u/Orange_Wine

Dialectal varieties of the Catalan language in Spain. Catalan, called Valencian in Valencia (it is used as a political issue) currently has at least 10 million speakers. It is taught in Catalonia, Valencia, the Balearic Islands, parts of Aragon and in French Roussillon. It is also spoken in Alghero, an Italian city, although increasingly in a residual way.

I don't know the author of the map. Based on the dialectal division of Manel Milà i Fontanals (1861)

https://www.enciclopedia.cat/gran-enciclopedia-catalana/catala

Primarily concentrated in some key regions, not fully aligned with Spain's population density

Hi everyone, first time poster and fellow map aficionado here.

Here is my small research on potential future scenarios of states forming on the post-russia territories after the coming political, economic, and social crises in russia.

First of all, a little foreword:

Generally speaking, apart from very few regions, unlike the break-up after the fall of the USSR I do not see a high potential of many *nationalist-*style break-aways. Few regions do have that potential, and I have indicated them below. For the most part, I see regions striving for independence based on their geographical location and, most of all, their economic potential. The regional governors and elites will eventually face enormous pressure from the population, and given the fact that moscow has been taking most of the resources and not giving much in return, they will come to a question of whether it is safer for them (regional governing elites) to stay a part of russia or declare sovereignty.

I will go one by one, giving some basic statistics and leaving my commentary about each state. Once again, it is all pure speculation; I am not a scientist, and I don't pretend to know a lot about every single region. So take everything I write here with a grain of salt.

I will start from the West.

First state on the map is:

• Kaliningrad.

Population: 1 million (between Estonia and Luxembourg)

Territory: 15,025 km^(2) (similar to Slovenia or Montenegro)

Largest city: Kaliningrad (489k; same as Gdańsk in Poland, which is kinda funny, both of them being ex-Prussian towns)

Imo, Kaliningrad has the highest potential to proclaim its independence from Moscow. It is an exclave fully surrounded by the EU countries with heavy cross-border ties; the population has a much higher western/EU kind of mindset and lifestyle; people from there travel very often to the EU, and many even possess permanent Schengen visas and see themselves as basically European.
I see it becoming some kind of EU-protected autonomy with a humanitarian corridor at first, and eventually obtaining de facto independence and heavy EU economic integration later. It has a strategic location between Lithuania and Poland and therefore has some economic potential in linking up northern Poland with Baltic states via road and rail-road connection.

 

• Ingria.

The name I chose is a historical name for a region close to Saint-Petersburg; some of the people have used it in protests against war and moscow's dictatorship. Imo it sounds kinda cool, so that's why I chose it.

Population: almost 10 million (similar to Sweden, Portugal, Greece, Czechia or Hungary)

Territory: 520,633 km^(2) (somewhere between France and Spain)

Largest city and capital: Saint-Petersburg - 5.6 million (more than half of the total state population, biggest city in Europe after Moscow and London)

Biggest cities: Murmansk (264k), Petrozavodsk (234k), Veliky Novgorod (223k), Pskov (185k).

Subdivisions: Saint-Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast, Pskov Oblast, Novgorod oblast, Republic of Karelia, Murmansk Oblast.

Generally, Saint-Petersburg's people are considered to be quite different, more cultured, educated, and more western-oriented than those in the rest of russia. The city has always been russia's "window into Europe" since its very beginning, which is why I do see a high potential of it becoming its own separate country, theoretically becoming closer with Finland/Scandinavia. Also, same as in Kaliningrad, many people from Saint-Petersburg have Schengen visas and are used to traveling to the EU. The city has seen repeated anti-war/mobilization protests and has stronger civic networks than many regions.

I see a potential for Arkhangelsk oblast (one to the east) becoming a part of Ingria as well, which would add significant territory as well as big Arkhangelsk port benefits.

 

Now, when it comes to the central European part of russia, somehow I find it more difficult to speculate on any regions forming their own state.

I see most of the regions kind of sticking with moscow, being very close geographically, and strongly connected to the center economically and infrastructure-wise. That's why it's harder for me to imagine regions closest to moscow forming their own identity and their own statehood.

Same goes for southern russia and the Caucasus region. Especially the Caucasus. It is an absolute cluster-f*ck of different nations and ethnicities, so, honestly, I see the highest potential there for civil unrest, gang violence / paramilitary conflicts with local warlords trying to establish full kadyrov-style control over regions. But also, I don't know much about that region, so if you do know more about it, and see economical/social potential of any of those regions to form a state - feel free to comment and I could update the map.

 

• Moscovia.

Population: 41.43 million, which actually pretty much equals Ukraine's pre-war population of 41 million (currently Ukraine officially has a population of 28 million in Ukraine-controlled areas).

Territory: 794,732 km^(2) (similar to Turkey 783,562 km^(2))

Largest city and capital: Moscow (13.27 million, largest city in Europe)

Biggest cities: Voronezh (1 million), Yaroslavl' (564k), Ryazan' (519k), Tula (457k).

Subdivisions: Vologda Oblast, Kostroma Oblast, Tver Oblast, Yaroslavl' Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, Ryazan' Oblast, Tula Oblast, Ivanovo Oblast, Vladimir Oblast, Smolensk Oblast, Moscow Oblast, Kaluga Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Oryol Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Tambov Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast.

It is historically very centralised, very structured around Moscow. Otherwise I can't really say much in terms of economics, so I'll just quote Wikipedia here:

This flat, rolling country, with Moscow as its center, forms a major industrial region. Besides Moscow, major cities include Smolensk, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Tula, Dzerzhinsky, and Rybinsk. Trucks, ships, railway rolling stock, machine tools, electronic equipment, cotton and woolen textiles, and chemicals are the principal industrial products. The Volga and Oka Rivers are the major water routes, and the Moscow–Volga and Don–Volga canals link Moscow with the Caspian and Baltic Seas. Many rail lines serve the area.

Just to add that, given the assumed separation of Volga, South, Ingria, and the North, Moscovia will absolutely struggle industrially/economically/socially.

 

• South

Population: 13.42 million (comparable to Belgium 11.7 million)

Territory: 250,404 km^(2) (similar to Romania or UK)

Biggest cities: Krasnodar (1.15 million), Rostov-on-Don (1.14 million), Stavropol (563k), Sochi (445k)

Subdivisions: Rostov oblast, Stavropol Krai, Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Adygea

Theoretically, the South has a very high agricultural potential as well as industrial potential. It has a good climate, it's quite populated and has some industry (well, whatever will be left of it by the end of the war...). It does seem to have the potential to become its own state. Culturally, southern parts have always been a bit more different, similar to Ukraine. Parts of it (see Raspberry Ukraine) even used to be a part of Ukraine in the past (lol @ putin's historians); however, due to russification, and Holodomor, the Ukrainian population there practically disappeared in the 1920s-1930s. So nowadays I really don't see it becoming a part of Ukraine or Ukraine wanting to do anything with it.

Typically, the Republic of Kalmykia and Astrakhan oblast are included in what's considered russian South; however, I tend to think that they would have closer ties to Volga. Astrakhan is located at the Volga River mouth; therefore, it would be beneficial to Volga's exports and imports. And Kalmykia might be interested in joining Volga due to a higher percentage of national minorities. However, it is all speculation.

• Volga

Population: 19.32 million (similar to Romania's 18.9 million or the Netherlands' 18.3 million)

Territory: 855,332 km^(2) (same as France and Poland combined)

Largest city: Nizhny Novgorod (1.19 million)

Biggest cities: Samara (1.15 million), Perm' (1 million), Volgograd (1 million), Saratov (886k), Togliatti (663k)

Subdivisions: Perm Krai, Kirov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Republic of Mordovia, Penza Oblast, Ulyanovsk Oblast, Samara Oblast, Volgograd Oblast, Astrakhan Oblast, Republic of Kalmykia

So here my main thinking is - Volga River. It is a damn big river, and an important point of geographical, social, and economic cohesion. And as far as I know, historically there has been a lot of cultural similarity, a lot of trade. The region has a very high population; most of russia's large cities are located in the region, and a lot of natural resources and a lot of industry as well as agriculture. So I see a potential for the Volga region forming its own state. Given the prospect of Astrakhan oblast joining it would have a connection to the Caspian Sea for its imports and exports.

 

• Idel

Population: 13.25 million (a little more than Belgium's 11.7 million)

Territory: 418,275 km^(2) (similar to Sweden 438,574 km^(2))

Largest city: Kazan' (1.33 million)

Biggest cities: Ufa (1.16 million), Izhevsk (616k), Naberezhnye Chelny (548k), Orenburg (537k)

Subdivisions: Chuvash Republic, Mari El Republic, Republic of Tatarstan, Udmurt Republic, Republic of Bashkortostan, Orenburg Oblast.

Idel is a neighbouring interesting region in the basin of the Volga River and next to the Ural Mountains. It has the largest percentage of national minorities (ethnic russians being around 40% in some parts, like Tatarstan, for example). The region also has big economic and social potential. Which is why I do see it trying to go alone, because of cultural similarities among it's minorities. Were that to happen, however, it would desperately need some kind of territorial connection to either the Caspian Sea or Kazakhstan for its exports/imports. So that's why Orenburg oblast (southernmost subdivision, bordering Kazakhstan) could potentially benefit from joining Idel.

A very obvious and interesting aspect of this state would be its diverse ethnic composition:

• russians - 5,95 million (45% of total population)
• Tatars - 3,18 million (24% of total population)
• Bashkirs - 1,31 million (10% of total population
• Chuvashs - 1,15 million (8,6% of total population)
• Mari - 354k (2,6%)
• Udmurts - 337k (2,5%)
• Kazakhs - 120k (0,9%)

So, as one can see, although they would still make up the majority, russians would not make up even half of the total population, which would definitely create an interesting dynamic.

 

However, generally speaking, I see both Volga and Idel rather forming a larger and more populous Volga-Idel state with the capital in Kazan'.

 

• Volga-Idel

Population: 32.58 million (similar to Ukraine, or Poland)

Territory: 1,273,607 km^(2) (which is bigger than that of France, Germany & Poland combined)

Largest city and capital: Kazan' (1.33 million)

Biggest cities: Nizhny Novgorod (1.19 million), Ufa (1.16 million), Samara (1.15 million), Perm' (1 million), Volgograd (1 million)

Subdivisions: Perm Krai, Kirov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Republic of Mordovia, Penza Oblast, Ulyanovsk Oblast, Samara Oblast, Volgograd Oblast, Astrakhan Oblast, Republic of Kalmykia, Chuvash Republic, Mari El Republic, Republic of Tatarstan, Udmurt Republic, Republic of Bashkortostan, Orenburg Oblast.

Here, in my opinion, there is the highest probability for durable, negotiated autonomy or a confederation. Strong industrial base, oil & petrochemical companies (Tatneft etc.), the legacy of 1990s power-sharing treaties (Tatarstan negotiated a special status until that model was rolled back after 2017), and sizable non-Russian nationalities with organized elites. If Moscow collapses, this cluster is the best candidate for forming a functional new polity (confederal, federal-like) because it combines cities, factories, agricultural hinterlands and transport.

A distinctive feature of the region is its significant manufacturing potential. It currently accounts for a quarter of russia's total industrial output, 85% of the Russian automotive industry, 65% of aircraft manufacturing, 40% of petrochemicals, 30% of shipbuilding, and 30% of defense industry production.

Combined Volga-Idel state has a much higher potential, and a much larger population and even larger territory, and can become a very strong rival and contender to Moscovia as a new dominant powerhouse among all post-russia states. It would definitely be interesting to watch the dynamics between these two.
The state would be almost similar to the current Volga Federal District with only additional inclusion of Astrakhan oblast and the Republic of Kalmykia.

The state would still have a very large portion of ethnic minorities, but the percentage of russian majority would be significantly higher, closer to around 65-70%, compared to Idel's 45%.

 

 

• North

Population: 2.76 million (similar to Lithuania 2.83 million or Albania 2.77 million)

Territory: 1,183,497 km^(2) (same as France, Poland and Finland combined)

Largest city and capital: Arkhangelsk (299k)

Biggest cities: Syktyvkar (219k), Severodvinsk (156k)

So, as one can clearly see, just how sparsely this territory is populated. Despite its massive territory, and due to a very low population, harsh climate, and absence of large cities with industrial and R&D potential, I find it hard (not impossible) to see North going it alone. Perhaps Arkhangelsk (north-western bit) might be closer economically/socially/geographically to Ingria, whereas Komi Republic and Nenets Autonomous Okrug would prefer to join a Volga-Idel state. It's all, of course, still speculation.

 

• Ural

Population: 8.45 million (similar to Belarus or Switzerland)

Territory: 354,323 km^(2) (similar to Germany 357,581 km^(2))

Largest city and capital: Yekaterinburg (1.54 million)

Biggest cities: Chelyabinsk (1.17 million), Magnitogorsk (408k), Nizhny Tagil (328k), Kurgan (301k)

Subdivisions: Sverdlovsk Oblast, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Kurgan Oblast

Ural region is situated next to the Ural Mountains; it is quite small. Well, relatively speaking, since we're talking russian dimensions here. However, it does have a strong industrial and economic potential, natural resources as well as a strategic location between Volga-Idel and Siberia.

 

• Siberia.

Population: 17.67 million (less than the Netherlands 18.3 million)

Territory: 4,789,547 km^(2) (if formed, it would become the world's sixth-largest state after Australia and by far the largest post-russian state)

Largest city and capital: Novosibirsk (1.63 million, third biggest russian city)

Biggest cities: Krasnoyarsk (1.21 million), Omsk (1.1 million), Tyumen (872k), Barnaul (622k), Tomsk (545k)

Subdivisions: Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Tyumen Oblast, Omsk Oblast, Novosibirsk Oblast, Tomsk Oblast, Kemerovo Oblast, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Republic of Khakassia

There have in fact been several attempts in history to form a Siberian nation, but all of them have unfortunately been unsuccessful. I myself am a Siberian, grew up near Tomsk city, where I have studied and lived until I was 22. In my personal experience, it is true that many Siberians have formed a diverse cultural identity and consider themselves first Siberians and then russians. Many of them feel closer culturally to the neighbouring Siberian regions and have very little sympathy for central russia or moscow. The region has absolutely humongous economic potential. The biggest problem has always been the hyper-control and exploitation from Moscow. Much of the region's wealth ends up in the pockets of corrupted muscovites, and the region and its people stay poor. So I personally see a lot of potential for forming a separate Siberian state with the capital in Novosibirsk.

The state would have a huge resource base (oil, gas, coal, timber), large extraction companies, and regional elites resentful of Moscow’s revenue capture. The Yamal-Nenets area alone dominates Russia’s gas resources (Yamal fields are critical). Control over energy production and export routes gives Siberian elites leverage — but population density is low, and governance capacity (service delivery, labor, capital) would be a major constraint.

The only subdivision which is traditionally considered "Siberian" that I see being a tiny bit different from the rest of Siberia is Irkutsk oblast. It has a larger geographical, economic, and cultural connection to Lake Baikal and its neighbouring regions of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai. Which is why I see all three of them potentially forming a Baikal state. In all three regions, most of the population density is concentrated around the lake and along the Trans-Siberian Railway.

 

• Baikal

Population: 4.34 million (comparable to Mongolia's 3.54 million)

Territory: 1,558,072 km^(2) (again, practically equal to that of Mongolia, 1,564,116 km^(2)****)

Largest city and capital: Irkutsk (616k)

Biggest cities: Ulan-Ude (435k), Chita (337k), Bratsk (219k), Angarsk (217k)

Subdivisions: Irkutsk Oblast, Republic of Buryatia, Zabaykalsky Krai

Baikal would be a very interesting and incredibly beautiful region. With Lake Baikal at its heart and a strategic location in the center between Siberia, Yakutia, Mongolia, China, and the Far East, it has amazing potential.

Although, in all honesty, I do see it struggling economically and socially. Currently, it is one of the, if not the poorest part of russia, which was historically completely ignored and exploited by moscow which recently resulted in a percentage of its male population desperately joining the fascist russian army due to their desperate financial situation and huge lack of jobs and opportunities.

Baikal would also have an interesting ethnic spectrum, having a small percentage of Buryat Mongols. The total population of ethnic Buryats would be 438k, making them 10% of the total Baikal state population and up to 30-35% in the Buryatia subdivision. Which is also why the comparison to Mongolia is interesting here. It would definitely be interesting to watch the national dynamics between the newly formed Baikal state and Mongolia, where up to 46k of Buryats currently live.

 

And now we finally get to a couple of possible tiny states for which I see a small potential of becoming independent: Altai and Tyva.

• Altai

Population: 210k

Territory: 92,903 km^(2) (similar to Hungary or Portugal)

Largest city and capital: Gorno-Altaysk (53k)

I guess the main reason I see potential for Altai is its recent largest protests in the past 20 years against the moscow's imposed authoritarian policies, which incredible display of civic courage in modern-day russia. It shows me that this tiny republic still has not forgotten what democracy is all about.

Its main struggles are its incredibly low population, its economy, and infrastructure. However, it does possess a unique advantage: its strategic location between Siberia and China, which Altai could definitely use to its advantage. It will have to face a national question, having a two thirds russians vs one third ethnic Altai people split. If it invests in infrastructure, it has a very good tourism potential.

 

• Tyva or Tuva

Population: 336k (comparable to Iceland 398k)

Territory: 168,604 km^(2) (similar to Greece 131,957 km^(2))

Largest city and capital: Kyzyl (132k)

The main reason I see Tyva striving for its independence is its ethnically different from the rest of neighboring regions, and ethnic Tuvans make up the majority (89%) of the population, with around 10% of ethnic russians.

Tyva would definitely face very similar struggles as Altai, if not worse (low population, absence of infrastructure), without having the advantage of strategic location bordering China. It is the poorest region (in 2017, 41% of the population lived below the poverty line) and is currently heavily subsidised. It would be interesting to see how things might change when Tuvans get the power over their land into their own hands.

 

• Sakha (Yakutia)

Population: 1 million (one of the least populated areas in the world)

Territory: 3,083,523 km^(2) (if formed, Sakha would become the 8th largest country in the World, after India)

Largest city and capital: Yakutsk (373k)

So, as one can clearly see, Sakha is one of the least populated areas in the world, which is why it will definitely struggle economically and socially.

It does possess enormous natural resources (gas, diamonds, coal, gold). The biggest russian strategic gas pipeline to China ("Power of Siberia") goes from the south of Sakha. Large diamond and mineral production (ALROSA is a world leader). Recent sanctions, however, have had a massive impact and the russian state’s partial backstop purchases impacted the regional budget significantly. All the more reason for independence.

Despite all those massive resources and due to moscow's massive exploitation, it remains one of the poorest and most neglected regions. Russians were promising for over 50 (!) years to build a bridge in regional capital Yakutsk (which would connect Russian road network to Yakutsk, as well as the entirety of russian Far East to the ports of the Sea of Okhotsk) and it still hasn't been built (supposedly construction started in october 2024, however given the current state of russian economy, you can imagine the priority of this project for moscow..).

Ethnically native Sakha people make up 55% of the population in the republic, and institutional identity is strong in the republic.

So yeah, there is an absolutely enormous potential for this state that comes with enormous challenges.

 

• Far East

Population: 4.52 million (between Ireland 5.3 million and Croatia 3.8 million)

Territory: 2,998,705 km^(2) (if formed, it would become the 9th biggest country in the world, just behind India and Sakha)

Largest city and capital: Khabarovsk (616k)

Biggest cities: Vladivostok (594k), Blagoveshchensk (239k), Komsomolsk-on-Amur (233k), Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (163k)

Subdivisions: Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Magadan Oblast, Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast, Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Primorsky Krai, Kamchatka Krai

Again - absolutely mind-boggling how huge all these territories are. But same as Siberia, Baikal, Sakha, all these territories absolutely lack proper management, lack human resources and infrastructure for their development. The state possesses enormous fishing and forestry resources. I see parts of it falling under a strong Chinese influence, which may even try to claim back its historical territories, which used to belong to China in the 19th century during the late Qing dynasty (see Outer Manchuria for historical context). On 14 February 2023, the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China relabelled eight cities and areas inside Russia in the region with Chinese names. In a chaotic russian collapse, China’s options range from commercial domination to real territorial pressure in fractured zones, but annexation would be massively escalatory and diplomatically/strategically costly.

• Northern Territories:

Population: 466k

Territory: 87,101 km^(2) (almost the same as Hokkaido island 83,423 km^(2))

Largest city and capital: Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (182k)

Kuril Islands, as well as the southern part of Sakhalin Island, used to belong to Japan after the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, and only 40 years later, after the end of 2nd world war, became part of the USSR. (See Northern Territories Dispute).

Japan has repeatedly reasserted claims, and the islands have valuable fisheries and (undersea) hydrocarbon resources. If Russian control collapses, Japan, given that it still currently does not have a peace agreement with Russia, will pressure for a negotiated settlement, but any attempt to seize territory would cause a severe security crisis and is therefore less probable.

Yet, in my opinion, Japan's economy as well as its enormous population might definitely benefit from new territories and resources, and the Sakhalin people would benefit from new investment and infrastructure. And if it all goes well, who's to say that Kamchatka Krai might not want to become a part of Japan?

_________

So, here we are. It is all possible scenarios, and in no way would I call any of that a prediction.

So, we'll live and see, as they say in russia...

PS: A bit about my background (not that it really matters): I was born and have grown up in Tomsk, Siberia, and have always identified as Siberian first and foremost, rather than russian. Ethnically, I've got Ukrainian, Tatar, russian, and Belarusian-Jewish roots. My surname is Ukrainian, and I have family in Ukrainian Donbas and Kharkiv as well as in russia.

Since 2007, I have lived in seven different countries and learnt eight foreign languages. And I have learnt to identify with every single nation where I lived and language I speak.

 

Source: https://bsky.app/profile/eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu/post/3mmi6ori4dc2e