u/hswerdfe_2

Ternary Plot Showing Change in vote share between 2021 and 2025 election (Liberal / Conservative / Other)

Data: Canadian Election Study

Interpretation :

• Younger Voters (Blue/Darker Lines): Show a strong shift away from "Other" parties, moving primarily downward toward the main establishment options, and a bit left toward liberals
• Middle age voters, light blue and green moved down away from "Other" and split roughly equal between liberal and conservatives.
• Older Voters (Red/Orange Lines): Moved strongly toward Liberals from both conservative and Other

Data: Statistics Canada, Table 35-10-0177 (police-reported crime severity/incidents by CMA). Tools: R, ggplot2 (mixed-effects modeling via lme4/arm).

Police-reported crime data across Canadian census metropolitan areas from 1998–2025, showing which offense categories are trending up or down over time.

Chart 1 : Long-term trend by city (mixed-effects model)
Estimated relative rate of change per CMA, where 0 = no net shift over the period. Red = upward trajectory, blue = downward. This isolates the direction of change in an typical city rather than raw volume.

Chart 2 : Category breakdown over time
Incidents per 100,000 population, faceted by offense category. Grey lines = individual CMAs, solid line/band = national median and interquartile range, dashed line = national average.

• Rising: extortion, online/cyber-related exploitation, fraud, and shoplifting all show marked increases post-2015/2020 across most CMAs.
• Falling: traditional property crimes — breaking & entering, motor vehicle theft, theft under $5,000 — show multi-decade declines since the early 2000s, despite some recent upticks.

A note on interpretation: this is police-reported data, so shifts can reflect actual changes in criminal activity, but also changing legal definitions, new digital reporting channels (e.g., online fraud reporting tools), shifting police enforcement priorities, and changes in public reporting behaviour over time.

Substack post with some more details.

Dependency Ratio in Canada [1851 - 2075]

Data Comes directly from Statscan, I used the R programming language:

• 2007 Lowest total dependency ratio ever
• 2016 when seniors dependency overtook child dependency

Data: Statistics Canada, Table 35-10-0177 (police-reported crime severity/incidents by CMA). Tools: R, ggplot2 (mixed-effects modeling via lme4/arm).

Police-reported crime data across Canadian census metropolitan areas from 1998–2025, showing which offense categories are trending up or down over time.

Chart 1 : Long-term trend by city (mixed-effects model)
Estimated relative rate of change per CMA, where 0 = no net shift over the period. Red = upward trajectory, blue = downward. This isolates the direction of change in an typical city rather than raw volume.

Chart 2 : Category breakdown over time
Incidents per 100,000 population, faceted by offense category. Grey lines = individual CMAs, solid line/band = national median and interquartile range, dashed line = national average.

• Rising: extortion, online/cyber-related exploitation, fraud, and shoplifting all show marked increases post-2015/2020 across most CMAs.
• Falling: traditional property crimes — breaking & entering, motor vehicle theft, theft under $5,000 — show multi-decade declines since the early 2000s, despite some recent upticks.

A note on interpretation: this is police-reported data, so shifts can reflect actual changes in criminal activity, but also changing legal definitions, new digital reporting channels (e.g., online fraud reporting tools), shifting police enforcement priorities, and changes in public reporting behaviour over time.

Statistics Canada recently released the Uniform Crime Reporting Survey. Here is how Edmonton compares:

• Homicides: As the ultimate metric of severe violence, Edmonton's homicide rate has consistently exceeded the national average since 1981, despite a long-term downward trend.
• Crime Rates: Showing specific community safety shifts, most crime categories in Edmonton fell between 2015 and 2025 (including B&Es and auto theft), though petty theft remains exceptionally high.
• Clearance Rates: This measures police effectiveness. While Edmonton matches the average for solving non-violent crimes, it consistently lags behind both Alberta and Canada in clearing violent crimes.

Overall, Edmonton is seeing positive drops in property crime, but severe violence and lower clearance rates remain persistent challenges.

The latest Uniform Crime Reporting Survey reveals key trends for Greater Sudbury:

• Homicides: Indicates extreme violence. Sudbury's rate is historically volatile, ending at 4.05 per 100k in 2025, far above Canada's 1.61.
• Crime Rates: Pinpoints community safety issues. Petty theft (under $5k) surged dramatically, while Mischief is well down.
• Clearance Rates: Measures police solving efficiency. Sudbury's rates are exceptionally strong, clearing 46% of non-violent and 77% of violent crimes in 2025, well above national averages.

Overall, Sudbury faces a prominent rise in petty theft, but its police force resolves crimes at rates far exceeding provincial and national levels.

The newly released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey highlights how Guelph compares to provincial and national trends:

• Homicides: An essential metric of severe violence. Guelph's rate is volatile due to low absolute numbers but remains consistently below the Canadian average (currently 0.62 vs 1.61 per 100k).
• Crime Rates: Tracks incident volume. Guelph's crime rate is generally lower than national levels; while violent violations rose since 2015, property and drug offenses dropped.
• Clearance Rates: Measures police solving-efficiency. Guelph consistently outperforms Ontario and Canada, resolving 61% of violent and 32% of non-violent cases.

Overall, Guelph remains a comparatively safe city with highly effective local law enforcement.

Data from the recently released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey shows critical trends for Halifax:

• Homicides (violence benchmark): Halifax's rate rose to 2.02/100k, exceeding Canada's falling average of 1.61.
• Crime Rates (daily safety): Most crimes track closely to Canada, but thefts under $5k surged heavily in Halifax.
• Clearance Rates (solving efficiency): Halifax consistently lags, solving just 49% of violent and 22% of non-violent crimes.

Insight: Halifax diverges negatively from national trends, with rising severe violence, spiking property theft, and below-average police clearance.

The recently released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey provides an objective look at crime trends in Hamilton:

1. Homicides: A key indicator of severe violence. Hamilton's rate fell 71% since 1981 (to 0.95 per 100k), consistently remaining safer and below Canada's average (1.61).
2. Crime Rates: Shows shifting crime trends. Since 2015, violent crime in Hamilton rose, mirroring Canada's upward trajectory, while non-violent offenses like break-ins fell.
3. Clearance Rates: Measures how effectively police solve crimes. Hamilton's non-violent (25%) and violent (50%) clearance rates consistently trail both provincial and national averages.

Overall: While Hamilton remains safer from extreme violence (homicides) than the national average, rising general violence and lower police clearance rates pose ongoing challenges.

Statistics Canada recently released the Uniform Crime Reporting Survey. Here is how Kamloops compares:

• Homicide Rates (Data 1): As a vital metric for extreme violence, the homicide rate shows Kamloops recently spiked to 3.22 per 100,000—double the Canadian average (1.61).
• Clearance Rates (Data 2): This measures police effectiveness in solving crimes. Kamloops lags significantly below national averages, solving only 31% of violent crimes (vs. Canada's 54%) and 21% of non-violent crimes.

Overview: While severe violent crime has seen volatile surges, the persistent challenge for Kamloops is crime resolution, with local clearance rates remaining well below national and provincial averages.

Statistics Canada recently updated the UCR Survey. Here is how Kingston compares:

• Homicides (Extreme violence metric): Volatile due to population. Recently ticked to 2.1/100k, slightly above Canada's 1.61.
• Crime Rates (Safety trend): From 2015-2025, violent crime rose (but remains below national average) while petty theft fell.
• Clearance (Police success): Kingston solves violent crime at above-average rates (63% vs 54% nationally), though non-violent clearance matches average (~25%).

The recently released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey offers key insights into safety trends in Lethbridge compared to provincial and national averages:

• Homicides: As the ultimate indicator of severe violence, tracking homicides is vital. Lethbridge’s rate has trended down to 1.41 per 100,000, falling below the Canadian average of 1.61.
• Clearance Rates: This measures how effectively police solve crimes. Lethbridge consistently beats averages: its non-violent clearance rate rose to 40% (vs. Canada's 26%), and its violent clearance rate stands at 56% (vs. Canada's 54%).

Overall, Lethbridge shows positive trajectory with strong police resolution rates and declining homicide rates relative to its own past and national averages.

(Additional data: StatCan CSI Table)

The recently released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey highlights how London compares nationally:

• Homicides: (Measures extreme violence) London consistently stays below the Canadian average, sitting at 1.1 per 100k in 2025.
• Crime Rates: (Measures crime volume) From 2015-2025, London saw violent crime rise, but "Theft under $5,000" surged significantly, bucking Canada's decline.
• Clearance Rates: (Measures police case resolution) London police generally solve a higher percentage of crimes than national/provincial averages, despite a 2022 dip.

Overall: London remains safer than average for severe violence, but faces a notable rise in property crime and minor theft compared to national trends.

Je m'excuse de ne pas parler français ; ce message a donc été traduit.

L'Enquête sur la déclaration uniforme de la criminalité, publiée récemment, met en lumière des tendances clés concernant la sécurité publique à Montréal :

• Homicides (indicateur de violence grave) : le taux montréalais est passé de 3,92 pour 100 000 habitants en 1981 à 1,12 en 2025, se situant désormais bien en dessous de la moyenne canadienne de 1,61.
• Taux de criminalité (évolutions spécifiques de la sécurité) : entre 2015 et 2025, la plupart des infractions à Montréal ont diminué (vols, introductions par effraction, méfaits), bien que les crimes violents et les fraudes aient augmenté (suivant ainsi la tendance nationale).
• Taux de résolution (efficacité policière) : le SPVM a résolu 58 % des affaires de crimes violents et 27 % des affaires de crimes non violents en 2025, ces deux taux étant en hausse et dépassant désormais les moyennes nationales.

Conclusion : Alors qu'elle se situait autrefois au-dessus de la moyenne, Montréal est désormais plus sûre qu'une grande partie du Canada, affichant une baisse à long terme de la criminalité grave parallèlement à une augmentation des taux de résolution policière.

The recently released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey provides an objective, multi-year look at safety and policing in Nanaimo.

• Homicides (Data): As the primary metric of extreme violence, Nanaimo's homicide rate per 100,000 plummeted from a peak of 4.16 in 2021 down to 1.55, dropping below the Canadian average of 1.61.
• Non-Violent Clearance (Data): Reflecting how effectively property and minor crimes are solved, Nanaimo’s rate rose to 25%, notably outperforming the BC average of 18%.
• Violent Clearance (Data): Tracking solved violent offenses, Nanaimo has steadily declined to 31%, trailing BC (35%) and lagging far behind Canada (54%).

Insight: While severe violence has decreased and property crime resolution is strong, solving violent offenses remains a significant challenge for Nanaimo.

The latest Uniform Crime Reporting Survey shows how the Ottawa compares to Canada:

• Homicides (Severe Safety): Consistently below the national average, indicating low extreme violence.
• Crime Rates (Prevalence): Violent crime is below the Canadian average, but theft under $5k surged locally while falling nationally.
• Clearance Rates (Police Success): Ottawa consistently lags Ontario and Canada in solving both violent and non-violent crimes.

Takeaway: The region is historically safer from severe violence than Canada overall, but struggles with rising minor thefts and below-average police clearance rates.

Je m'excuse, je ne parle pas français ; ce message a donc été traduit.

Les données issues de l'Enquête uniforme de déclaration de crimes, publiée récemment, révèlent des changements importants dans la région :

• Homicides : Le taux reste constamment inférieur à la moyenne nationale, s'établissant à 0,27 pour 100 000 habitants en 2025. Le suivi des homicides est crucial, car il constitue l'indicateur définitif de la violence extrême et du niveau de sécurité.
• Taux de criminalité : La plupart des infractions (vols, infractions liées aux drogues, méfaits) ont diminué entre 2015 et 2025, un élément clé pour comprendre la sécurité publique au quotidien et la victimisation.
• Taux de résolution : En 2025, la police a résolu 61 % des affaires de crimes violents et 34 % des affaires de crimes non violents. Cet indicateur met en évidence l'efficacité des forces de l'ordre.

En résumé : La région demeure historiquement sûre, avec des taux d'homicide inférieurs à la moyenne canadienne, tandis que la police locale a réussi à améliorer les taux de résolution des crimes non violents pour les aligner sur les tendances nationales.

StatsCan recently released the Uniform Crime Reporting Survey.

• Homicides: This extreme violence indicator shows Peterborough's homicide rate rose to 2.72 per 100k, now exceeding the Canadian average (1.61).
• Crime Rates: Reflecting local safety, specific trends show general violent crime remains below national averages, but theft under $5k rose while Canada's fell. Other Criminal Code Violations showed a massive jump.
• Clearance Rates: Measuring police efficacy, Peterborough's clearance rates consistently outperform Ontario and Canada for both violent and non-violent crimes.

Insight: Peterborough police solve crimes at exceptionally high rates. However, the city faces a challenging rise in minor property crime and a recent, atypical spike in homicides compared to its past and the national average.

Je m'excuse, je ne parle pas français ; ce message a donc été traduit.

Statistique Canada a récemment publié les données de l'Enquête sur la déclaration uniforme de la criminalité. Voici comment se situe la ville de Québec :

• Homicides : Cet indicateur clé de sécurité montre que le taux d'homicides à Québec a chuté de 80 % depuis 1981 pour atteindre 0,45 pour 100 000 habitants, un chiffre nettement inférieur à la moyenne canadienne de 1,61.
• Taux de criminalité : Ils reflètent la prévalence réelle de la criminalité. Bien que les crimes violents aient légèrement augmenté, la plupart des autres catégories (méfaits, introductions par effraction) ont diminué et demeurent bien en deçà des niveaux nationaux.
• Taux de résolution : Ils témoignent de l'efficacité policière. Le taux de résolution des crimes violents à Québec (59 %) dépasse désormais celui du Canada (54 %).

En bref : La ville de Québec demeure exceptionnellement sûre. Elle affiche un volume de criminalité remarquablement bas par rapport aux moyennes nationales, tout en bénéficiant d'une résolution des affaires de plus en plus efficace de la part des forces de l'ordre.

The recently released Uniform Crime Reporting Survey shows a mixed picture for Red Deer.

Homicides (Data 1): A key safety indicator. Red Deer's rate fell from a 2021 peak of 4.79 to 1.73, nearing Canada's average (1.61).

Clearance Rates (Data 2): Measures how effectively police solve crimes. Red Deer trails benchmarks, resolving only 22% of non-violent and 41% of violent crimes.

More severity trends are available in the crime rate dataset.

Summary: While extreme violence has dropped significantly back to national norms, Red Deer continues to lag in solving both violent and non-violent crimes compared to provincial and national peers.