u/MainMarket-Gamer

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Panthers one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/carolina-panthers

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? You won the division and I've got you dropping to third. Same 8-9, but the regression signals all lean down. Am I underrating the division winner?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Dolphins one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/miami-dolphins

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? I'll be straight with you, this is the least flattering page in the whole book. You return 51% of your production, the lowest in the league by ten points, and my model has the roster 28th and projects another 7-10. Every regression signal I track points down, none point up. But 51% returning also means the model is grading a team that barely exists yet, and Hafley is year one. Is this a rebuild I'm scoring as a bad roster?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Raiders one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/las-vegas-raiders

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Las Vegas is one of the most one-sided buy-low reads on my whole board, 21 signals pointing up and zero pointing down off a 3-14 season. You also had the biggest draft haul in the AFC West at 10 picks with Mendoza going first overall. And the model still only gets you to 7-10, because you drew the 9th-hardest schedule in the league and gave up 64 sacks last year. Is the line rebuild enough to make that projection look low, or is 7-10 already generous?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Raiders one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/las-vegas-raiders

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Las Vegas is one of the most one-sided buy-low reads on my whole board, 21 signals pointing up and zero pointing down off a 3-14 season. You also had the biggest draft haul in the AFC West at 10 picks with Mendoza going first overall. And the model still only gets you to 7-10, because you drew the 9th-hardest schedule in the league and gave up 64 sacks last year. Is the line rebuild enough to make that projection look low, or is 7-10 already generous?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Bucs one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/tampa-bay-buccaneers

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? I have Tampa winning the NFC South at 9-8, and I want to be honest that it is not really a compliment. The regression signals lean down, not up, and the offense converted at exactly the league rate last year, 14.3 yards per point against a 14.3 median. The reason you're my projected division winner is the schedule, 27th-hardest of 32. Is that fair, or is there something about this roster that actually got better and I'm giving all the credit to the draw?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Ravens one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/baltimore-ravens

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Baltimore went 8-9 but 1-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer, and brings back 81% of its production, the most of any team on my most-improved board. Add one of the five softest schedules in the league and the model gets you to 9-8 in Jesse Minter's first year. Is 9-8 too cautious for a roster with Henry and that much continuity, or is the interior line churn the reason to stay cautious?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every NFL team, all 32, each with its own writeup. Here's the Commanders one:

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/washington-commanders

It's got the returning production breakdown, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Washington went 5-12 but 3-3 inside the NFC East, and my model reads that as a buy: every regression signal points up and none point down. It still only gets you to 7-10 and fourth in the division though, and a big part of that is drawing the 3rd-hardest schedule in the league. Was 5-12 the roster, or the schedule around it?

Hey all — Nova opens the season tonight at home against William & Mary, 6pm.

I run a site that does pregame emails before every game, then box scores, highlights and a recap after. Free, and only for the teams you follow. Wrote up a Villanova 2026 preview too — Maddocks, the Louisville trip, where the model has them landing.

Preview: https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/villanova-wildcats

Nova page: https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/villanova-wildcats

Hey all — Frogs open in Dublin Saturday at noon eastern, which is about as strange a start to a season as you'll get.

I put together a TCU 2026 preview a while back, and I also run a site that does pregame emails before every game plus box scores, highlights and a write-up after. Free, and only for the teams you follow.

Preview: https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/tcu-horned-frogs

Frogs page: https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/tcu-horned-frogs

Noon kick from Ireland is a rough one for anybody's body clock, so if you sleep through it the recap'll be in your inbox. Go Frogs 🐸

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a 2026 preseason preview for all 32 NFL teams, each with its own writeup. Here's the Cowboys one

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/dallas-cowboys

Returning production, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, and the schedule with a win probability on every game.

Heads up, you'll hit a paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 opens the whole thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Dallas went 7-9-1 and the offense wasn't the problem. Prescott was 3rd in the league in passing yards, Pickens 3rd in receiving, and you outgained opponents by 15 yards a game. Then the defense gave up 30.1 a game, dead last in the NFL. Now 2026 hands you the second-hardest schedule in the league. Fixable, or is this a 7-10 team again?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a 2026 preseason preview for all 32 NFL teams, each with its own writeup. Here's the Cowboys one

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/dallas-cowboys

Returning production, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, and the schedule with a win probability on every game.

Heads up, you'll hit a paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 opens the whole thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Dallas went 7-9-1 and the offense wasn't the problem. Prescott was 3rd in the league in passing yards, Pickens 3rd in receiving, and you outgained opponents by 15 yards a game. Then the defense gave up 30.1 a game, dead last in the NFL. Now 2026 hands you the second-hardest schedule in the league. Fixable, or is this a 7-10 team again?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a 2026 preseason preview for all 32 NFL teams, each with its own writeup. Here's the Patriots one

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/new-england-patriots

Returning production, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, and the schedule with a win probability on every game.

Heads up, you'll hit a paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 opens the whole thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? New England went 14-3 and my model has you 6th, projecting 10-7. The margins were thinner than the record: 7-3 in one-score games, and an offense that needed fewer yards per point than the median. Both regress first. Maye's 31 touchdown passes were third in the league and that part's real. Where does the fall come from?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a 2026 preseason preview for all 32 NFL teams, each with its own writeup. Here's the Broncos one

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/denver-broncos

Returning production, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, and the schedule with a win probability on every game.

Heads up, you'll hit a paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 opens the whole thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Denver won the AFC West at 14-3 and my model has the roster 9th, not top five, and I'll own that this is the one I'm least sure about. The case against 14-3 is that you went 9-2 in games decided by a touchdown, the best one-score record in the league, and that's the first thing to regress. The case for you is that the defense was genuinely absurd: 68 sacks, most in the NFL by eleven, with Bonitto at 14. Add Waddle to Bo Nix and 95% of the roster is back. My model still projects 9-8. So tell me I'm wrong, because a lot of Denver's 2025 looks real to me and the numbers keep pointing down.

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a 2026 preseason preview for all 32 NFL teams, each with its own writeup. Here's the Chiefs one

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/kansas-city-chiefs

Returning production, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, and the schedule with a win probability on every game.

Heads up, you'll hit a paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 opens the whole thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Kansas City went 6-11 and my model still has the roster 12th, because the record and the tape are telling two different stories. You outscored opponents by 34 points across the season and finished five games under .500. One line explains it: 1-9 in games decided by a touchdown, the worst one-score record in the league. That's the least repeatable thing in football. Mahomes threw 11 picks in 14 games, Kenneth Walker III arrives off a 1,027-yard season to replace Kareem Hunt, and the model projects 9-8. Was 6-11 the team, or was it nine coin flips landing the same way?

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a 2026 preseason preview for all 32 NFL teams, each with its own writeup. Here's the Chiefs one

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/nfl-preview-2026/kansas-city-chiefs

Returning production, free agency in and out, the draft class, a projected depth chart, and the schedule with a win probability on every game.

Heads up, you'll hit a paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Promo code JOHNMADDEN1OF1 opens the whole thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Kansas City went 6-11 and my model still has the roster 12th, because the record and the tape are telling two different stories. You outscored opponents by 34 points across the season and finished five games under .500. One line explains it: 1-9 in games decided by a touchdown, the worst one-score record in the league. That's the least repeatable thing in football. Mahomes threw 11 picks in 14 games, Kenneth Walker III arrives off a 1,027-yard season to replace Kareem Hunt, and the model projects 9-8. Was 6-11 the team, or was it nine coin flips landing the same way?