Discussion: If immigration drops but housing stays expensive, what will politicians focus on next?
A lot of the debate around housing and the cost of living focuses on migration. The common argument is that lowering migration numbers will fix the housing market.
At the same time, Australia has an ageing population. Government programs support retirees staying in their family homes as they age. On top of that, state stamp duty makes moving expensive, and keeping the family home exempt from the pension asset test means staying put makes the most financial sense.
If migration drops over the coming years but housing stays expensive and hard to find, where does the political debate go next? Which policies will politicians and the public target?
- Tax Changes: (e.g., tweaking stamp duty, negative gearing, capital gains tax discounts, or including the family home in the pension asset test)
- Building and Zoning: (e.g., forcing councils to approve more homes, easing zoning rules, or building more medium-density housing)
- Market Rules: (e.g., tougher rules for landlords, limits on Airbnb/short-term rentals, or more incentives for build-to-rent projects)
- Intergenerational Equity: (e.g., tackling the growing wealth gap between young renters and older homeowners)
When migration is no longer the main talking point, what do you think becomes the main focus of parliamentary debate?