u/Phatbrew

Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low—and the ripple effects could reshape the entire midterm map.

Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall & Molly Jong-Fast , break down new Reuters/Ipsos polling showing Donald Trump dropping from 35% to 33%, described as the lowest of his presidency and potentially unprecedented for a modern president heading into a midterm. They discuss why much of the political “insider” world may be underestimating just how rough the environment looks for Republicans, even as Democrats continue to struggle with their own brand problems.

The discussion then zooms into the Senate battlefield: Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and North Carolina. With Democrats needing to win five of seven, the episode explores which races look plausible, which are still major question marks, and why certain Democratic candidates (and campaign styles) may fit their states better than the national party image.

The episode also digs into broader forces driving voter anger—especially economic frustration and a sense that “there are no rules anymore”—and why Trump is being blamed for more of it than many expected. The panel contrasts the D.C./New York political bubble with the mood in the rest of the country, and closes with a blunt assessment: sometimes campaigns don’t have good options, and Trump appears to be leaning into the very image that’s dragging him down.

Emergency physician Dr. Rob Davidson recalls a parent who refused their child’s blood transfusion unless the hospital could guarantee the donor had never received a COVID vaccine. He warns that Trump and RFK Jr. are intensifying medical distrust that can put defenseless children at risk. #RFKJr #DonaldTrump #Vaccines #Healthcare #Misinformation

00:00 A Parent Refuses Their Child’s Blood Transfusion
00:41 The Children Have No Say
01:17 Parents Believe They’re Protecting Their Kids
02:15 What Is Driving RFK Jr.?
03:10 The MAHA Influencer Grift
04:36 RFK Jr.’s Political Opportunity
05:51 Trump Targets the Hepatitis B Vaccine
07:02 The Vaccine That Cut Cases by 99%
07:37 The Senator Who Enabled RFK Jr.

Why didn’t Major Jason Watson simply resign before protesting Trump? He explains why a quiet departure would have been ignored—and details the career, retirement, benefits and personal relationships he expects to lose because of his decision.

00:00 Why Didn’t He Simply Resign?
01:22 “Nobody Cares”
02:44 The Sacrifice Was the Message
04:16 What Punishment Could He Face?
05:33 What He Did Was Otherwise Legal
07:33 Losing His Retirement and Benefits
08:17 Becoming “Radioactive”

The separation of church and state is under mounting legal and political pressure. Frank Figliuzzi and FFRF legal counsel Chris Line explain the constitutional foundation, Trump’s campaign against the Johnson Amendment and the court battle that could transform churches into political operations. #ChurchAndState #Trump #ChristianNationalism #Constitution

Full episode: https://youtube.com/li...

00:00 Is Church-State Separation in the Constitution?
01:47 The Johnson Amendment Is in Jeopardy
02:19 Churches Deliberately Test the IRS
03:03 Why FFRF Challenged the Government
04:21 Trump Tries to Destroy the Amendment
04:54 The Government Switches Sides
05:18 The “Private Family Discussion” Loophole
06:33 The Court Battle Moves Forward
07:20 The Law Remains in Effect—for Now

More than 200 days at sea. No port calls. No clear end in sight.
Retired Marine combat pilot Amy McGrath joins Bobby Jones to explain what life aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln really looks like—and why anyone calling these sailors “weak” has absolutely no idea what they’re talking about.

From sleep debt and burnout to destroyed supply hubs, disappearing allies, questionable war planning, and aircraft-carrier redesigns based on looks, Bobby and Amy break down how America’s Navy ended up stretched to the limit.

As Amy puts it: “The sailors aren’t failing. They are working their butts off. The system is consuming more readiness faster than the Navy can keep up.”
And when the people at sea are sacrificing without a clear mission or end state, one question remains:
What exactly are we asking them to sacrifice for?
Subscribe to Anchor Watch for frank conversations about military leadership, national security, and the stories landlubbers keep getting wrong.

00:00 Welcome to Anchor Watch
01:01 “The sailors aren’t failing”
03:19 What 200+ days at sea does to a person
04:56 Sailors are part of the weapon system
06:39 “There is no green zone at sea”
09:03 Anger, betrayal, and a mission nobody can explain
13:58 Was there ever a real plan?
15:01 The experts forced out of the Pentagon
17:02 The tyranny of distance
18:38 The video that exposed the supply crisis
20:10 “Your Plan B should have been allies”
22:17 America gutted its logistics fleet
23:20 Why is Hegseth campaigning during a war?
25:00 Trump says the deployment wasn’t long enough
26:00 How strained is the Navy?
27:33 Lessons learned—and painfully relearned
29:33 Enemies embraced, allies insulted
31:39 Trump wants to redesign the aircraft carrier
35:00 Billions spent making the fleet worse?
36:28 Where is Congress?
37:23 A Navy ship goes dark for four days
39:02 “Where are the hearings?”
41:23 “He sucks at the big things”
42:35 Leadership can break the strongest military
45:23 Three ways this conflict could end
47:10 Amy’s podcast, Truth in the Barrel
49:04 Closing

Rick Wilson and Matthew Dowd break down the final stretch of primary season—and why candidate quality, authenticity, and the ability to speak plainly may matter more than ideological labels.

They examine Florida’s races, Donald Trump’s weakening standing with independent voters, the increasingly chaotic direction of MAGA primaries, and the possibility that Trump could become a liability for Republican candidates in the general election. They also discuss the political cost of Trump’s foreign-policy turmoil, Pete Hegseth’s apparent presidential ambitions, Jon Ossoff’s rise as a national communicator, and the GOP’s narrowing Senate map.

What do you think: Is Florida truly competitive, and will Republican candidates keep Trump at a distance this fall? Tell us in the comments.

Subscribe for more Strategy Session conversations and political analysis from The Lincoln Project.

00:00 Welcome to the Strategy Session
00:51 Florida’s primary and the issues driving voters
01:52 Candidate quality matters more than ideology
03:21 Why voters want accountability, not reconciliation
05:26 Florida’s MAGA primary circus
06:48 Could the GOP get even more extreme after Trump?
07:46 Trump’s numbers crash with independents
09:21 Why Florida could be competitive
10:43 “The magic is gone”
11:31 Echoes of the 2006 and 2018 wave elections
12:40 Will Republican voters stay home?
13:35 Trump as a general-election liability
14:34 Pete Hegseth’s Iowa ambitions
15:48 Trump’s attacks on U.S. allies
17:29 A world built for oligarchs
19:35 Mike Johnson’s revealing Iran comment
20:33 Jon Ossoff’s political rise
22:05 The GOP’s shrinking Senate map
22:53 Ossoff triggers MAGA over Natalie Harp
25:40 Why Flock alarms Rick Wilson
26:26 What’s coming next

Trump has been shaking up US foreign policy throughout his second term, but now he's throwing North Korea back into the mix. Edwin Eisendrath and Susan J. Demas discuss that and more!

Join the Lincoln Square community on Substack today for unparalleled insights, expert commentary, and news from your favorite pro-democracy voices. Subscribe for free at: https://bit.ly/4jCEUFj

This week is special: recorded live in front of our audience at the Leicester Square Theatre in London and hosted by Byline Times @BylineTimes -- we're delivering part II of Rick's UK adventures across the pond. The Lincoln Project's Rick Wilson and Maya May sit down with The Bunker's Alex Andreou and Naomi Smith @bunkerpod.bsky.social — with a surprise appearance from Count Binface @CountBinface — for a transatlantic reckoning on US and UK politics. Together they compare what each democracy is getting right and wrong, make the case that the UK has to correct course before it's too late, and dig into what America can still learn from Britain. It's sharp, funny, and a little bit ominous — exactly the conversation both countries need right now.

Project 2025 called for pregnancy surveillance while promoting “fertility awareness” as an approved alternative to contraception. Andra Watkins explains why the method frequently fails—and how it leaves women without any meaningful reproductive choice. #Project2025 #PregnancySurveillance #ReproductiveRights🤝

00:00 Their Approved Method of Birth Control
00:10 Project 2025’s Pregnancy Surveillance Plan
02:15 The Only “Approved” Contraception
03:01 How Fertility Awareness Works
03:17 Why the Method Fails
03:29 Responsibility Falls Entirely on Women
04:52 The Illusion of Choice
05:19 Women Lose the Right to Refuse
05:49 Selling Submission as Freedom

A Virginia woman told an ICE agent she was a U.S. citizen. His response: “I don't care.” Max Burns and Joel Payne break down the confrontation, the dashcam footage, growing questions about ICE accountability, and what the backlash could mean politically.

#ICE #Trump #Immigration #Virginia #JoelPayne #LincolnSquare

Chapters

00:00 ICE Confrontation in Virginia
00:57 The Dashcam Changes the Story
01:06 ICE's Electric Shock Gloves
01:33 Joel Payne: “Cowards”
03:02 Has the Overton Window on ICE Moved?
04:12 “People Got to Go to Jail”
05:54 The Accountability Problem
06:50 Can States Prosecute ICE Agents?
08:48 What This Means for November
09:35 “There’s a Katrina Basically Every Three Months”

Retired Commander Bobby R. Jones sits down with active-duty Air Force Major Jason Watson, who attracted worldwide attention after protesting the Trump administration in uniform outside the U.S. Capitol. In his first extended conversation with the veteran community, Watson explains why he took the risk, why he believes the administration poses a threat to the constitutional order, and why he does not want other service members following his example.

Watson also discusses potentially illegal military orders, the growing politicization of the armed forces, the personal consequences facing him and his family, and why he believes civilians—not the military—must ultimately defend American democracy. #JasonWatson #USMilitary #Trump #Democracy #AnchorWatch

Chapters

00:00 Major Jason Watson Joins Anchor Watch
01:40 Why He Protested in Uniform
03:26 The 22-Day Hunger Strike
06:57 Why Wearing the Uniform Mattered
09:18 Why Other Service Members Should Not Follow Him
12:03 What Troops Should Do With Illegal Orders
16:41 Did Anyone Know About His Plan?
19:09 The Politicization of the Military
24:20 Submitting Himself to Judgment
25:00 Why He Did Not Simply Resign
27:44 What Consequences Could He Face?
30:33 Losing His Career and Benefits
31:53 The Personal Fallout
33:54 His Family’s Reaction
35:35 How History Might Remember Him
37:25 His Current Military Status
42:04 Would He Stay in the Air Force?
42:41 “I Never Intend on Putting That Uniform on Again”
44:15 His Final Warning to America

Frank Figliuzzi speaks with Chris Line, legal counsel for the Freedom From Religion Foundation, about the escalating effort to erase the boundary between church and state. They explain how Donald Trump’s attack on the Johnson Amendment could allow politically active churches to endorse candidates, influence elections, and potentially channel undisclosed money into campaigns.

They also examine Mike Johnson’s reported outreach to pastors, religious messaging from federal agencies, Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon prayer services, and conservative political organizations seeking recognition as churches. With the midterms approaching, could America’s houses of worship become an unregulated political machine? #Trump #ChristianNationalism #ChurchAndState #Politics #Midterms

Chapters

00:00 Democracy, Religion and the Midterms
03:02 Chris Line Joins the Discussion
05:22 What the Johnson Amendment Prohibits
09:52 Is Church-State Separation Constitutional?
11:38 The Johnson Amendment Is in Jeopardy
18:09 Trump Vows to “Destroy” the Amendment
19:46 Most Churches Don’t Want This
24:40 Political Sermons Surge Before Elections
27:24 Mike Johnson’s Reported Meeting With Pastors
28:35 Government Endorsement of Christianity
31:03 Religious Messaging in DHS Recruitment
34:31 Could Churches Become Dark-Money Machines?
38:01 Christian Nationalism Inside the Administration
40:32 Political Organizations Declaring Themselves Churches
42:37 Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon Services
46:36 How Americans Can Report Violations
49:47 Frank’s Final Warning

We all might wish for a blue tsunami in November, but the truth is: this is going to be a battle. Between Trump's potential meddling and the mid-decade redistricting, and despite Trump's historically low polling, we're facing an uphill battle.

But that doesn't mean all is lost. In fact, we could pick up seats in red states.

Jess Piper of Blue Missouri joins Sam and Susan to talk about Dems' chances in the midterms and recent ballot measures in her state.

00:00 Welcome to The Weekly Assignment
01:15 Is the Democratic map expanding?
02:49 Missouri’s ballot-measure battle
03:15 83% of voters reject the power grab
04:44 Connecting Republican votes to real consequences
06:39 Missouri rejects an income-tax scheme
08:23 Where Democrats should invest
10:14 Why progressives struggle with rural voters
11:15 The first rule: Show up
14:19 What voters actually care about
16:15 Missouri Democrats’ expanding roster
18:29 The attack on women’s sports
21:04 Why Republicans need a culture war
22:38 “Commies in the Cornfield”
25:13 Nancy Mace enters her YOLO era
27:06 Kansas targets transgender drivers
30:21 Can Democrats overcome the midterm headwinds?
32:10 Major Jason Watson’s exclusive interview
34:44 Trump’s vaccine executive order
36:10 This week on Lincoln Square
40:14 Weekly assignment: Defend public lands

Trump and RFK Jr. are rewriting America’s childhood vaccine guidance while the country experiences its worst measles outbreak in 35 years. Emergency physician Dr. Rob Davidson joins Lincoln Square executive producer Sam Osterhout to explain why separating vaccines creates new barriers, how misinformation is changing decisions inside doctors’ offices, and what happens when public-health policy is based on Donald Trump’s feelings instead of medical evidence.

They also examine RFK Jr.’s influence, the rollback of hepatitis B recommendations, vaccine hesitancy, Michigan’s critical Senate race, and why affordable universal healthcare must be part of the real fight to make America healthier. #DonaldTrump #RFKJr #Vaccines #Measles #PublicHealth #Healthcare

Chapters

00:00 Trump’s New Childhood Vaccine Order
04:16 What Measles Actually Does
05:53 America Already Solved This Problem
08:09 Trump: “Nothing Bad Can Happen”
11:07 Doctors Confront Vaccine Misinformation
13:51 Patients Are Refusing Tetanus Shots
16:27 What Is Driving RFK Jr.?
20:03 The Hepatitis B Rollback
23:39 How Doctors Can Fight Back
28:50 Michigan’s Crucial Senate Race
33:04 The Families Hurt Most
34:42 America’s Healthcare Crisis
37:01 Where to Find Dr. Rob Davidson