u/Always_Curious_One2

Really worth reading. Top students seeing their test scores, cognition, and social skills collapse :

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/google-ai-gemini-education-schools-1ec0972a?wsj\_native\_webview=android&ace\_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D&ace\_environment=androidphone%2Cwebview&article\_is\_saved=n

Borrowing against their substantial assets (stakes in private businesses, real estate, stocks, etc) and then deducting the interest cost to reduce any income they have …

There should be a limit. Billionaires shouldn’t get away with not paying at all.

Yes I know that Congress’s spending is the problem (tax receipts have Never been higher yet we have trillions of New debts added to the pile every year). And cutting spending should be job #1 - but cutting generous loopholes in the tax code can help too.

All countries need to convince the large carbon emitters to change - coal burning for electric power and industrial processes, traditional heavy chemical agriculture, air conditioning chemicals that can be replaced with newer far less toxic ones, and heating and cooling systems for offices that are highly inefficient can be modernized. Yes shifting from gas cars to EVs too.

But since all the above will move Slowly — What new technology or materials are in development that can be major carbon (and methane) sinks ?

Thank you !

Take a look at the cash flows. Physical world ID is rising in value and they have very well placed assets.

What a machine. Clearly taking share and generating just huge cash flows. Conf call just beginning but the numbers speak loudly. Gross margin dollars up 78%. While Opex up only 22%. EBIT +160%
Guides billions ahead of street estimates. Running a base case DCF with a 10% hurdle rate shows material equity value creation ahead.

What a machine. Clearly taking share and generating just huge cash flows. Conf call just beginning but the numbers speak loudly. Gross margin dollars up 78%. While Opex up only 22%. EBIT +160%
Guides billions ahead of street estimates.

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Most major ad channels have a public transparency layer: Meta has the Ad
Library. Google has its Ads Transparency Center. TikTok has the Creative
Center. ChatGPT, AI Mode, and AI Overview, however, have none of that – not
for competitors, and often not even for the advertiser's own team.

Adding AI Ads to Similarweb’s Ad Intelligence fills that gap with an Ads
Gallery that shows what ads are running and in what context.

For AI Mode & AI Overview, advertisers participating in Google’s broader
digital advertising programs are blind to ad placements in Google AI answers.
Most advertisers don't know whether their own ads are running in that context,
let alone how they stack up against competitors. Google’s visibility tools
don’t answer that question.

For ChatGPT, ads only show up when intent exists and is clarified from the
conversation, and the decision comes down to the combination of ad creative,
copy, and landing page. Rather than leaving advertisers to guess where their
ads are appearing, Similarweb’s AI Ads provides a direct look at what's
winning placement.

What makes Similarweb's approach unique is that these insights are drawn from
real user panel conversations, not synthetic prompts. We anticipate upcoming
releases of the AI Ads dataset will add advertisers' true share of voice, ad
categories, and conversational intent.

“When we started advertising on ChatGPT, we were flying blind, no visibility
into who else was in the auction or what was working,” says Jonathan Bar
Vardi, Head of Strategy at Natural Intelligence, a data-driven marketing
specialist that has become a top buyer of ChatGPT ads. “Similarweb changed
that. It shows what other advertisers don't know: who's spending, where
they're appearing, and what's driving performance.”

Most major ad channels have a public transparency layer: Meta has the Ad
Library. Google has its Ads Transparency Center. TikTok has the Creative
Center. ChatGPT, AI Mode, and AI Overview, however, have none of that – not
for competitors, and often not even for the advertiser's own team.

Adding AI Ads to Similarweb’s Ad Intelligence fills that gap with an Ads
Gallery that shows what ads are running and in what context.

For AI Mode & AI Overview, advertisers participating in Google’s broader
digital advertising programs are blind to ad placements in Google AI answers.
Most advertisers don't know whether their own ads are running in that context,
let alone how they stack up against competitors. Google’s visibility tools
don’t answer that question.

For ChatGPT, ads only show up when intent exists and is clarified from the
conversation, and the decision comes down to the combination of ad creative,
copy, and landing page. Rather than leaving advertisers to guess where their
ads are appearing, Similarweb’s AI Ads provides a direct look at what's
winning placement.

What makes Similarweb's approach unique is that these insights are drawn from
real user panel conversations, not synthetic prompts. We anticipate upcoming
releases of the AI Ads dataset will add advertisers' true share of voice, ad
categories, and conversational intent.

“When we started advertising on ChatGPT, we were flying blind, no visibility
into who else was in the auction or what was working,” says Jonathan Bar
Vardi, Head of Strategy at Natural Intelligence, a data-driven marketing
specialist that has become a top buyer of ChatGPT ads. “Similarweb changed
that. It shows what other advertisers don't know: who's spending, where
they're appearing, and what's driving performance.”

RPO up 26% to $345mm as they signed multiple large long term data contracts, over 2/3 of contracts are now multi year, operating margins Tripled to 8% showing the enterprise sales motion is efficient, and they point out that the new AI deals are for enterprises using their data for analytics that models and apps can process far faster than humans.
This is very positive as it’s not just training models. Enterprise analytics using AI are very early.
IMO it’s realistic to see a double digit top line cagr with EBIT margins rising to 20% in a five year horizon - high 20s following.

This delivers over $1 per share of Cash EPS by 2030 perhaps much more if agentic use cases really take off.

20 multiple seems to be a minimum

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Net new customers signing up her 50% in Q2 and they grew their pipeline of new clients 50% as well 

Physical ID is needed more than ever and this goes far beyond airports.

With “north of $480mm free cash this year”
, many markets to go after, and the rise of agentic identity needs - the current $9.1 billion market cap is compelling

It’s always been the case that some users just need a quick headline answer and don’t need to read deeper discussions. Some queries are simple requests for info, fine. But logged in users are growing, especially globally. Logged in is about half of total and rising. The reason is the Reddit experience keeps improving and when users are planning a large spend or seeking information on a serious issue, humans need to speak with other humans that have experience.

That said Even if the mix of logged out vs logged in stays the same, a reasonable case of revenue growth will be at least 30% for the long term based on global DAU growth and rising monetization. And with 90% gross margins the drop down to operating income is very high. Leverage of opex means operating income will grow far faster than revenues.
And they are capital light so the flow through to free cash is also very high.

Building a very reasonable case free cash flow model (fading the 30s revenue growth to low doubles, and remember they are growing 61% now) and using an 11% cost of equity delivers an NPV of $245

This is likely too conservative versus reality - but fine to be conservative and show meaningful upside.

Where could I be wrong ? If more users don’t care about details and just accept a quick summary. But if you are buying a car or planning a vacation or have a family health care issue - would you just accept the simple summary that comes up in Search ? It’s a big world and reasonably many more users need deeper context.

I know I didn’t address the licensing negotiations. Licensing is now about 11% of profit and that could go up. My focus is the quality of the content expanding globally and monetization strategies really just getting started. RDDT is auto translating discussions between languages for example to make useful content even more useful.

If you don’t believe that human knowledge will remain valuable - then why are you reading this ?!

This article is important to read. Not reporting users seeking data on how to make these weapons and in fact downplaying risks in pursuit of money needs to be highlighted for all and addressed :

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-chatbot-biological-weapons-poison-3d808e6c?st=35Hq56

This article is important to read. Not reporting users seeking data on how to make these weapons and in fact downplaying risks in pursuit of money needs to be highlighted for all and addressed :

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-chatbot-biological-weapons-poison-3d808e6c?st=35Hq56

This article is important to read. Not reporting users seeking data on how to make these weapons and in fact downplaying risks in pursuit of money needs to be highlighted for all and addressed :

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-chatbot-biological-weapons-poison-3d808e6c?st=35Hq56

Check out KNSL - earning 24% roe on the business they write. And comps are getting easier in the second half.
They have a superior underwriting model with built from the ground up custom systems and analytics - and they perform all their work in house. Competitors have inferior legacy systems and outsource many key underwriting decision (leading to losses down the road).
KNSL has less than 2% market share - and will keep taking share for many years.
KNSL sees enormous value in its own stock trading at only 15X - And they are buying back 5% of the company.

Check out KNSL - earning 24% roe on the business they write. And comps are getting easier in the second half.
They have a superior underwriting model with built from the ground up custom systems and analytics - and they perform all their work in house. Competitors have inferior legacy systems and outsource many key underwriting decision (leading to losses down the road).
KNSL has less than 2% market share - and will keep taking share for many years.
KNSL sees enormous value in its own stock trading at only 15X - And they are buying back 5% of the company.