The June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expired today – August 17, 2026. The US has not achieved any of its initial objectives. It is now mainly concerned with opening the Strait of Hormuz without having to accept Iran’s far-reaching demands for ending its blockade of the Strait.
The Trump administration is trying to achieve that goal with a naval blockade, a strategy it employed earlier in the war, and which failed. I will argue that the strategic situation facing the US in the Gulf is much worse now and there is virtually no chance that this second blockade will work. Moreover, that deteriorating strategic situation makes escalation even less attractive.
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CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction
0:29 The MOU expires today
1:23 Why the US is now relying on a naval blockade
2:49 America's four original war aims — and why all four failed
3:40 What America wants now: open the strait, get a nuclear deal
4:58 Iran's goals and its list of demands
7:22 How we got here: the phases of the war
7:38 Phase one — the 40-day air campaign
8:06 Phase two — the first blockade and the surrender document
9:13 Phase three — the tit-for-tat campaign
10:49 Phase four — the second blockade, where we are today
11:24 Bessent's promise of "unprecedented economic hurt"
12:53 Can the second blockade actually work?
14:39 Problem one: the state of the US Navy
17:05 Problem two: stripping East Asia to cover the Gulf
19:17 Problem three: oil, the Red Sea, and drained reserves
21:50 Problem four: Iranian hardliners take control
23:50 Is there an escalation option? Three reasons why not
25:34 The July 6th attack — and what the US isn't doing now
28:15 Iran now holds the escalation card
29:59 Conclusion: the US has no strategy left