u/SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

The speculators buying these mountains of call options aren't just betting on Nvidia stock, they're forcing the gears of a mechanism that can literally dictate the Nasdaq's direction for weeks to come. Tension is at its peak, the derivatives market (options, which are supposed to be derived from the stock price) is becoming so massive that it ends up dictating the price of the underlying stock. Since the US markets close at 4:00 PM, these traders have all the time in the world to liquidate their positions just before the closing bell: Play the "Run-up," avoid Russian roulette, escape the volatility crash. Anything is possible. It's Las Vegas tonight. They can keep all the positions.

Screenshot Finviz

Good news could come with a few pieces of bad news and weak guidance, and the whole house of cards could be shaking and about to collapse.

I wonder if we shouldn't just cash in before earnings tonight and then come back in, even if it means losing 10% if there's a sudden surge. However, this will prevent a 25% loss if there's a panic in the opposite direction. Since we're already at the peak, these are just gains converted into cash, a time for reflection, a pause, a sort of temporary safety net.

Screenshot Financial Times, 20 May 26.

$PATH, No one is paying attention to this automation player that's turning to AI for large clients needing maximum security, but beware, the short sellers might be playing with fire. While AI infrastructure stocks are taking a hit this week, UiPath is in the green. Perhaps it's a sign. Stay focus. Debt level is near 1%...

chartexchange 19 May 2026

5/18/2026 6:04am (MT Newswires) -- Microsoft (MSFT) founder Bill Gates' charitable trust has sold its remaining stake in the company, according to a Friday SEC filing.

Former Microsoft VP says Microsoft missed the AI ​​wave like the internet and mobile, as Copilot scales back in Windows 11. elloso remarked that despite making Bing the company’s biggest AI bet, it failed to capture a single percentage point of search market share from Google. More damning is the state of Copilot.

According to Velloso, less than 3% of paying users actively use Copilot.

https://www.windowslatest.com/2026/05/17/former-microsoft-vp-says-microsoft-missed-the-ai-wave-like-the-internet-and-mobile-as-copilot-scales-back-in-windows-11/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

There has been very, very little trading or activity in the put options for $FIX Comfort Systems USA Inc, even though it’s a company, like $STRL and a whole group of data center builders, that’s highly likely to plummet given Nvidia’s weak guidance, the decline already underway at SanDisk, and the heavily indebted, junk-bond-baggy CoreWeaver. I get the impression this stock has been completely forgotten...

So quiet, scary. I am new in playing with PUTS.

While the $900 and $1000 strikes saw heavy trading, the day's real "hotspot" was even lower: the $800 strike. A colossal volume of 5,849 contracts traded at this level, compared to an initial open interest of only 625. The value of this put option surged by 80%. This was the most actively traded level on the entire sheet, reflecting a rush for deep out-of-the-money (DOM) options.

In theory, when a stock rises, put options lose value. However, here, the opposite was true: almost all puts between the $790 and $965 strikes saw spectacular price increases (ranging from 50% to 140%).

China's government issued in January this year a "deliberately vague" directive telling some technology firms to buy Nvidia chips only when "necessary". In May, the demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips was surgging following the release of DeepSeek's V4 artificial intelligence model that runs on the Shenzhen-based tech firm's chips, with major Chinese internet firms rushing to secure orders. Huawei expects to ship about 750,000 Ascend 950PR chips in 2026. It also appears that Huali Microelectronics, is readying a 7-nanometer (nm) chipmaking process at its plant in Shanghai, the ‌people said, which would make it the second Chinese chipmaker with such advanced technologies. Hua Hong is China's second-largest chipmaker.

In a small but meaningful break from American technology, DeepSeek said for the first time that its new model had been optimized to run on chips made by Chinese tech giant Huawei. This was a milestone in China’s long-running effort to develop advanced technologies at home and reduce its reliance on Western innovation. The question therefore seriously arises concerning Nvidia which is losing enormous ground in China and is facing competition that is showing its teeth in the USA.

The AI ​​infrastructure has reached a summit, it's beautiful, magnificent, it's Mount Everest, and today, there's only one thing left to do: sell or dream that you can reach the clouds.

But I have made a list for you:

$SM SM Energy P/B 1 P/E (FWD) 5.5 Mkt 7.5B

$MTDR Matador Res P/B 1.2 P/E (FWD) 9.38 Mkt 7.19B

$CHRD Chord Energy P/B 1 P/E (FWD) 8.18 Mkt 8B

$XOM Exxon Mobil P/B 2.4 P/E (FWD) 13.78 Mkt 633.2B

$OXY

$DVN Devon Energy P/B 1.9 P/E (FWD) 8.13 Mkt 29.36B

I confess, my choice goes to SM Energy for its ultra-rigorous management, low P/B, buyback in place, 100% production on US soil, therefore without maritime transport costs, well-controlled CAPEX, hedge contracts around 50%... and a nice J.P. Morgan buy target at $40

The merger with Civitas muddied the waters, and the Q1 earnings proved there were still expenses to be invested somewhere, but today, the outlook seems to be improving. However, it's still difficult to see clearly. Any thoughts? On Finviz, the P/B ratio is 1. This is very low for the sector, assuming the company is managed correctly and benefits from sales at peak crude prices.

Jensen Huang has been publicly advocating for months a strategy of "controlled growth" for Chinese memory manufacturers (such as CXMT and YMTC) using US technologies, particularly in the context of export restrictions. The United States might tolerate reduced reliance on South Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix) to diversify global suppliers and avoid a risky monopoly. As China pushes for a relaxation of US restrictions on chip equipment, the US could remove CXMT/YMTC from its blacklist.

What impact will this have on AMD in Nvidia?

Is the much-feared crash getting dangerously close, perhaps by the end of May?

The end of the Powell era, if it results in fewer purchases or a slower pace of reinvestment, could reduce the favorable “portfolio effect” for equities. Warsh criticized post-pandemic policies, which he believes have overextended the monetary base and contributed to inflation, and called for a refocusing on the price stability mandate. Warsh advocated for a policy aimed at reducing the Fed’s assets and mentioned the need to work with the Treasury to manage this transition.

Looks serious. It's not often you see movements like that. Are you getting on the train?

I'm looking at $FIX and the puts option chart, and it seems like it's practically dead. So, is it really a good idea to buy there when there's little visibility and few other players? My initial reaction would be no. However, this stock is likely to fall (personal point of view). It was at $450, 52 weeks ago, and today it's at $1972, while its main competitor in the same sector, $STRL, is falling sharply -6.2% today. You know what, I will buy puts of $FIX, just for the test.

Oups !