17 FOMC. Net read: choppy, not directional.Honestly the reason I keep opening this thing every morning is the tagged Bullish/Bearish key events. I used to scroll 40 headlines pre-market and still walk in confused. Now it's sourced, timestamped, and per-ticker — MSFT specific, not some generic megacap recap. The Trading Data lean (RSI/MA/options flow already digested for you) is the part I'd otherwise spend half an hour pulling from five tabs. And one tap takes you straight to the chart or chain to act. Free too, which is kinda wild.This week I'm leaning fade-the-rip on MSFT until 2Y yields cool off. If you're trading megacap into a hawkish Fed, just open the brief first — saves you from getting caught flat-footed.

Look, a Market-If-Touched is the no-nonsense cousin of LIT. Price touches trigger → moomoo auto-sends a MARKET order. You will get filled. Slippage is the tradeoff, certainty is the prize.I use these on TSLA almost exclusively. The thing moves on headlines, Robotaxi/FSD stuff drops out of nowhere, and if I've decided I want in above a level, I want IN — I don't wanna miss a 3% rip because my limit was a penny short. moomoo's MIT sits server-side, fires instantly when touched, and I can layer a stop on the same ticket so the second I'm filled the risk side's already armed. That conditional stack — entry trigger + auto-stop — is the kind of workflow that used to be reserved for desk traders. moomoo just put it in a free app with the chart, options chain and L2 all next to each other. No commission gimmicks either.If certainty of fill matters more than the last nickel, MIT over LIT. Pick your tool for the job. Anyway, just try it on one trade this week.

DELL 428.6, +0.19%, snapshot dated Jun 23. Avg cost 312.8, support 297.2, resistance 446. 89.30% of holders in profit. Range overlap 77.56% — so the bulk of the cost basis is concentrated, not scattered, which means reactions at these levels are gonna be sharp not mushy.Macro lens — Warsh Fed last week leaned higher-for-longer, 10Y bid, and high-multiple stuff has been wobbly. DELL's been riding the AI-server backlog story but the whole memory/AI-infra chain pivots on MU tonight. If HBM commentary disappoints, this 89% profit ratio flips into a problem fast — happy holders become sellers. That's exactly why I keep coming back to this Market Position Overview screen. One tap and I see the supply wall (446), the line bulls defend (312.8 avg cost), and how much of the float is sitting fat. The 90% range 122–450 tells me 450 is the ceiling the whole market agrees on. No volume profile plugin, no drawing tools, just the chip distribution laid out and dated.Real talk, before MU drops just check the snapshot on your AI-infra names. If profit ratio's near 90, trim a little. That's free money insurance.

Look, IV on the memory names is absolutely juiced going into MU 6/24 after close. Every DRAM/NAND name is dancing on this number. I opened the Strategy tab on DRAM (73.17, up 5.71% on the day already), set my view to "may rise" with a 94.35 target, and instead of buying a lotto call blind, moomoo handed me a ranked list. Long 68C at 1787.90 max profit vs Short 80P at 1385.00 profit with 1980 margin — side by side, real numbers, not textbook payoff curves.The payoff chart with the breakeven dot at 76.475 is what sold me. I've eaten IV crush on Micron prints before buying ATM calls thinking I was clever, and seeing the actual P/L line with the orange target line drawn helps me size honestly. The strategy tags do the sorting work — premium sellers go straight to the Short Put card, directional buyers grab the Long Call, defined-risk crowd scrolls for the spread. One screen.Real talk, if Warsh's higher-for-longer tone keeps yields bid, memory multiples wobble. Punch your number in before the bell, see what the builder gives you, then decide if you even wanna be in this print.

Look, the SOUN compare screen on moomoo is kinda wild — SNXX (Tradr 2X) ripping to new highs, SNDU (T-REX 2X) lagging behind, and SNDG the inverse just chilling sideways at 26 bucks. Same underlying, three totally different P&L paths. This is exactly why the lev-ETF panel on the stock page matters.Thursday's PCE is the real macro test this week. Warsh Fed's been hawkish, 2Y bid, and any hot print torches small-cap AI names like SOUN first. If I wanted downside expression I literally don't have to short — SNDG is right there in the panel, -1x, today's chg and volume in the same row so I can see if anyone's actually buying the fade or if it's a ghost town.Got stuck in a SOXS hold thru Jan, watched it decay 40% while the underlying barely moved. Painful. The panel showing leverage factor + today's flow next to each other is what saves you from that — short tactical hold, fine; multi-week, you're paying theta-equivalent every day. Tap into SOUN, scroll to lev ETFs, pick your weapon. That's the workflow.

been digging through the Mag 7 dip on moomoo this week and honestly the price action vs the sentiment gap is wild.

equal-weight basket is basically flat to slightly red ytd. fine. but the BofA June survey says 80% of fund managers think long semis is the most crowded trade, and only 12% still call long Mag 7 crowded. so the "everyone owns it" narrative kinda broke already?

meanwhile 54% expect large caps to beat small caps next 12 months, 48% expect high quality earnings to beat low quality, and momentum preference dropped to net 23% from 44% in may. translation: people are scared of the crowded trade but still secretly want the same names. lol.

bear case i get. capex on AI is brutal, FCF getting squeezed at GOOG AMZN META MSFT, TSLA doing TSLA things. nobody wants to be early on a quality drawdown.

but if forward earnings on these are actually more reasonable than the headlines, and the crowd already rotated out, isn't that like, the setup you usually want? not the setup you run from?

idk maybe i'm coping. been adding small to MSFT and META, sitting on GOOG, not touching TSLA.

anyone else nibbling here or waiting for another leg down? what's your line in the sand on these names

Micron drops fiscal Q3 on the 24th and the setup looks kinda insane. street is at 35.4B rev vs the 33.5B guide, gross margin consensus 81.8%, and net income basically up 1,155% YoY. like, those are not normal numbers.

been watching this on the moomoo community all week and the bull case keeps coming back to one thing, does mgmt actually raise the HBM TAM number. they were throwing around ~35B for 2025 and a ~100B target by 2028, and if they nudge that higher the whole memory complex probably rips. if they dont, i think this thing fades hard even on a beat.

what scares me is the capex. FY26 already pegged north of 25B and FY27 supposedly even bigger. feels like the classic memory cycle trap where everyone is happy until somebody whispers oversupply.

options IV is at 114, 98th percentile rank. straddle is pricing a monster move. i nibbled some shares last week, didnt have the stomach for premium that rich.

couple things i actually want to know:

- can non HBM memory hold these margins or is that the soft underbelly

- is anyone playing this with spreads instead of naked calls/puts

- if MU rips, does SNDK follow or does it stay forgotten

honestly torn between trimming into print and just sitting on hands. anyone else holding through?

ok so MU prints FY26Q3 on the 24th and the consensus numbers are kinda nuts.

revenue estimate sitting at 35.43B vs their own guide of 33.5B. thats up 281% YoY if you trust the street. gross margin pegged at 81.8%. net income est 23.66B which is like 1155% YoY growth lol.

been watching this name on moomoo for a few weeks and IV is at 114% with positive gamma stacking up. translation, dealers are basically capping the move unless something really breaks the script.

heres what i keep going back and forth on:

non AI memory pricing has been carrying a lot of the gross margin story. is that actually durable or are we one inventory build away from giving it back

2026 capex is reportedly headed north of 25B. every memory cycle in history has ended with someone overbuilding. why is this time different

they keep teasing the HBM TAM going from 35B in 25 to ~100B by 28. if mgmt doesnt raise long term HBM guide on the call i feel like the stock just bleeds regardless of the beat

honestly the setup reminds me of nvidia prints last year where you needed a guide raise AND a TAM raise just to hold the line. a clean beat wont cut it.

im flat going in. got burned chasing semis into prints before. anyone actually holding through? and if so are you playing shares or stretching it with calls given that IV crush is gonna be brutal

23.5T market cap across 101 components on the AI Glasses theme — that's the kind of number that gets retail to chase the obvious headline name. moomoo Industry Chain is what stops me from doing that. The map lays out Optical Solution and SoC upstream, then Memory Chip and Sensors & Interaction in the middle, then Contract Manufacturing → Assembly & Integration → Sales & Distribution downstream. The asymmetry jumps out: when a glasses launch headline hits, downstream Assembly names rip first and fade, while upstream Optical and MicroLED suppliers tend to lag and then catch up days later. That's a pair trade you literally cannot see without a value-chain view. This is the part I keep ranting about — moomoo gives you a one-screen supply-chain map with live % chg inline, the same kind of map an L/S analyst would scribble on a whiteboard, except it's already drawn for you and it's free inside the stock page. Into FOMC and Juneteenth, liquidity is going to be weird Thursday. Open moomoo Industry Chain on any theme you're tempted to chase and find the adjacent play before it runs.

FOMC day, Juneteenth Friday, one trading day in between. Everyone's gonna over-trade AAPL on whatever Powell says about the dot plot. I'd rather just stare at moomoo's Industry Chain page for AAPL and let the map do the work.What it shows me: upstream is the entire iPhone BOM — SoC, RF chip, baseband, image sensor, optical lens, battery cell, FPC, enclosure, structural part. Midstream Manufacturing & Assembly. Downstream OEM and Hardware Recycling. The hedge-fund move here isn't long AAPL into a hawkish Fed — it's spotting which upstream node is already pricing the cyclical slowdown vs which one is still rich. Image sensor and optical module names trade very differently from memory/flash on a rate shock, and Industry Chain puts the live % chg on every single chip so you actually see the leadership inside the chain.This is sector-rotation workflow that used to live on a terminal, sitting free inside a retail app. Before you chase AAPL or any single supplier this week, open moomoo Industry Chain and read the chain, not the headline.

META 599.16, target 577 (-3.865%), and the moomoo Options Strategy screen is laying out a Long 602.5P with Profit 1,716.60 if it works, Max Loss -832.50 if it doesn't, breakeven 594.175, PoP 37.88%. That 37.88% is the part the casuals miss — you're paying for a 1-day window between FOMC and a 3-day Juneteenth weekend, and theta is going to eat this thing alive if META just sits at 599. That's exactly why I love that moomoo's Greeks roll-up is right inline — Net Delta, Theta burn, Vega, all visualized for the COMBINED position, not leg by leg. The payoff diagram makes the asymmetry obvious: tiny green zone past 594, fat red zone above. IV is pumped pre-FOMC, so honestly the Short Call 590C alternative on the same screen (Return on Collateral 8.15%, PoP 57.60%) is the smarter vol-crush play. One tap and moomoo flips templates for you. Pre-built strategies, live payoff, combo execution — all inside the options chain. If you're trading META through FOMC, run it through moomoo Options Strategy first or you're flying blind.