How often did the favourite to win GOTY not win?
2014: Dragon Age Inquisition: This probably was the favourite to win GOTY. I’d argue just about every other game nominated was better, but considering this was the first year of at the time next gen consoles, I get why the jury would want to nominate something like this, and DQI was voted GOTY from a bunch of other sites.
2015: The Witcher III: Yeah, this was probably the favourite also.
2016: Overwatch: This was either the favourite or a very close second favourite.
2017: The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild: I think the only reason why people at the time thought this game wouldn’t win was “the bias against Japanese games” narrative going on around the time.
2018: God of War: Arguably the first true Game Awards upset. I, along with many people expected RDR2 to easily claim this award. Indeed it won most of the other awards, but God of War won the big prize.
2019: Sekiro: This one really surprised me, because I was fully expecting RE2 Remake to take this one, considering how highly it was rated on other sites at the time.
2020: The Last of Us Part II: As much as haters would like to believe otherwise, the likelihood of this game not winning GOTY was extremely unlikely,
2021: It Takes Two: Deathloop was unquestionably the favourite here, and the fact that it only went home with two awards was shocking. Granted IMO, it’s probably a good thing that it didn’t win GOTY, as for me at least, it was easily the weakest of the six nominees.
2022: Elden Ring: No surprises here.
2023: Baldur’s Gate 3: Before 2023 started, it was looking like an easy win for Tears of the Kingdom. Then awards season came along, and it would’ve been more of an upset if they actually did win the award over BG3.
2024: Astro Bot: Not as guaranteed as some of the other winners, but still a fairly predictable one. As much as Black Myth fanboys would like to believe otherwise (note that I said fanboys not fans) Astro Bot was unlikely to lose this year.
2025: Claire Obscure Expedition 33: If this game somehow didn’t win, it would’ve been the greatest upset since Buster Douglas beat Mike Tyson.