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While Blue Sky Studios' closure has been a big factor into the dormant status of the Rio franchise and the development hell of Rio 3 and Rio's Nico and Pedro there is another factor at play. Carlos Saldana the creator has made clear he wants to make more Rio movies. However, after Rio 2 he was an executive producer for Ice Age 5 and the director and writer of Ferdinand. We've known Rio 3 has been in development at Disney since 2022 and Carlos Saldana has revealed in interviews that he and Disney are eager to continue the franchise he's been busy with Harold and the Purple Crayon and 100 Dais. If Carlos Saldana wasn't working on Ferdinand could we have gotten Rio 3 back in 2018/19?

An untitled third Rio film has been in development since 2021. However back in 2019 they said they'd make a spinoff of Nico and Pedro on Disney+. Considering Buck Wild was released on Disney+ so it was under the Disney banner instead of the Fox and there are numerous untitled Disney animated films in development or production. The chances one is Rio's Nico and Pedro is fairly high.

Spinoffs often come out not too far apart from the main films. Minions came out 2 years after Despicable Me 2 and Puss in Boots a year after the last Shrek. Same with the Penquins of Madagascar.

It would be smart to release both back or back. The spinoff would certainly be monumentally successful on Disney+ considering how universally loved these movies are on streaming. It would also be safer than the box office.

What are the chances we get the threequel and the spinoff a year apart?

I remember when I first saw Rio when it first came out and I immediately wanted a sequel because it ended with the perfect setup for one; Nigel survived and Blu and Jewel have chicks. While the sequel may not have been the best it was still necessary. While finding more of their kind didn't defeat the purpose of the first movie, it actually truly saved their species, because their numbers are accurate to their real live numbers, Blu and Jewel's chicks are saved from committing invest, more importantly it makes Blu and Jewel's love even stronger. They were brought together because they were believed to be the only ones, with the discovery they weren't it actually is the ultimate test of their love because it proves they're together because they wanted to be not because they had to be. It also proves no matter how many potential mates there are, they're the only ones they'd ever wanna be with. Rio 3 is frankly also a necessary sequel to improve the mistakes from the last one, give us more closure and to show more of these characters