How do you assess loan quality in Chinese banks? NPL ratios don't tell the full story
I've been looking at Chinese banks lately and specifically China Merchants Bank. It looks cheap on paper. But I don't trust the numbers
I've pulled the standard multiples. Price to book. Price to earnings. Return on equity.
But I'm stuck on one thing, which is basically loan portfolio quality. The issue is that I don't know how to assess it and the bank reports non performing loans. But I don't know how much I trust those numbers. I don't know the real default risk
The market values Chinese banks differently. Some investors look at assets. Others look at earnings growth. Some focus on the state backing. It's not like evaluating a US bank
I need to understand what actually matters. How do you value a bank in a system where the government can step in? Is it even worth looking at loan quality? Or is it all about the macro picture?
I'm trying to be thorough. But I'm hitting a wall. Where do you find reliable data on loan portfolio quality for Chinese banks? And how do you actually interpret it?