u/MainMarket-Gamer

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Mercer

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/mercer-bears

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: 8-0 in the SoCon and an offense that finished 3rd in FCS in total yards and 2nd passing at 319 a game. The defense was better than it gets credit for too, 2nd in the country in success rate allowed and 8th against the run.

The pushback: Braden Atkinson's 3,611 yards and 34 touchdowns are gone and only 23.6% of the offense returns, so the unit that won you the league is being rebuilt. And the one defensive flaw was a big one, 123rd in explosiveness allowed, meaning drives got stopped until they didn't. Model says 7-5, one of my stronger sell signals in FCS.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

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Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's ETSU

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/east-tennessee-state-buccaneers

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: the offense was balanced and productive, 14th in FCS in total yards, 13th rushing, 25th passing and 21st in scoring. 5-1 at home, and all four losses to FCS teams came by a combined 21 points. My power rating has ETSU 34th.

The pushback: only 22.6% of offensive production returns, which is one of the lowest figures I have. Devontae Houston's 1,008 yards and 12 touchdowns walk out with it. The pass defense was also 114th at 264 a game. Model says 7-5.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

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Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Chattanooga

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/chattanooga-mocs

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: the offense had real juice. 16th in FCS in explosiveness, 22nd rushing, 43rd in scoring, and it hung 63 on Stetson, 49 at Samford and 45 on Furman. Josh Williams is back after 44 catches for 585, and 58.6% of the defense returns.

The pushback: that defense was 105th in yards per play and 103rd on third down, so it could not get off the field, and 33 points a game showed it. The scoreboard swung wildly, 63-0 one week and 17-63 at Mercer another. Camden Orth is gone and I have the quarterback job unsettled with only 33% of the offense returning. Model says 4-8.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Which Chattanooga is the real one, the team that scored 63 or the one that gave up 63?

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Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Towson

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/towson-tigers

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: Andrew Indorf is back and settled after 2,344 yards with 16 touchdowns against 4 picks, and the passing game was 37th in FCS. The defense held up better than the record, 31st in yards per play and 34th in explosiveness allowed, so it wasn't giving up chunk plays. And the weirdest number in my file: 5-2 on the road, 1-4 at home.

The pushback: the run game was 111th at 105 yards a game, which put everything on Indorf, and the defense returns 27.6% of its production. John Dunmore's 54 catches for 633 are gone. Model says 5-7.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Youngstown State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/youngstown-state-penguins

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: the offense was one of the five best in FCS. 3rd in yards per play, 5th in total yards, 8th in scoring, 5th in offensive EPA, and it barely turned the ball over, eight giveaways all season. Beau Brungard is back and settled after 3,230 yards with 26 touchdowns against 3 picks. My power rating has YSU 13th.

The pushback: the defense was 109th against the pass and 112th in explosiveness allowed, and it returns 32.5% of its production. The plus-11 turnover margin that covered some of that was 6th in FCS and regresses. Max Tomczak's 70 catches for 1,021 are gone too. Model says 6-5.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Can Brungard outscore that pass defense again, or does it have to actually get fixed?

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's UAlbany

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/ualbany-great-danes

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: my model has UAlbany as a top-10 buy-low in FCS. The defense gave up the 2nd fewest explosive plays in the country, so nobody was scoring cheap on you, and it ranked 30th in yards per play. The record was also dragged down by a minus-9 turnover margin with only nine takeaways, 117th, and both of those numbers correct.

The pushback: the offense was 119th in total yards, 120th in yards per play, and 120th rushing at 88 a game. Third down was 118th. That is not variance, and I have the quarterback job unsettled. Model says 4-8.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Hampton

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/hampton-pirates

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: my model flags Hampton as a buy-low. 75.7% of offensive production returns, the pass defense was 20th in FCS, and the 41-34 win over Norfolk State is the version of this team worth building on. A minus-6 turnover margin should also correct.

The pushback: 0-8 in the CAA, and my power rating has you 119th of 124. The run defense gave up 231 a game (119th) and the passing offense managed 144 (119th). I have the quarterback job unsettled, with Braden Davis at 4 touchdowns against 8 picks. Model says 3-9.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Weber State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/weber-state-wildcats

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: the ceiling showed up a few times, 42-41 at McNeese and 48-28 over Northern Arizona. The third down defense was 30th in FCS, and a minus-7 turnover margin should correct. Roughly half the roster returns on both sides.

The pushback: the passing game was 106th at 164 yards a game, the offense was 107th in success rate, and the defense gave up 38 a game while ranking 115th in explosiveness allowed. Nobody won the quarterback job last year and I still have it unsettled. Model says 5-7.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's UC Davis

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/uc-davis-aggies

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: the offense was elite. 5th in FCS in success rate, 5th in yards per play, 10th in total yards, 12th passing. 9-4 with a playoff berth, and my power rating has you 10th in the subdivision.

The pushback: Caden Pinnick's 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns are gone, and only 29.6% of the offense returns. The defense was 109th in yards allowed and 104th against the run, so it can't carry a rebuild. Model says 8-4.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Southern Utah

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/southern-utah-thunderbirds

Usual disclaimer: I probably got some of it wrong. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: that offense was quietly one of the best in FCS. 9th in success rate, 11th rushing, 15th in scoring. 7-5, and my power rating has you 18th.

The pushback: only 18.7% of offensive production returns, the lowest of any team I've run. Joshua Dye's 1,660 yards and 24 touchdowns are gone, and I have the quarterback job unsettled. Model says 7-5.

First page is free. If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Portland State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/portland-state-vikings

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong, and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good, and it's more than 1-11 suggests: Portland State returns 87% of its production, including 100% on offense. That is the most of any team I've run in FCS. John-Keawe Sagapolutele is back and settled at quarterback, the pass defense was 22nd in the country, and the 40-35 win at Cal Poly showed what this group looks like when it isn't beating itself. My model has PSU as a buy-low, largely because the turnover margin was minus-15 with 28 giveaways, 123rd in FCS, and that is the single most correctable thing in football. The 2026 schedule grades as the softest in the subdivision.

Where my model pushes back: the run defense gave up 257 yards a game, which was dead last in FCS, and 42.7 points a game, 123rd. That is not turnover luck, that is the front seven. Returning 74% of it only helps if the problem was youth. Model says 2-10.

First page is free. If you want the rest and hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up. Not trying to nickel and dime a sub that's letting me post.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Montana State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/montana-state-bobcats

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong, and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: basically all of it. 14-2, 8-0 in the Big Sky, and a 35-34 win over Illinois State in the final. The offense was 2nd in FCS in success rate and EPA, 4th rushing. The defense was 17th in yards and 2nd with 27 takeaways. Then 75% of production returns, including Justin Lamson (3,172 yards, 26 TD, 3 INT), Adam Jones (1,093 and 15) and Taco Dowler (77 catches, 1,025). Power rating has you 1st in FCS.

Where my model pushes back, and it's narrow: plus-16 turnover margin, 2nd in FCS, regresses no matter how good you are. Julius Davis and his 1,123 rushing yards are gone. Model says 10-2, which is less a warning than an admission that plus-16 isn't a repeatable plan.

First page is free. If you want the rest and hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS opens it up. Not trying to nickel and dime a sub that's letting me post.

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Montana

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/montana-grizzlies

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong, and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: that offense was one of the best in FCS. 3rd in scoring at 41 a game, 8th in total yards, 6th passing, 4th in explosiveness. Keali'i Ah Yat is back after 4,070 yards and 33 touchdowns and made my preseason All-America team. 13-2, a run to the title game, and my power rating has Montana 2nd in the subdivision.

Where my model pushes back: the defense allowed 400 yards a game (87th) and 258 through the air (113th). What covered it was 27 takeaways and a plus-14 turnover margin, 3rd in the country, and that number regresses hard. The defense returns 27% of its production, and Michael Wortham's 85 catches for 1,224 are gone. Model says 9-3, one of my stronger sell signals in FCS.

If you hit the paywall, the code LEECORSOROCKS unlocks the whole thing free. I'm not asking this sub for money.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Montana

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/montana-grizzlies

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong, and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: that offense was one of the best in FCS. Third in scoring at 41 a game, 8th in total yards, 6th passing and 4th in explosiveness. Keali'i Ah Yat is back and settled after 4,070 yards with 33 touchdowns against 9 picks, and he's on my preseason All-America team. 13-2, a run to the title game, and my power rating has Montana 2nd in the subdivision.

Where my model pushes back: the defense allowed 400 yards a game, 87th in FCS, and 258 through the air, which is 113th. What covered that was takeaways, 27 of them and a plus-14 turnover margin, 3rd in the country. That number regresses harder than any other in football, and the defense returns 27% of its production. Michael Wortham and his 85 catches for 1,224 are gone too. Model says 9-3, and this is one of my strongest sell signals in FCS.

Does the defense hold up once the turnover luck normalizes?

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Idaho

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/idaho-vandals

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong, and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: 4-8 undersells this offense. Idaho was 39th in FCS in yards per play, 30th rushing and 27th in offensive EPA, and it took two FBS teams to the wire, 13-10 at Washington State and 31-28 at San Jose State. Joshua Wood is back and settled at quarterback after 1,898 yards with 14 touchdowns against 5 picks, and 75% of offensive production returns. My model flags Idaho as a buy-low, and the 2026 schedule grades as the second softest in FCS.

Where my model pushes back: the defense returns 30%, and it only forced 11 takeaways last year, 107th in the subdivision. Idaho also went 1-5 on the road. Thomas Ford Jr. inherits a decent offense and a defense he has to rebuild in year one. Model says 5-7.

Does Ford get enough out of that defense to turn the soft schedule into a winning record?

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Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's North Dakota

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/north-dakota-fighting-hawks

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: that defense was excellent. First in FCS on third down, 5th against the run at 104 a game, 8th in yards per play, and 2nd in the country with 27 takeaways. And 8-6 badly undersells it, because five of the six losses came by a combined 17 points, including 38-35 at Kansas State, 24-23 at Montana and 15-10 to North Dakota State. My power rating has UND 3rd in all of FCS. Jerry Kaminski is back and settled at quarterback after 2,570 yards and 26 touchdowns, with 67% of the offense returning.

Where my model pushes back: the defense returns 25.8%. That is the unit that made this team, and roughly three quarters of it is gone. Sawyer Seidl and his 897 yards and 13 touchdowns are out of the backfield too. The offense being the part that comes back is a strange shape for a team whose identity was stopping people. Model says 8-4, which is basically last year's real quality with a new defense.

Can Schmidt rebuild that defense fast enough, or does 2026 turn into a shootout year?

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Indiana State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/indiana-state-sycamores

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: the 24-12 win at South Dakota State was a real result, not a fluke afternoon. And when this offense hit, it hit. Indiana State ranked 5th in FCS in explosiveness, meaning the successful plays went for real yardage. Elijah Owens is settled at quarterback and Louisville transfer Brady Allen gives the room an actual arm behind him. Almost 73% of the defense returns.

Where my model pushes back: that defense gave up 498 yards a game, which was last in FCS, plus 242 on the ground (121st) and a 50% third down rate (120th).

Returning 73% of a unit is a good thing when the problem was youth. It is a harder sell when the unit finished 124th out of 124. The offense had the same shape in reverse, 5th in explosiveness but 121st on third down and 118th in success rate, so the drives died before the big plays could matter. Model says 4-8.

Is the defense returning intact the fix, or the problem?

Tell me what I got wrong.

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Illinois State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/illinois-state-redbirds

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: 12-5 with a playoff run, a 29-28 win in Fargo, and 9-1 away from Normal. The offense was 31st in scoring and 26th on third down, the run defense was 24th, and 26 takeaways was fifth most in FCS. My power rating has the Redbirds 6th in the subdivision, which is the highest grade I have on any 8-4 projection.

Where my model pushes back: 31.8% of production returns, and only 14.8% on offense. Tommy Rittenhouse (3,568 yards, 40 touchdowns) and Daniel Sobkowicz (83 catches, 1,141 yards, 19 touchdowns) are both gone, and the projected replacement at quarterback has 83 career passing yards. Dylan Lord and Luke Mailander both return with 700-yard seasons, so the targets are there. The arm is the question. Model says 8-4.

Does Spack reload the way he usually does, or is this the year the turnover actually shows up?

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Hey all. I spent the offseason building 2026 preseason previews for every FBS team and then did all 124 FCS teams too, because nobody does this for your league. Here's the William & Mary one

https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/william-mary-tribe

It's got returning production, portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Same disclaimer I gave over in r/FCS: I probably got some things wrong. FCS data is genuinely hard to aggregate, my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026 yet, and I'd rather hear it from you than leave it up. Tell me what's off and I'll correct it.

The good: that pass defense was real, 15th in FCS at 180 yards allowed a game, and Tyler Hughes had a genuinely excellent year with 2,330 passing and 20 touchdowns against 3 picks plus 670 rushing and 11 more scores. 7-5 with a 6-3 league mark is a solid season and the No. 47 power rating is respectable.

Where my model pushes back: W&M won 66.7% of its league games while getting outgained by about 4 yards a game, which usually looks more like 50%. Add a 4-3 mark in one-score games and a plus-6 turnover margin and it grades as the biggest sell-high I have in FCS. Then Hughes leaves and Noah Brannock takes over with 188 career passing yards. Model says 6-6. Was that 6-3 the real team, or did it break your way?

Tell me what I got wrong.